Dean Knuth's Blog Post on the WHS

[iacas]

In the 1970s and 1980s, Dean Knuth, who became known as the "Pope of Slope," created the handicap system as well as the course rating system. He consulted with the USGA through 2002, but hasn't really had a hand in the handicapping since then, and was not involved in the WHS.

Suffice to say, he does not like the WHS, and he wrote an article expressing why:  https://www.popeofslope.com/world-handicap-system.html.

The problem? His article… well, it's bad. Here is a brief (for me!) exploration of that article. Part 1 includes the bulk of his point, right up until the section labeled "The Par Pitfall," here:

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In an effort to create a process that every golf association in the world can accept (One Size Fits All concept), the USGA has downgraded the handicap system in the United States.

The handicapping system has seen almost no changes in the U.S. It's the rest of the world where they've seen the biggest changes.

In the U.S., ESC was replaced by NDB, we have soft and hard caps, and we use 8/20 instead of 10/20 at 96%. Those are the only real changes.

Dean will spend most of the rest of the time talking about par, but — and this cannot be stressed enough — the par is irrelevant. Its role in determining your playing or course handicap does three things only:

• It makes the score you have to shoot to "play to your handicap" make a lot more sense.
• It "bakes in" the changes players should have made but rarely did when playing from different tees.
• Through NDB, it defines the holes on which you can take a triple (or which you can take a gross bogey if you're on the + side of scratch).

The calculation of your differential at the end is completely unaffected and does not involve par. Dean will spend a good amount of the time in this article talking about how par is "less precise" than the rating and slope, but he seems to miss the two points here:

• Par is an integer. If it helps him to think of it as 72.000000 or something, by all means, Dean…
• Par is used only to adjust another whole number: the strokes a player gets on the course. We don't give 10.4 strokes — a 10.4 index player might get 13, 10, 8, or whatever number of whole-number strokes.

 

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A par handicap results when par is part of the calculation that creates a Playing Handicap or Course Handicap.

The problem with this type of statement is that the "par handicap" could be "7" or "13" or "88" and except for affecting NDB, players competing against each other would have the same difference (except they'd still need to adjust for playing from different tees).

Let's say a 10.4 and a 14.7 are playing a 71.5/127 course. Par is 72.

(10.4 * 127/113) + 71.5 - 72 = 11.2 -> 11 strokes
(14.7 * 127/113) + 71.5 - 72 = 16.0 -> 16 strokes -> this player gets 5 strokes

Instead of 72, plug in 23 because it's your favorite number:

(10.4 * 127/113) + 71.5 - 23 = 60.2 -> 60 strokes
(14.7 * 127/113) + 71.5 - 23 = 65.0 -> 65 strokes -> this player gets 5 strokes

They still get the strokes they deserve (5), but we've lost the meaning as players now get 60 strokes off a 10 handicap.

Remove the course rating and… you're back at the same problem as we've had where players weren't doing the calculation properly, and we lose the first benefit of "playing to your handicap". An example of that, with a 12.3 index player playing on a 68.7/123 rated par 72 course.

Properly: (12.3 * 123/113) + 68.7 - 72 = 10.1 -> 10 strokes

Improperly: 12.3 * 123/113 = 13.4 -> 13 strokes

If the player plays a "net even par" round of golf, he'll shoot 82 and 85. Here's why this makes sense:

WHS: (82 - 68.7) * 113 / 123 = 12.2 differential
Prior: (85 - 68.7) * 113 / 123 = 14.97 -> 15.0 differential

The player "played to his handicap" with a net even par round in shooting the 82, which aligns with getting ten strokes, not 13.

This makes way more sense and is in fact an improvement over the prior system for two of the three reasons listed above:

• It more closely aligns the index and the score you have to shoot to "shoot your handicap"
• It bakes in players playing from different tees.

 

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As you know, par was not a factor in the American system of handicap calculation, nor need it have been. One's handicap index was adjusted not by par but by course rating to create a playing handicap, or what we continue to call a Course Handicap. A course's rating, not its par, is what's important.

Par is not a factor in determining the differential in the WHS system, only the playing handicap. The only way it affects the differential is that it can award a triple bogey on a few more holes (or a gross bogey max to a few + handicappers playing shorter tees) in determining NDB. You can completely ignore the WHS system of calculating your playing handicap and your differentials — the calculation of which does not use par - is going to be almost exactly the same (again, differing only when you tripled a hole on which you wouldn't have gotten NDB but now do because you didn't do the subtraction part of the WHS course/playing handicap calculation).

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Why was par added to the handicap calculation then? Because it's already part of handicap systems in some other countries.

Or maybe it was because of the other three reasons listed above. Which were the reasons given to me back in 2017 and 2018 when I talked with some of the people responsible for helping to create the WHS. If the ease of adoption by other countries and regions, then that's a fourth reason. But, I didn't really hear much about it prior to the WHS being instituted.

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Because points are used, this formula added a step beyond the American calculation (Handicap Index times Slope Rating divided by 113). In Stableford-based systems, a final step is added: add Course Rating minus par to make it easier for those players to compare their performance to par scores.

A similar step was also required when players played from different tees, yet this was frequently forgotten. Players used to playing the blue tees would move up to the whites and expect to keep their 13 strokes, and be dismayed and sometimes even angered and argumentative that they would only get 10.

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Then comes rounding off, which introduces other errors, not only in the round-off but often in "over-spreading" of the resulting handicaps.

This literally makes no sense. There's no more or less rounding than in previous versions. The output of "HI * Slope/113" typically produced a decimal number, the output of "HI * Slope/113 + CR - Par" also produces a decimal number, and the output of "Score * 113/Slope" (which is unchanged) also produces a decimal number. Each are rounded just as they were before.

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In short, an approximation is approximated again, making it less reliable mathematically.

No, Dean is way off base here. Even if you accept that "par is an approximation" (of course difficulty), it's not used as he suggests. A player playing a par-72 that's rated 75 will get more COURSE handicap strokes than a player playing a par-72 that's rated 67, but that makes sense. At the end of the round, their score is processed using the same old formula to get their differential as always.

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The adjustment for the difference in Course Rating when competing from different tees (previously called Section 3-5 in the handicap manual) has gone away - which is unfortunate because the difference in Course Rating is the only exact way to make score comparisons-- and now is supposedly "built-in" to the new par-based formula.

This is about where I start to wonder and worry about Dean's mental faculties at his nearly 80 years of age. It hasn't "gone away" - it's been built-in as he says, and I think it's fairly obvious that this is true.

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But what's really built in is a wider margin of error. What does the Course Rating minus Par adjustment really represent? It is the error of Par as a "descriptor" of playing difficulty.

No it is not. It is what I've said above, which is what the USGA and R&A have said it is.

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Course Rating is universally accepted as the most accurate measure of relative difficulty for the Scratch golfer and the Course Rating minus Par is the magnitude of the Par's error measured against that accurate value.

I agree that the course rating is the "most accurate measure of the relative difficulty for the scratch golfer" (I mean, it's almost exactly the defeinition), and slope determines the relative difficulty between two levels of player. So, which of these formulas incorporates BOTH the CR and the Slope in determining a player's course handicap:

a. (HI * Slope/113) + CR - Par
b. (HI * Slope/113)

Clearly A incorporates "the most accurate measure of the relative difficulty" (as well as the measure of the relative difficulty). Dean's favored formula did NOT include "the most accurate measure of the relative difficulty for the scratch golfer". A scratch golfer under Dean's preferred method could shoot an even par round of 72 and see a differential that ranged from +2.7 (75.4/140) to 5.5 (66.3/118) or something. Under the WHS, if they shoot net par, they're going to end up with about a 0.0 differential.

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So, the par handicap is the true handicap measured against the most accurate value corrected for the error inherent in the least accurate value — par.

No. Again, you could subtract any integer from the Course Rating (which again the WHS ADDS to the calculation in course/playing handicap that the older system did not) and get the same relative course handicaps for all players. Using par just helps it make the most sense to actual golfers. It's an integer… as are the scores we shoot and the pars of the holes we play.

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But USGA was intent on jumping right into the change on January 1 declaring that it would only impact American golfers by less than a stroke and it would be easier for golfers to equate their scores to par.

The addition of the "CR - Par" has almost no effect on a player's differential. Again, the only affect it would have is when NDB is applied, because there may be a few holes where they'd get a stroke that they do not. And even then, it requires the player to card a triple on that specific hole, and be among their 8 out of 20 counting scores, AND even then if it happens once a round in ALL of the eight rounds, it's about 1 stroke on their index (probably a bit less given that most slopes are > 113).

This has nothing to do with "jumping in" and everything to do with the foundational reasons for adding (CR - Par). Dean sees it as "adding par" when he would more accurately see it as adding the Course Rating!

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Using the best 8 of 20 scores (against the old 96% of 10 of 20) already tends to lower handicaps…

Small point of order: this was not shown to be accurate. The 96% applied to all 10 scores almost perfectly offset the dropping of two middle scores. Some players indexes went up a little. Some went down a little. The net change was almost exactly 0.

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What golfers will know is that, in most cases, their course handicap has been reduced if their normal tees have a Course Rating under par.

Yes, that's how math works. The change makes MORE sense, again, as a player shooting net par under the WHS has basically "shot their handicap". Shoot below net par and your handicap will likely go down. Shoot above it and it may go up a little (less chance of this than shooting under lowering it, though, of course).

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Players who always play from the same tees at their club will see another inconsistency. If, for example, the Course Rating is 70.5 and Par is 71, the calculation of Course Rating Minus Par (.5) means, based on the way the tables are created, that half the players will have a Course Handicap one lower than they had before the new system and half will not!

So? Half of the players who play a 72.5/72-par course will see their Course Handicap one higher than they had before the system and half will not!

Also and again, players who play a course rated 68.7 par-72 will all see their course handicaps drop several strokes. That's just math, and the boundaries of rounding. Dean chose a 0.5 marker, but the same math is true at any level, because the HI already has a decimal, and the Slope/113 multiplier also tends to produce decimals. So, someone who previously had a 10.5 to 10.9 index will still be an 11, while the 10.0s to 10.4s will go up to 11s. But on another course where the decimals work out to 0.3 and 0.2… the same math applies. And on a course where the decimals work out to 0.8… players half of the players will get an "extra" stroke and half will not.

This is just rounding. It's always been a part of the WHS. The point at which rounding occurs might move slightly (depending on the course and index in question) for half of the situations, but if you have a 10.0 and an 11.5… or a 10.5 and an 12.0… half of the time the higher handicapper will get the "extra" stroke, and half the time the lower handicapper will get the "extra" stroke.

This is just how rounding works.

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The United States isn't a predominantly Stableford playing country. We play a lot of match play, where handicaps have a huge impact.

Handicaps in match play are almost entirely unaffected. A 13 playing a 10 might now be a 10 playing a 7, but the difference is still the same size. You're subtracting out a constant (CR - Par) from both players. The (HI * Slope/113) remains the same.

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By adopting all of the new WHS elements, we have adopted a World system that is not as accurate as what we have enjoyed.

This makes no sense and Dean has absolutely failed to provide any basis for this "less accurate" while ignoring that the WHS ADDS the CR to the course handicap calculation.

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The new WHS alters a 40-year-old course-rating-based handicap system in favor of a "net par," which is, the USGA argues, easier for golfers to grasp.

It is easier. Shoot net par and you've "played to your handicap."

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Steve Edmondson, the current USGA Senior Handicap Director stated: "We can't get clubs to apply section 3-5 today because it is simply unintuitive." John Bodenhamer, added: "Golfers have indeed found it difficult to disconnect par from the equation."

Yes, and what they say is both accurate and makes sense. The WHS method bakes in the "playing from different tees" and makes it easier to know what it takes to "play to your handicap."

Those are my notes right up until "The Par Pitfall." Dean has yet to make a valid point in any of this blog post thus far.

When I have the time, and feel like procrastinating a bit more like today, I'll continue with my response to this blog post.

I respect what Dean did in creating the original handicap system and the course ratinga system. The course rating system is one of the most elegant solutions to a very complex problem that I have ever seen. Nothing done by the WHS changes that. The course rating system is relatively unchanged, and its application in the WHS is, again, MORE accurate by the inclusion of the Course Rating than the previous system, in addition to the other benefits.

Dean deserves (and has been given) much credit for that. But, if this is how he thinks these days, Dean can remain Pope Emeritus but the Cardinals need to elect a new Pope.

[Ty_Webb]

39 minutes ago, iacas said:

The addition of the "CR - Par" has almost no effect on a player's differential. Again, the only affect it would have is when NDB is applied, because there may be a few holes where they'd get a stroke that they do not. And even then, it requires the player to card a triple on that specific hole, and be among their 8 out of 20 counting scores, AND even then if it happens once a round in ALL of the eight rounds, it's about 1 stroke on their index (probably a bit less given that most slopes are > 113).

Almost no effect and arguably when it does have an effect it does a better job. 

An example is the best way I can think to say this. Say you have a course that has a 476 yard par 5 on it. Par is 72, course rating is 72.0. Slope is whatever you want it to be. Scratch player plays that hole and under NDB maximum score is a 7, which makes sense. Then let's say you take that hole and chop a yard off it, making it 475 yards and call it a par 4. That would have no impact on the course rating (unless there's a big fluke going on about the rating being 71.95001 or something). Now that scratch player gets 1 stroke. Assuming that the stroke index of the hole in question is 1 (which would make sense that it would be the hardest hole on the course given it was a par 5 three minutes ago), then that scratch player has a maximum score under NDB of 7, which once again seems reasonable. It was 7 when the hole was 1 yard longer, so it should be 7 now too. If you don't make that adjustment, then now the max score is 6, which would be a weird change to make. 

I know that in reality this will change by what the actual stroke indices are and the actual hole where that extra shot comes along will vary by handicap (between all 18 of them), but at its basest level, whether par is 71 or 72 shouldn't really impact what the maximum score should be. On average it should fall out that way, which it does now and didn't before. 

[iacas]

Let's continue on…

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The unreliability of par has not changed.

Cool. The thing is, nobody's claiming par is "reliable" and par's inclusion piggy-backs in the course rating, which is awfully close to par and, thus, brings par in to make it make sense. Once again, for those in the back… (CR - Par) just makes it really easy to know what kind of score you need to shoot to best, match, or play worse than your handicap index.

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The idea of replacing the misunderstood section 3-5 is good, if we could do it reliably which the new system doesn't. The problem is that where the pars of the two tees are different, the same correction must be applied to account for the par difference. Since players will be told the 3-5 correction is built-in there is a bigger danger that the Par difference will not be corrected as is now required. The usual result will be unfair to women competing against men, or senior men who compete from more forward tees.

Yes, when par is different, the players from the higher par tees get an extra stroke (72 vs. 71, the 72s get an extra stroke. That makes sense and is a small complication (more info at https://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/handicapping/roh/Content/rules/Committee%20Content/USGA/LG_R6d.htm).

However, most of the time, this adjustment will not be needed, as many courses play to the same par for the same genders from all sets of tees. And, the rare times it is needed, par (measured in whole numbers, integers) and strokes (also whole numbers/integers) map easily and the idea is easily grasped.

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'PROVIDING HANDICAP UPDATES DAILY. I worry about the ability of club Handicap Committees to now keep up with the daily rises and falls of their membership's handicaps.

Dean seems to be unaware of the fact that most every golfer carries something orders of magnitude more powerful than the highest end desktop computers available the last time he consulted with the USGA in their pockets. While it is quaint that his club puts printouts by the first tee… get with the times, Dean. Look up your handicap index and course handicap in the GHIN app and get on with it.

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--WEATHER CORRECTION. Allowing for unusual weather and course conditions in recording of scores now is done automatically. If done accurately, and of that I am not certain. What happens when the weather is great in the morning, but bad in the afternoon?

It's a better system than the one that didn't account — at all — for a difference in the playing conditions (via an algorithm, not a judgment).

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The problem is, these refinements will contribute to a less precise system because of the introduction of par, the lynchpin of the WHS.

Dean's assertions about the "less precise system because of par" continues to make absolutely zero sense.

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1. Variance from tee to tee. Gone will be the days where a Course Handicap changes slightly from all sets of tees at a course.

Right, it still changed tee to tee. Now it just changes differently… and in a way that more accurately reflects the score you need to shoot to play to your handicap. Previously, a 1.1 index would get 1 stroke on a 66.7/122 par-72 course. Now they give four strokes back to the course and must shoot 68 to play to their handicap. This makes way more sense.

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Where once a Course Handicap was a 12 from the back and middle tees, and an 11 from the front, look for larger variations. 'sometimes, very large'by 18 shots or more. Golfers moving to the longer tees will think that is a logical change. Golfers playing shorter tees won't be happy.

The 18-shot difference is a pretty extreme example. Maybe a long course that also offers a par-three set of tees could play that long, but… man, that's not going to be super common. Sensationalistic much, Dean? Also, once those unhappy (complete assumption) golfers realize a) what the change shows them (playing to net par = playing to your index) and b) realizes that their differential is going to be the same… I think they'll get over their initial questions.

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2. The spreading effect. The range in playing handicaps (Course Handicaps) between courses suddenly will become much wider, on the order of 18 shot differences between shorter courses and longer courses. This is a greater range than actual scores justify in some cases because of 'over-spreading' from the system change.

No.

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Based on a large sample size for courses in Southern California, I found that a man with a 14.1 Handicap Index currently has a range of Course Handicaps from 12 to 18 with an average course handicap of 15. The average Slope Rating is 121. However, under WHS due to Par Handicaps, his range varies wildly from -1 to 22 with an average course handicap of 11.6, effectively giving him more than three shots less in the process.

And yet… if he shoots the same scores, he'll get the same handicap index he has now. But he'll know on each course what score he needs to shoot to "play to his handicap." Sheesh, Dean. This stuff isn't that hard to figure out. Enough with the sensationalistic stuff.

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WHS produces an unacceptably large handicap variation for the same ability player.

I don't find it "unacceptable" at all. Then again, I'm not nearly 80 and seemingly incapable of doing basic math these days.

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The WHS adjustment has reversed the effects of applying Slope to the players Index, masking what Slope was designed to do-- to make handicaps portable used by the player in competition.

No. This literally makes no sense, as that part of the differential calculation and the course handicap calculation remains identical.

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3. The scratch golfer anomaly. Scratch golfers are no longer 0 handicaps everywhere.

Good!

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4. The forward tee issue. Senior golfers competing from more forward tees against golfers from the regular tees often will be receiving fewer strokes than is equitable.

No. Categorically wrong. They should have been adjusting their handicaps all along. Previously it was by subtracting the course ratings. Which… is still basically what's done, with the addition of the course rating being "baked in" to the course handicap calculation. Dean is wrong here, or doing some math heretofore unknown by the world.

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With clubs keeping the same par across all tees no seniors will want to Tee it Forward.

When par is the same, what determines the difference in handicaps? The course rating, which Dean loves! Sheesh!

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5. Par v. par disadvantage. Playing against a player who has a different par than yours becomes an entirely new training effort to explain that the difference in par now has to be added to the player's course handicap from the higher par tees.

You had to things when players were in situations like this before, too.

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6. Women v. men unfairness.

This is getting exhausting. He keeps using words like "less precise" and "unfair" but does not seem to understand what they mean. This is like the Princess Bride meme: "you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

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7. Weaker tournament score monitoring. Exceptional tournament score procedure is eliminated, replaced by 'caps' on handicaps.

The caps reduce upward movement. Committees have reign to reduce a player's handicap, and there's still an automatic Exceptional Score Reduction.

I'm going through these more quickly now because… well, it's silly how badly Dean misses the mark with this blog post.

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An exceptional score of even casual rounds now will kick-in called a 'Cap' system used overseas, with a soft cap limiting a handicap increase of more than 3 over the low handicap of the past 12 months and a hard cap that prevents a handicap increase or more than 5 within a year.

Dean is literally confusing the upward movement (with the soft and hard caps) here with the exceptional score reduction which is used when lowering handicaps due to an exceptionally good score.

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To the disappointment of myself and other handicap experts…

The creators of the WHS are handicap experts. They know more about the current state of handicaps/handicapping than the Pope Emeritus.

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8. Fewer rounds in the calculation. The change from 96% of the best 10 differentials of the last 20 to best 8 of the last 20 tends to lower the handicaps of higher handicappers.

It's been shown to have almost no effect across all handicaps. Yes, some 36s under the old system are now 35s under the new system. Yawn.

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9. Net Double Bogey replaces Equitable Stroke Control (ESC). The use of Net Double Bogey as the maximum hole score is better than the procedure that it replaces…

He should have stopped there. It's easier to apply and makes more sense.

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However, applying it manually is not complex (where players get shots varies from each set of tees as their par handicap changes) and will lead to players guessing or not applying it at all).

This makes no sense. It's "not complex" but players will have to guess? And, for men or women, the stroke index of each hole doesn't change because they play a different set of tees. They get a different number of strokes, but it's always been true that when you get 14 strokes you apply a stroke to stroke index holes 1-14, and when you get 11, to just holes with a SI of 1-11.

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Add to this the inaccuracy of the par allocation…

Objection, your honor. Assumes facts not in evidence. Dean's just out here continuing to make shit up about "the inaccuracy of par" and ignoring that with Par (an integer) came the Course Rating, which he agrees is precise and accurate.

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10. Less relevant stroke allocation.

No.

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The recommendation for the ranking of the stroke holes (known as Handicap Stroke Index) has changed. Match play no longer is factored in, which is odd as match play is a very popular format in America. It is replaced by ranking the holes by stroke play to make the WHS work better.

No, this is inaccurate. Also, as noted, you can randomly assign stroke indexes, and so long as all the low numbers or all the high numbers are not clumped together at the beginning or ends of the 18 holes, matches generally work out the same.

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11. Factoring weather in. A new feature considers weather and course conditions.

This is inaccurate. It is an algorithm that looks at scores. That's it. Also, this is better than a system like the prior one where no such thing existed at all.

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12. The rush to act. Before Slope was rolled-out in the USA there was significant testing with Northern California Golfers.

Wildly inaccurate and off-base. Did they do actual testing? No need. They have millions and millions of rounds and ran many, many, many simulations. That's testing. Dean seems to continue to be unaware of the fact that computers are more powerful now than they were in 2002. But, he's nearly 80, so we can understand if not going so far as to give him a pass on how much he gets wrong.

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It is my judgment that the USGA should have opted out of the Course Rating minus Par modification.

Cool. Noted.

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(By the way, many of the countries around the world, minus Australia and Continental Europe, are delaying implementation with a grace period until up to November 2020.)

For the most part that was because many countries haven't been able to rate enough of their courses.

:sigh:

[Ty_Webb]

Couple of things. In the UK they play a lot of stableford competitions. 2 points for a net par, 1 for a bogey, 3 for a birdie, 4 for an eagle, 0 for a double bogey or worse. Playing to your handicap typically means getting 36 points, being 18 x 2 points. If your course rating is a long way different from par, then playing to your handicap would mean getting 32 points or 40 points or some such. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that input from the R&A is the reason for the CR-Par adjustment, which brings it to 36 points is playing to your handicap. A round of net pars really should be playing to your handicap. Now it is. Yay.

I would think the people most likely to be upset about the CR-Par adjustment would be 6 or 7 indexes whose course is par 72, with a 74/140 rating. 6.5 x 140/113 + 74 - 72 = 10. So the "single figure" golfer who has probably defined himself that way for a long time is now a 10 and getting double digit strokes. Oof. I must admit I'm a 0.0 right now (sure makes the math easy) and if I play Bethpage Black from the blues, suddenly I'm a 7. That takes a little bit of getting used to. It also means I do have to pay attention to the stroke indices to be sure of whether I'm making the net double bogey adjustment properly. 

I do think it's much less likely that NDB is applied properly vs the old system where it was max double bogey or max 7 depending on handicap (I think anyway - I know it was max double bogey at my handicap level - I didn't much care about where it changed or what it changed to). NDB is clearly better, but it does mean people either have to adjust it themselves accurately (questionable) or input their hole by hole scores (also questionable). I do it, because I care about it (and don't tend to make too many scores worse than double and also rarely play courses where I'm giving strokes back to the course and would therefore have max bogey on some holes). I'm sure there are many who don't and will just guess or assume. Under the old system, if I was playing a scratch tournament (which is most of my golf), I didn't care what my course handicap or stroke allocations were. They didn't affect my posted scores at all. Now they do (although the MGA and LIGA post all scores at their events themselves directly - something I am very happy about). That is a complication under the new system - one I think is worth it given the benefits, but a complication all the same.