Mark Broadie: Unexpected, Surprise Champions [Golf.com]

[nevets88]

According to Broadie, the least surprising of 2015 are:  Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson, since 1983: Tiger Woods, Jose Maria Olazabal, Greg Norman, Vijay Singh and Seve Ballesteros. Where's Mickelson?

 

Since 1983, just 6 percent of Tour winners (that's 90 out of 1,501) had a negative Strokes Gained average per round during the season of their win. You may think that any player can win in any given week, but trophies rarely go to the ranks of the "below average" (that is, Tour players with a negative Strokes Gained per round average for the season).

This year's most surprising winners through late summer (see below) are Padraig Harrington, Nick Taylor and Matt Every. Given Harrington's six PGA Tour wins, including three major titles, his 2015 Honda Classic victory might not surprise you. But then we look at his finishes leading up to that triumph: T75, cut, T73, cut, cut, cut, cut, T56.

http://www.golf.com/instruction/mark-broadie-unexpected-surprise-champions 

[Broke100Once]

I would've been surprised had Every won somewhere other than Bay Hill, but clearly he loves that course and it suits his game. 

Kind of surprised that Davis Love III didn't make the list of surprise winners, I don't think anyone saw his Greensboro win coming (despite his own past success in that tourney).