I would disagree that there would be more emphasis on the long game. The player who is not as long and has to use a longer iron would have a better chance of making a longer putt with a larger hole. The larger hole may be less of an advantage for the player who hits a wedge shot to within 6ft.
Drew, I honestly don't know what you're talking about at this point, and I don't know where we got off track, either.
Fact: R can stay home because the outcome in CA is decided. >99.9% is a pretty large number. It's beyond "virtual certainty."
Fact: The presidential race, nationwide, is and likely never will reach that level of certainty. If it did, yeah, the thousand people who were going to vote nationally for the losing candidate could stay home. Their votes (for the presidency) wouldn't matter. Even Gary Johnson will probably get over <0.1% of the vote (538 has him at 5.7%).
Things are quite a bit different nationally:
Let's not make this about current politics, though, please, as I said in the OP.
You said "they could have stayed home and the same result would have occured" in regards to theoretical Republican votes in California but then immediately follow that with saying votes for Romney would've mattered. Those two arguments are directly at odds with each other. And regarding your last graphic, things aren't much different nationally: