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By klineka ·
There's not 40yds of fairway at the blue line. There's like 19yds. I don't know if there's anyone on the planet who is hitting a 19yd wide fairway 74% of the time from like 300yds -
By p1n9183 ·
I run the numbers to get a more accurate estimation... Considerations: Players dispersion (95% of shots) Driver: 70 yards 3Wood: 60 yards 3Iron: 50 yards. 4Iron: 45 yards. Landing Area at blue line (left to right).. 20 yards of bunker and 40 yards of fairway. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 14 yards right of the greenside bunker. At Brown: 35 yards of fairway, 5 yards of bunker, 20 yards of fairway. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 10 yards left of the 2nd bunker. At green: 25 yards of fairway, 10 yards of bunker, 25 yards of fairway. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 3 yards left of the shorter bunker. At red: 40 yards of fairway and 20 yards of bunker. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 15 yards left of the big bunker on the right. I used SG approach from the PGA tour and normal distribution for dispersion. Results: Blue: 19% of your shots are going to be in the bunker. 74% on the fairway and 7% in the trees (left + right). Distance to pin 50 yards in average. Spected score from trees is +0.66, 0 from sand and -0.35 from fairway. References: X recovery shot (trees), s = sand, f = fairway. Average score= 3.78. Brown: Green: Red: In conclusion.. by the numbers.. the best strategy is to play Driver with an average of 3.78. Bonus.. let say you are really bad at long bunker shots so insted a 0 score average you putt it out side ways leaveing you a 3rd shot of 50 yards from the fairways.. the numbers changes as follows... Now been on the bunker is +0.65 shot loose instead of 0. 3.9 average is still almost the best option, only 3 wood with 3.87 is better so unless you are terrible at that distance you should hit Driver. We can play further with the numbers but it doesn't change the outcome that much. -
By GolfLug ·
Okay, I had these two assumptions wrong. That would be my premise for hitting driver. I promise I'm not high.. lol. Fair enough. -
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By klineka ·
Wider than most fairways, yes (thus why I don't hit 100% of my fairways), but most holes I play have 65+ yds between hazards (or areas where I can't easily advance my ball to nGIR) so the majority of the time when I hit driver I am able to find it and have a reasonable look at the green. That would not necessarily be the case on this hole, especially because a mishit driver brings those left trees into play. PGA Tour players average 2.82 strokes to hole out from 40yds in the bunker and 3.15 strokes to hole out from 60yds in the bunker. 2.82 strokes to hole out from the fairway is like 110yds and 3.15 strokes to hole out from the fairway is like 190yds. Now granted I would only have that 50yd bunker shot 1/3 of the time, but it's still a VERY difficult shot especially for amateurs. Haha trust me I love chasing birdies, but I'm averaging 2.78 birdies per round this year so that's not my issue, I need to make less bogies (5.2 per round) and doubles (0.42 per round)
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