2010 Ryder Cup

[bogie]

EURO captain Colin Montgomerie at his Monday press conference said he "hasn't played around with the course at all." We'll see about that in a few days.

Course set-up

Fairway width: In 2002 @ Belfry the EUROS narrowed the fairways starting at the 290 yard mark to negate the U.S. long hitters. Will Montgomerie have this mark at just 24-yards wide this time, while having the 270 - 280 yard at say 40 yards wide?

Euros avg. driving distance (yards): 290+: McIlroy, Westwood, Fisher; 285-289: Harrington, Kaymer; 280-284: McDowell, Hanson, E. Molinari; 275-279: Poulter, Jimenez, Fr. Molinari; 270-274: Donald.

U.S. avg. driving distance: 290+: B.Watson, Woods, D. Johnson, Mickleson; 285-289: Mahan, Fowler, Cink, Overton; 280-284: Kuchar, Stricker; 275-279: Furyk; 270-274: Z. Johnson.

During the practice sections, especially the U.S. long hitters might work on their 3-woods off the tee and the resulting longer iron-approach shots in preparation for this tactic.

Rough ht: The primary cut is probably going to be 3+ in. Will Montgomerie have allowed for some semi-rough or will it be negligible?

Collars/aprons: From the pictures it looks like many green sites surrounds are short grass which brings chipping into play. Another thing for the U.S. team to work during the practice rounds is their short game: chipping, bump & runs, flop shots.

Putting surfaces: It seems likely Montgomerie will have the greens running on the slower side--stimp listed at 10 ft and more likely playing at 9. The U.S. players whom experience faster greens on the PGA tour at 11.5 or 12 will have to make the adjustment quickly, having to be conscious of pace on their putts.

Par 3s: The par 3 distances and hole locations will probably be set to favored yardages and ball flights of the EUROS. The U.S. team will have to try to scout the par 3s and take an educated guess where the pin positions are likely to be and work on their fades and draws into these holes.

Miscellaneous notes

* Historically the EUROS have had the decisive advantage in 4-ball. For instance during Seve Ballesteros' prime years (1983-1991) over 40 matches in 2 formats:
4-ball EU lead US: 24-12-4. Alternate shot EU trailed US: 16-19-5.

The Euro's substantial edge in 4-ball has consistently held throughout the 90s all the way up to 2006. It's why Captain Paul Azinger opened the morning session with alternate shot in 2008 at Valhalla and why Montgomerie has switched back to 4-ball morning sessions this time. Why have the Euros so completely dominated 4-ball?

When the U.S. is at home it would make sense to start Friday with alternate shot then 4-Ball and Saturday open with 4-ball then close alternate shot; and vice versa applies when the Euros are at home.

* Ryder Cup Rookie Highlights-Olazabal 1987: 3 points. Rafferty 1989: beat Calcavecchia in singles match. Love 1993: beat Rocca in singles match. Walton 1995: beat Haas in singles match. Mickleson 1995 3-0. Europe 1997: 5 rookies all chipped into building the big lead during the team sessions and where Euros hung on in singles to win. Garcia 1999: 3.5 pts. Donald 2004: 2.5 pts. 2008: 6 US rookies contribute to first US win in 9 years.

* Since 1983 to 2008, 7 out of 12 times the leader after Day 1 wins.
There have been 5 comeback wins after day 2: 3 by 1 point; 1 by 2 points: EU 1994 Oak Hill; 1 by 4 points US 1999 Brookline.

[Shorty]

Are you serious?

[JWL1957]

9 or 10 on the Stimp meter? Thats just about as fast as your local muni isnt it? Just curious.

[bogie]

On the European tour the stimp reading for most tournaments averages: 10, 10.2, and maxes at 10.5 ft. The speed is controlled to allow for high winds and helping the ball hold the greens.

Stimp on courses in the U.S. run from 7 to 9 on many U.S. golf courses private and municipal. Lower stimp means taller, healthier and easier to maintain grass.

Even though it's not officially listed, British Open stimp at links courses like St. Andrews, Muirfield and St. George is kept at 9 to 10 to allow for wind and slope of those courses greens.

So my guess is that Montgomerie will keep the stimp on the slow side at 10 or even 9.5 ft, not only because of the wind but it's what the EURO team is accustomed to and the U.S. side isn't.

A word about the rough the tallest rough ht for a European Tour event is about 4 inches. So I've increased my guess on the rough for this week to 3.5 or 4 inches.

Links about slope

http://golfclubatlas.com/feature-interview/bob-harrison

http://www.usga.org/course_care/arti...tion-Booklet/#

http://www.gcsaa.org/gcm/2001/mar01/03golfers.html

http://turf.lib.msu.edu/1980s/1983/830316.pdf

http://www.popeofslope.com/magazine/hannigan.html

[bogie]

"Dustin Johnson, as long as anyone at the Ryder Cup, only hit driver off the tee on the par 5s during his practice round Tuesday. As for the rough, he described it as so deep that anything more than a 6-iron away, he would not be able to get it on the green." (AP)

My guess is the fairway width maybe 35 to 40 yrds wide but the rough is 3.5 to 4 inches high with negligible first cut.

This affects B. Watson, Woods, D. Johnson and Mickleson for U.S.
For the EUROS this affects McIlroy, Westwood and R. Fisher.

Unless the long hitters are supremely confident and striking the ball arrow straight, Montgomerie has handcuffed these seven players and placed them on equal footing with the mid-length hitters.

This means 15 to 25 yards less distance off the tee for the long hitters and at least 2.5 club lengths more from the fairway in average conditions. With rain decreasing roll and when the wind kicks up, the course is going to play long. Approach shots will go from mid-irons to long-irons.

In sum, it means there's a good chance for lots of 3-hybrids and 4-irons being used this week.

[lonewolf]

Are you serious?

It may be a copy/paste but, What's NOT serious? Are YOU serious with your one-liner.?

[bogie]

Note: I forgot to cite the sources that I based the original post on which are:

Pgatour.com, Europeantour.com, Rydercyp.com and "Cracking the Code" by Azinger and Braund.

[bogie]

Course set up continued.

In Kentucky it was Valhalla's club superintendent Mark Wilson. In Wales it's Jim McKenzie--Celtic Manor's director of course management.

In Steve Eubanks piece for Rydercup.com, McKenzie confirmed my earlier guesstimates about how the course is set up:

"There’s no way we can have green speeds in Wales in October anywhere close to what it was at Valhalla in September (of 2008)."
[my guess the stimp is going to run at 9.5]

“It would favor someone of prodigious length but it must be straight. That would mean using two or three clubs less than your opponent, you would then have a big advantage.”

“Montgomerie set the golf course up pretty much as it has been for the last three Wales Opens.”
[except the intermediate cut has been eliminated for primary rough--my guess it started the week at 4 in.]

According to the venue info the course set-up in June was as follows:

Stimp: 10.5
Rough (3 cuts) semi: 1.1 in., intermediate 2.2 in. and primary rough 3.5 in.
Course generally quite flat, elevation change on hole 15 - 18.
Water hazards on 10 holes.

Whom the course favors?

Here are the stats for the last 3 winners at Celtic Manor:

2010 G. McDowell (-15)
Fairways hit 71.2% (11th); Driving Dis. 283 yrds (36th); GIR 83.3% (1); Putts/GIR 1.69 (10th); Sand Saves: 50%

2009 J. Huldhal
FH 55.8% (78th); Dis 273.9 (85th); GIR 70.8 (23rd); Putts/GIR 1.66 (8); Sand Svs: 57.1%

2008 S. Strange
FH 75% (35th); Dis 275.8 (68th); GIR 80.6 (11th); Putts/GIR 1.61 (1); Sand Svs. 100%

The basic differences are these stats are from a stroke play tournament, during a warm and dry week of play.

Still it seems that besides good putting (always a given) what the last 3 winners had in common is strong iron play, as none of them are bombers off the tee.

Additional results of EUROS at Celtic Manor

2010: 3rd Donald (-10); T4 E. Molinari (-9); 8th Jimenez (-7); T12 Kaymer (-4); R. Fisher (Cut)

2008: T4 F. Molinari (-13); T10 R. Fisher (-11); 21st Kaymer (-9); E. Molinari T31 (-7); Harrington (Cut)

Also while not exactly the same course, Poulter won here in 2002 and Jimenez in 2005.

As for possible pin positions, I'm sure one of the U.S. assistant captains well before this week watched Sky Sports footage of the last 3 Wales Open.

[bogie]

http://www.europeantour.com/European...032/index.html
Celtic Manor tournament home page, with virtual graphics tour of course.

http://www.europeantour.com/european...ard/index.html
Hole averages

[bogie]

“There are two ways of widening the gap between a good tee shot and a bad one... The other is to reward the good shot by making the second shot simpler in proportion to the excellence of the first. But the elimination of purely punitive hazards provides an opportunity for the player to retrieve his situation by an exceptional second shot."
--Bobby Jones From "Golf is my game."

It certainly makes the long hitters think. (It’s fashionable these days for architects to say... length should be it’s own reward.) Bull! If I hit it 3 degrees off line and Fred Couples hits it 3 degrees off line, his ball will end up farther off line than mine. Why put trouble in such an area? Because Couples shouldn’t be hitting any shot three degrees off line. He’s a professional. We should demand that he be more accurate.
--Rod Whitten (golf course architect) From Feb. 2000 feature at Golfclubatlas.com

[Shorty]

It may be a copy/paste but, What's NOT serious? Are YOU serious with your one-liner.?

The fact that you think that course setup will be modified because of driving distance "averages" which vary by a few metres.

The fact that Ryder Cup courses are always set up to favour home teams. The fact that you are talking about pin positions being a mystery to the U.S. players but are being set up to favour the shot shapes of Europeans, as if they aren't similar to te U.S. players'. The fact that although it is a brand new course which some of the European players may have played a few times you write as if the U.S. players are going to be facing a complete mystery. You quote the results of European players at the course when European events are being held there and obviously are not contested by American players. The fact that you speculate about Stimp numbers as if the U.S. players won't be able to compensate. The fact that you are reading a lot into the whole thing as if there's something suspicious going on and are speculating about course setups that will bamboozle no one and ultimately, certainly not hamstring the Americans.

[bogie]

These posts are just my take on the lead-up to the Ryder Cup grounded in statistics and Captain Azinger's take about 2008 in his book.

Nothing abnormal or nefarious is going on with course set-up, that's all part of the matches and is the home team's right.

However, how the course set-up and much of the European team members' familiarity with this course and its impact on the results this week remains to be seen.

In 1997, the American's never made the adjustments to Ballesteros' tactics and it was a competitive edge that allowed to EUROS to build a substantial lead in the team sessions.

I'm rooting for the U.S. team, so I hope they are able to successfully make the adjustments on the fly. That's all part of being a road team and nothing would be sweeter than to hear a silent EURO crowd on Sunday.

What's clear is the U.S. team hasn't won in Europe since 1993.

In 1997 at Valderrama, the American's almost made a miracle comeback in singles. In 2002 at the Belfry Captain Torrance's front-loading in singles worked successfully as Strange held his big guns toward the end. 2006 was a EURO whipping on the American team.

To me, it’s clearest those edges in 1997 that Ballesteros’ set-up was a significant factor in that win. How much of a factor it was in 2002, one would have to ask Torrance.

[Shorty]

Being an Aussie, I am basically neutral - just hoping for some good golf, but if you look at footage from previous Ryder Cups, the behaviour of some of the Americans is just so repulsive that you sort of want them to be beaten. I won't even start on the Barbie clone parade.
For good or bad, I think the the Ryder Cups show what the characters of some of these players are really like, and guys like Pavin, Weekly and Leonard have come up extremely short in the opinion of many. And I'm not saying that European players are perfect - far from it.
Pavin's wearing of a military cap in Kiawah in 1991 was in such poor taste that I can never look at him without squirming. He's a jerk.
And now I read that he's still on that theme 20 years later. Appalling.
I like most of the 2010 players, though, and really just hope to see some great matches.

[bogie]

Before the official announcement of the pairings, here are my guesses.

What Pavin will do. (Based on press reports about practice pairings)

4-ball
Woods/Stricker
Mickleson/Fowler
Furyk/Overton
D. Johnson/B. Watson

Alt. Shot
Z. Johnson/Mahan
Cink/Kuchar

(If it were up to me, LOL )

US Pairings 4-ball
Woods/Fowler:
Personality sketch: both aggressive.
Comment: Fowler seems to carry himself with a bit of a swagger and not the top to be a “bystander” waiting for Woods to do something. Woods has currently lost his intimidation factor, but solidly play by Fowler could infuse some enthusiasm into Woods.
Actual: My hypothetical pair has not practiced together this week.

Mickelson/D. Johnson:
Personality sketch: Mickleson’s aggressive, D. Johnson’s steady.
Comment: Of all the U.S. players, D. Johnson is most in form and could carry the bulk of the load if Mickleson struggles.
Actual: Mickleson and D. Johnson have practiced together a lot this week.

Furyk/B. Watson:
Personality sketch: Furyk influencer, Watson influencer
Comment: Watson is both an emotional and humorous sort who could rub off on others positively--or when things go badly get down on himself. Furyk was a positive influencer in 2008 with Kenny Perry and would be reprising that role here with Bubba.
Actual: My hypothetical pair hasn’t practiced together this week.

Z. Johnson/Mahan
Personality sketch: Z. Johnson’s steady, Mahan’s aggressive
Comment: When I started thinking about pairings, this was the most obvious one. Essentially Z. Johnson’s game is stylistically similar to Justin Leonard’s. Leonard and Mahan made an effective pair in 2008. I would go with them in the morning 4-ball.
But if Pavin does go with Furyk/Overton it’s understandable why Z. Johnson/Mahan would go out in the afternoon. The hope would be the feisty Overton catching 4-ball birdie fire and ride it.

Alt. Shot
Kuchar/Stricker
Personality sketch: Both steady.
Driving distance avg: Both apx: (280 – 284 yrds)
Comment: They supposedly two of two nicer, more laid back guys on tour who drive the ball roughly the same difference. Take a look at their most recent results, which coincidentally have also been quite similar:
Kuchar: NJ W (-12); MA T11 (-10); IL T3 (-6); GA T25 (+5)
Stricker: NJ T3 (-10); MA 9th (-13); IL T8 (-4); GA T25 (+5)
Actual: My hypothetical pair hasn’t practiced together this week.

Cink/Overton
Personality sketch: Cink’s steady, Overton’s aggressive.
Driving distance avg: Cink (apx 285-289 yrds); Overton (290+ yrds)
Comment: Cink is the calming influence that many recent U.S. captains have called upon from him plus the fact Cink rarely shoots himself completely out of a round. Overton’s game has been ice-cold coming into the Ryder Cup. This pairing is mostly personality driven, and hopefully these two could grind out a competitive match.

Actual: My hypothetical pair hasn’t practiced together this week. Cink’s personality however lends itself to him being paired with just about anybody else on the team so it’s not impossible for these two to be thrown together at some point.

It’s logical to play Overton in the morning, whose game seems to fit the 4-ball format better. It’s just the Europeans have jumped the U.S. early and often in this format in 2002 and 2006. It would be my preference to hopefully stabilize things in the morning and hopefully eke out 2 points before inserting Overton into the lineup in the afternoon.

[bogie]

http://www.rydercup.com/2010/usa/sco...h_schedule.cfm

7:45 AM -- Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson (USA) vs. Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer (EUR)

8:00 AM -- Stewart Cink and Matt Kuchar (USA) vs. Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell (EUR)

8:15 AM -- Steve Stricker and Tiger Woods (USA) vs. Ian Poulter and Ross Fisher (EUR)

8:30 AM -- Bubba Watson and Jeff Overton (USA) vs. Luke Donald and Padraig Harrington (EUR)

"Each Team Captain independently submits the order of play for his Team to the appointed tournament official. The lists from each Captain are matched, resulting in the "Pairings". Please note that the players in pairings can be modified by the Team Captains only if a player is ill or injured. Pairings are subject to change and should not be considered final until play begins for a particular match."

My comments on these pairings and match-ups will be posted later today.

[Stretch]

I'll take Europe for the 8:00 and 8:30 matches, USA for the 8:15 and the 7:45 is a toss up.

[billysandy]

EUROPE for the first 3 matches.

[bogie]

http://www.thegolfchannel.com/human-...?select2=14501

Source: The Golf Channel piece on pairings.