How do you spot a sandbagger?

[klaymon]

A couple of people said it was "do-able". That doesn't mean it would be likely or a regular occurrence, but it could happen. I'm sitting at 22.4 right now and I shot an 82 in a club tourney last weekend (I then turned around on the second day and shot 96).

[longfornothing]

Those of you that keep saying a 79 is reasonable for a 13 must not understand statistics. Oh well.

I like that restricted rule. That is something I would like our tour to use.

I even understand stats too. I also understand what I have actually witnessed in person even more than I understand stats.

[ks8829]

You can spot an sandbagger when he hits a driver off the fairway or they have a sun tan and carries a 2 iron.

[connor35]

Those of you that keep saying a 79 is reasonable for a 13 must not understand statistics. Oh well.

I have a PhD in statistics (seriously). And it's quite possible.

First, 13 is a snapshot of the last 20 rounds. If the guy is trending better, it's quite reasonable -- his handicap dropping rapidly is proof of that. I'm not saying this particular is not a sandbagger. I am saying that 79 is possible. I'm a 14 handicap. I shot a back nine 39 last Thursday. Am I a sandbagger (I shot 46 on the front)?

A couple of people said it was "do-able". That doesn't mean it would be likely or a regular occurrence, but it could happen. I'm sitting at 22.4 right now and I shot an 82 in a club tourney last weekend (I then turned around on the second day and shot 96).

Exactly. It's rare, but is happens. Across the whole country, there are thousands of 13s. A few every summer will put up rounds of 79.

[connor35]

I think I might have played with one today. He plays at a 13 handicap and dropped a 79 in the first day of a tournament on a course he said he has not played in a long time.

Can you tell us the par, course rating or slope?

For example, on a par 72, a 13 handicap is shooting -6. http://www.popeofslope.com/sandbagging/odds.html This shows that there is a 1:323 chance of that happening for any particular golfer, those are far from long odds. Assuming there are a bunch of golfers in the event the odds that anyone beats their handicap by 6 strokes or more become much shorter. For example, if you have 50 13-handicaps, the probability that at least one shots 79 or better is 14% [1- (322/323)^50 = 0.14]. Most people don't understand that odds for an individual doing something rare vs. the odds of someone (anyone) doing it are quite different. It's rare that a particular number is drawn in the pick 6 lotto. But someone beats those odds and wins the lotto every few weeks. [But you still shouldn't play the lottery]. So just because you're a 13 and haven't shot 79 doesn't mean it's impossible when someone else does.

[Mr.Buckethead]

Par: 72
Rating: 71.8
Slope: 131

Interesting #'s.

Remember

Day one: 79
Day two: 80.

His index history was trending from an 8.9 in March 07 to an 11.1 when he played. Scores in June & July (84, 80, 79, 93, 90, 89, 94, 91, 77, 86, 91, 84, 88, 86, 89). I know some of those aren't used to calculate his handicap but he was tossing in 94's on a course with a slope of 116.