Playing and Expectations: Shorter Par-5s

[Shindig]

What follows is something I wrote when I was trying to gather my thoughts about playing par-5s, especially shorter ones.  These are my thoughts, although I’ve certainly listened to and read a lot of golf statistics conversation recently.  This is all human written (no AI assistance) and it is not my intent to repackage something I read or heard;  rather, I am making this post as part of trying to get my own thoughts together.  When I began writing this, I was about a 12 handicap, and am now at 10.3.  I also think this (the topic, not my handicap) would make a good conversation.

At one point, I thought I might try to write about this as a Numbers Game article for this site (maybe I will once I have my thoughts together).  As per good practice, I am going to cite where I got numbers from when I know, although I’ve been throwing things together in my head before I realized I should write something down (bad research practice, I know).   I am also aware that I am not the best statistician on this site, although I’m no slouch there either.

Ever since Erik announced the “no sixes” challenge years ago, it has been on my mind just about every time I play.  Yet, thus far, I have managed only one round without a six, although I have managed several with only one six.  While there’s an occasional six on a par-4 (or worse, on a par-3), many of my rounds with only one six tend to find it on a par-5.  ShotScope tells me that in 2025, my ballstriking statistics (strokes gained off the tee and on approach) were hanging around the 10-handicap baseline (tee shots: +1.08 vs 10 hcp, approaches +0.7), and that’s the baseline I was using for comparing my rounds.   As I write this post, the statistics for those categories for 2026 are even better, about a stroke per round worse than the 5-handicap baseline (-0.37 driving, -0.61 approaches), and the category of hole on which I lose the most strokes is par-5s under 500 yards.  This is backed up by the fact that the only distance range in which I am comparatively losing strokes on approach is 50-100 yards.  

I have also been thinking lately about reasonable expectations;  Erik had a guest on his podcast last year (The Spin Axis, episode 026), and that guest (Lou Stagner) is on a podcast (Hack it Out Golf) that I have been going through the back catalog of quite a bit since, particularly listening to episodes where they discuss various statistics.  I have not yet listened to their entire set of episodes yet, and I listened to a lot of what I have while out hiking, so I did not exactly take detailed notes.  A common type of statistic they talk about involves how many strokes it will take a 10 handicap player, on average, to hole out from a particular situation.

My goal in this post is to get a conversation going where we can figure out how someone with a low double-digit handicap (say, 10-12 range) can play their par-5s better;  while “never get another six” is not a reasonable expectation for me without improving my golf to the point that I’m no longer a double digit handicap (something I’d like to do, of course), I do think pushing my scoring average a lot closer to 5 on these holes is a reasonable thing to work on as part of my improvement plan.  I also think a lot of other people here would benefit from the conversation.

As I said, I feel I should be able to make a lot more fives than sixes on par-5s.  Maybe that isn’t a reasonable expectation.  Lou Stagner’s newsletter had an issue where he showed that a 10-handicap averages five strokes to hole out from the tee at 403 yards[1];  I remember at one point in 2025, I made a 4 on such a 420 yard par-4 and ShotScope told me that I gained a little more than one full stroke in the process (compared to the 10 handicap baseline), which struck me when reviewing after the round.  I still periodically make a bogey on a par-4 and find out that I gained a (small) fraction of a stroke in the process, and just yesterday, I made a par on a 418-yard par-4 and found I gained 0.93 strokes compared to a 5-handicap baseline on that hole.  Two holes later, I made par on a 543 yard par-5 and gained 0.65 compared to the 5-handicap baseline.  Each of those pars, compared to a 10-handicap baseline, is more than a full stroke gained. 

I am working on improving my ball striking, but maybe it’s unreasonable for me to think getting my average on par-5s close to par is going to happen while my handicap is still double digits (conversely, if I’m playing the par-5s better than I do now, that will help the handicap drop, and I’d love to see it under 10).  I think at 550 yards, the average strokes for a ten handicap to hole out is over 6;  there’s a course I play regularly that has two such holes (both are about 550 yards from the tees I play), and when I make a par on either or both, I’ve gained a stroke compared to the 10-handicap.  I even have a bogey on my record on one such hole where SG was positive relative to that baseline (by a very small amount, under a tenth of a stroke, but that isn’t nothing).  And the Stagner newsletter I cited in the previous paragraph shows that a scratch player will average over five for that distance.

For a 475 yard hole, a 10-index will average 5.45 strokes (Saturday morning stats, Mar 10 2023 -- "Hack it out Golf").   I believe a TST-member 10-index will average lower than that, in part because we’ll know better than to lay up “to our number” or similar nonsense;  we definitely know (LSW Chapter 27) to get the ball as close as we safely can on our second shot.  We also know not to shoot at pins when we’re more than 100 yards away (or 80 yards, if we’re still north of 10), and that we should prioritize GIR, even if it means worse proximity from the pin, no matter what our handicap is.

Another statistic that was brought up on another episode of that show (“Hack it Out Golf,” October 3 2025) is that a 5-handicap, with 250 yards left to go and in the fairway (such as for their second on a par-5) is more likely to take five or more shots to get down (25% of the time) than they are to hole out in three (15% of the time).   They also gave these numbers on their Sept 13 2024 episode, although I think the episode title on the feed says 200.

I wonder if that’s all there is to it for a double-digit handicap on a par-5:  get the longest tee shot in play that I can, hit the second shot as close as I can safely get it, prioritize GIR on my third shot (just as I should do on any approach shot), and be a decent enough putter to make that two-putt a realistic possibility. I have known this for years (LSW Chapter 27) and I feel this is what I’ve been doing.  Maybe some days, that’s going to work, and Col Smith can be happy that the plan came together.  I am wondering if there is more planning I should put in, especially for courses I play regularly. 

I wonder why the average is nearly half a stroke over par on what I think would be a short par-5 (the aforementioned 475 yard hole) for 10 handicap players.  Maybe it’s because the expected number of strokes includes players choosing to do things that hurt their chances of making par or better, such as laying up to a full wedge distance and/or targeting the pin with the third shot.  Maybe that’s why at 400 yards there’s an average of 5, too.  I don’t have access to the data that would tell me what the stroke average is for people who play a 400 yard hole with a driver followed by an approach shot with a club that is likely to produce at least a near-GIR.  I would guess 10 handicap players, using such a strategy on such holes, average under 5. 

Thank you for reading.  I tried to organize this as I was putting my thoughts together over the past several months, and I hope it came out coherent enough to spark some good conversation. 

[1] https://newsletter.loustagnergolf.com/p/you-average-five-strokes-from-how-far  
 

[Ty_Webb]

Good topic. Couple of things to add. First of all, if you look at the plot of strokes to hole out vs distance, you can see how the curve gets a lot steeper between 200 and 300 than it is between 100 and 200. That's because at some point you breach the point where you can't get there anymore. If you can reach from 120 and 170 (as most can) then the difference is just between how hard the shot is. From 220 to 270, there's a pretty good chance you can get on or close from 220 but not reach at all from 270 and need a whole other shot to get the ball on the green no matter how good of a shot you hit. It's not a whole glaring shot difference mind you because not many greens are hit from 220 either, but the difference is bigger. This is a PGA tour player chart, but something analogous likely happens for 10 handicaps:

There will also be something similar to that out at 450ish yards where reaching in two becomes unlikely. That's probably why you're seeing over 6 for score expectation for a 10 handicap on longer par 5s. 545 yards is a long way to go unscathed basically. Tour players eat the par 5s alive because they can cover that ground without getting into trouble. In a very simple fashion, the longer the hole the more chance there is to show how good (or bad) you are.

One last thing - avoiding 6s is a good goal, but it's not all that easy. Going 18 holes without a 6 is not something that I do all that frequently. There's always a long par 5 floating around or a difficult par 4 that something bad happens on. For example there, I played a course I hadn't played before in US Senior Open qualifying recently. No 6s for 13 holes, then on 14 (long par 4 into the breeze) I leaked my drive a little right and it plugged under the lip of a fairway bunker. Had to play backwards and then was facing 220 into the wind and I made 6. It really wasn't that farfetched. One slightly loose shot at the wrong moment and you're done. As a 10, it's still a good goal to have, but I certainly wouldn't lose sleep over it. Rounds with only one 6 are pretty good too.

[Shindig]

Thank you @Ty_Webb!  I hadn't thought about that it would increase when there's a need for the third shot, something that happens to me almost every time I play a par-5;  it's pretty rare (bordering on never, but not quite) that I'm on or even within 30 yards for my third shot.   But that makes a ton of sense:  to be on or near in regulation, I need to hit at least two good shots and one not-bad one, preferably three good shots.  Asking a professional to hit two good shots in short succession is nowhere near as tall an order. 

I'll continue to try for a second no-six round, but your post really did help me with the not beating myself up part, and I'll continue to be happy towards this when I have only one six (and no worse) in a round.

[saevel25]

Goal 1) Keep the ball between the ropes. The ropes being where you have a full swing at the ball to advance it as far towards the green as possible. Not in trees, bunkers, hazards, long grass, OB, etc... 

Goal 2) Advance the ball as far as possible towards the green with respect to your shot zone. Keep the ball in play, ideally in the fairway, but the rough is not terrible. Stay away from hazards, including bunkers.

Ideally, you will in play with a short iron, distance wedge shot, pitch shot, or on the green. If this is the case, then think of it as having a par 3 that is the distance left on the par 5. If you are hitting a full swing short iron, then that is going to be difficult to get par than bogey. PGA Tour is 3.0 from the rough from 100 yards. This might be where fairway matters the most.  PGA Tour rough is tougher than what we usually play. If you get can this close to 50/50 for par/bogey than you will most likely end up more pars than bogies on par 5's. You would probably be better than 50/50 if you end up closer to the hole. This is where the advice would be, aim at the center of the green with full swing shots into par 5's. 

[Shindig]

Thank you, @saevel25.  First two points, definitely, and those are things I can do.  PGA Tour average being 3.0 from 100 yards in the rough (or 160 in the fairway, per ESC) is a great reminder that a 5 is a really good score on a par-5 and the occasional six isn't anything to be upset about, as long as I played it intelligently.  

I'm playing in less than a week, and I checked the three par-5s against ShotScope's 5-handicap baseline.    My last par on two of them yielded a 0.23 stroke gain (each), while the last one had -0.07 on my last par (I wonder if ShotScope measures straight-line distance, because there's some slight bending going on).

Hmmm, that last one, especially with between the ropes.  I think I'll go through my past rounds later today and see where I'm losing strokes there -- I would guess it's on my second shot, since that one makes me nervous because of O.B. left and right on the second shot.  Yet, I think I can hit a hybrid from my typical tee shot landing area and have a distance wedge into the green.  

[saevel25]

Yea, developing a proper shot zone for that approach should would be helpful. If you are bringing OB into play more than you like, then it is either needs to be an accepted reward for the risk. If you hit 10 shots from that tee ball landing area. If like 1 ball goes OB, that could be outlier shots you need to discard. If more than that is creeping in, then it is probably not the correct shot.  Maybe it needs to be more nuanced. Maybe you hit more shots OB from the left side of the hole than right due to shot shape. If you hit it left to right, maybe being on the left side makes you aim further right, bringing in OB right. It could be an aiming issue. 

[Shindig]

7 hours ago, saevel25 said:

Yea, developing a proper shot zone for that approach should would be helpful. If you are bringing OB into play more than you like, then it is either needs to be an accepted reward for the risk. If you hit 10 shots from that tee ball landing area. If like 1 ball goes OB, that could be outlier shots you need to discard. If more than that is creeping in, then it is probably not the correct shot.  Maybe it needs to be more nuanced. Maybe you hit more shots OB from the left side of the hole than right due to shot shape. If you hit it left to right, maybe being on the left side makes you aim further right, bringing in OB right. It could be an aiming issue. 

You're right. 

Side note, and funny story, the only time I can remember hitting a shot O.B. on that hole for the second shot, it was a topped shot where I started near the O.B. marker.  I wonder if I'm not getting as good a shot as I could because I'm nervous about O.B., but I'm not hesitating to hit a 4W if I get a good lie.