Recession ang golf: Greenbrier and Sea Island

[PEZGolf]

We know this recession has affected all areas of the economy, and it is going to get much worse. Other threads talk about the Bob Hope Tournament and Chrysler and Ginn Resorts halting sponsorship of its LPGA tournament. Now "Golf World" in its current issue has an article about the "Grandaddy" of golf resorts---the Greenbrier in West Virginia.

CSX, the railroad company, still owns this 700 room hotel and 3 championship golf courses! A railroad company!! They lost $35 million in 2008 and hired Goldman Sachs to analyze whether they should close it, sell it, or do some changes to keep it going. Their labor problems hurt business badly last year, and gambling (that was just approved at referendum) may not be enough to make it profitable.

There is also reference to Sea Island Resorts in Georgiathat laid off 500 workers and asked those remaining to take a pay cut. Here in our area, the "grandaddy" of private clubs, the Yahnundasis, whose golf course was designed by Walter Travis, hired Troon Management to make changes and make the club stop losing money. To young guys and gals who think of being a club pro as a career----watch out because there may not be jobs for all of you. I hope they got a degree in a field that is hiring in case they cannot work in the golf industry.

Let us face it---we love golf or we would not be on this golf forum. But, golf is a recreation, and paid for out of discretionary income. In a tough time like this, golf is going to get hammered, from the top to the bottom. Last year, on another golf forum, a golf course owner and I tried to warn people how bad it was going to be, based on what we had already seen at that point. We were attacked for being alarmists. Guess who was right, and who was wrong? People on the front lines know what is happening better than those who are "observers".

[Guinness23]

The fact that the golf industry is consolidating is not news. It has been for years, have you noticed the country club membership deals over the past 4-5 or more years? I think you are being a bit of an alarmist. It's a recession, a normal part of the business cycle (and it is a bad one), these things will happen quicker. To say "guess who was right......" is one of the more childish things I have read in a while. Mr. Crystal Ball (or Mr. Right if you prefer), you seem to know all and are "on the front lines" can you tell me who is going to win the 4 majors? Your post was ok until you decided you needed to validate yourself and your "superior" prediction skills. Let me know a few months before you see the stock market turning around, that would be a bit more useful to all of us.

[tm22721]

I think you are being a bit of an alarmist.

If Japan's 18 year recession (so far) is any guide, golf membership will decline by 95%.

This is the big one.

[denver_nuggs_15]

Just out of curiousity, how many people actually know what they are talking about? Just because you see the news and listen to the radio and read some online articles does not mean that you know what you are talking about. How many people studied economics?

Half of the things that are said about the economy by "experts" are untrue. Sometimes they say the complete opposite of the truth. Like one guy said that this economic cycle will never end because it's really bad. Good call...economic cycles happen in capitalism. They all turn around. The Great Depression turned around.

Do your own research and stop listening to the media. Consumer Confidence is at an alltime low, which decreases Consumption and leads to negative growth. A really low interest rate leads to less foreign investment and a weaker U.S. dollar. It's not the end of the world. It's a cycle that has been predicted since 2001. It will bounce back...everything does.

[JCDot33]

Honestly, I am tired of hearing about how bad it is ... Yes, we are struggling, yes people are loosing jobs, but do I have to hear about it every night ....

Seriously, if 60% of the US population went out and spent $20 on something frivilous (go buy a new golf shirt on clearance at Dick's or Golfsmith or someplace ... ) that is going to have a bigger effect on the situation than the news media stuffing it down out throats every night.

Economic cycles are, just that, cycles ... there are ups, downs, and turning points, and, as my young mind recalls, there was a period of down turn in the late 80's early 90's. Now, I am no prognosticator, but I am going to bet that we will have prosperity again, and we will have down times again.

[wachesawgolfer]

Economic cycles are, just that, cycles ... there are ups, downs, and turning points, and, as my young mind recalls, there was a period of down turn in the late 80's early 90's. Now, I am no prognosticator, but I am going to bet that we will have prosperity again, and we will have down times again.

The problem this time is people cannot see how we come out of this downturn, unlike other recessions. We have lost our jobs overseas and the credit bubble we have been living on for the past ten years has burst and probably will not return any time soon. What we relied for a robust economy to compensate for the erosion of jobs was the consumer spending more than he or she has, no matter what.

[Trav]

Ugh. The Greenbrier is one of the great golf destinations. Cannot imagine it not being there. If CSX sells, someone will try to make it work. That property has little value without the golf courses.

And if the issue is labor costs, what does that portend for its venerable neighbor, The Homestead?

[kafka01]

If Japan's 18 year recession (so far) is any guide, golf membership will decline by 95%.

Its not the number of people we are talking here - Japan has ridicoulous membership fees compared even to US standards.

During the late 80s the number of rounds played was about 100 Million - now its down to about 80 Million. So people still play golf. Heres some more information i found on a blog about the current situation:

Japan is heading for a recession (depression?) much like the rest of the world. One of the indicators -zhangna.jpg the price to be a member of a golf club. In May of 2007 the price of membership peaked at Y2.64 million ($27,700). That’s just to join! The average price to join a golf club now - Y1.77 million ($18.6K) It’s $20Kish in the Tokyo region and $17Kish in the Osaka region. When stock prices fell in October, investors started selling off their memberships. Tokyo Yomiuri Country Club is one of Japan’s most upscale clubs. The price to join $184,000. And this price is DOWN 40%!

[Guinness23]

Just out of curiousity, how many people actually know what they are talking about? Just because you see the news and listen to the radio and read some online articles does not mean that you know what you are talking about. How many people studied economics?

Well said. It's interesting hearing all this gloom and doom on the news and people just running with it. Today's news about auto sales being the worst in 26 years is a great example. That's right, 26 years, not the worst ever, not the worst since the depression, the worst in 26 years. People need to get a grip and realize that this is a cycle. Yes it may be a bad cycle, but its just part of the process we go through in capitalism. I feel for people who are affected by this, and I know people who are, but the reality is the vast majority of American's have a standard of living that most people in the world would die for. With every situation like this we have there is opportunity. It's the positive and ambitious people that look for and find those opportunities and that is what American ingenuity is all about. After the political season you would think we live in a third world country with how bad the politicians talk about things being. Expectations and perception have a funny way of messing with reality. Wishing you all a prosperous 2009 (and there is prosperity out there).

[PEZGolf]

If Japan's 18 year recession (so far) is any guide, golf membership will decline by 95%.

I am so glad that I do not belong to a private club. If the private clubs in our area all go under and get plowed up to become pasture land, it will have no effect on me or my friends. I think that many private clubs are on their way out anyway. Who really wants to join one? The bankers, lawyers, and stock brokers no longer can have their companies pay their dues, and many members will not pay out of their own pockets. They are dinosaurs that are about to become extinct (not all of them, but many of them).