How should I play this shot?

[RPMPIRE]

I like yellow. I tend to push shots and that gives me a little room for error.

[Slice of Life]

I'm hitting my 6 or 7 iron to your red line.

The black isn't an option...I'm not consistent enough to trust missing the water from that distance.

With the blue, I'm hitting a 9 iron, so I'm definitely trying to hit it close...but with that, if I push it, I'm wet. Same with the yellow.

Red gives me the biggest, safest landing area, and I'm comfortable hitting that distance.

[mdl]

[Mr Smell Good]

Having never played the course before I would consider yellow but probably go with the red.  I feel like with a landing area that size I can hit a 7-iron up there pretty safely.  Like many said, if I wasn't feeling confident in my abilities that day, I would play yellow.

[LuciusWooding]

This is a pretty tough hole. But part of what makes it tough is the risk; you can't remove the risk by laying up on this hole though. For me, I think the risk of water and the possible penalty isn't that bad compared to the risk of making a bad shot on the layup or pitch, or 3 putting. I would expect a look at par or better here and I don't think double bogey is likely even if I hit into the water. You also would have a slim shot at eagle if you play the green. Giving me 5 shots to work with and given my length, I'd still be able to make par if I missed one or maybe 2 of them. If I had to hit anything below a 3 wood to get there I'd probably do it. OB might catch my attention more than water though. Plus I couldn't see the water left of the green from the fairway so unless I knew it was there I'd just hit more to the left side of the green.

The hole is begging you to reach in 2 with that tee shot. It gives you the biggest fairway where you're hitting from here, and no obvious layup area. I also despise uneven lies and I'll hit a big club or go into playable rough to avoid them whenever I can. I don't like playing from layup areas on public courses most of the time because there are divots in those spots that are worse to be in than any kind of reasonable rough.

If the layup areas are all uneven or have lots of divots, and the flat spots make you aim directly at water on a narrow landing area, doesn't that make the rough the easiest hazard if the landing area is huge and the up and down is from closest? I also wouldn't want to hit a longer club into any of the other spots except blue; they aren't that big even though you'd be hitting a short club into them. Misalign or misclub, and you'll be taking a drink or hitting from a bad lie anyway.

Personally I can't see why I couldn't land a shot on the area between the cart path and the edge of the water that bounces and rolls under 20 feet. The green is somewhat narrow but all that rough isn't going to be so bad a spot that you can't get up on the green and 2 putt. That area looks bigger than any of the spots on the fairway and is also a way easier shot than anything from 100+ yards, which even the tour guys miss a fair amount.  There's even a backstop if you hit it too hard. I'm not thinking about the eagle here but if the easiest play can get me putting in 2 it takes the pressure off my short game.

I could play a 4 or 5 iron from that spot but I'd probably go with the 4 and try to aim the right edge of my "cone" at the right edge of the bottleneck at the right front of the green and hit enough club to carry 6 or 7 yards over that spot. Black would be close to where I'd want it to land, but I'd be drawing the shot most likely. A hook would land in the rough, leaving me a pitch to hit the green in regulation. More problematic than the shot is the fact that I don't carry a 4 yet because I'm still buying some of my set...

[iacas]

Black. Plenty of room to miss.

[Slice of Life]

Black. Plenty of room to miss.

That's funny. I'd be so much more likely to go for it on the one you posted, than this one. But I'm also afraid of water, and am more comfortable with 235 than 215.

Plenty of room for you and Cipher to miss. Me? Not so much. Haha.

[MS256]

Red if I don't feel like I am playing very well. Black if I feel like I am playing well.

[Jodastra]

I unfortunately, after shaking my head several times would go 3 hybrid and shoot Black

[iacas]

That's funny. I'd be so much more likely to go for it on the one you posted, than this one. But I'm also afraid of water, and am more comfortable with 235 than 215.

So let's say you get on or near the green. 50/50 chance of a birdie, 50/50 chance of a par. Let's leave eagles out of it to keep things simple. So that's a scoring average of 3.5 shots from 210 out.

Let's say you dunk it in the water, but they're laterals, so you're now near the green. You have a 50/50 shot of getting up and down (they're not particularly long shots, and there's little elevation change if I'm seeing this correctly). So going in the water gives you a scoring average of 4.5 from there.

Thus, if you're more than 50% likely to stay dry, you go for it. And since there's more room short, maybe you "go for it" but plan to be on the front of the green - you don't try to hit a shot that can go long, because it can also go long and left or long and right.

[flintcreek6412]

I would probably never play it the same day to day based upon several factors

What hole # is it?  Is it the 3rd hole where I haven't determine which golfer showed up or is 15 where I know how I'm hitting it that day?

What is the wind?  15mph head, tail, cross wind?  Dead calm?

If a later hole what is my score?  If I'm going to score well I'd do red or yellow depending on wind and my striking.  If I'm looking at 10+ round and it's not going to be in the top 10 of my last 20 for HC I'll go for it every time.  Got nothing to lose basically.

Am I playing for a skin or just for fun?

What's the pin placement?  center, front, back, back right?

Every single one of those above factors plays into my decision.

But the fact is that 210 is basically a long par 3 so let it rip 70% of the time unless something above is so glaring that I change my mind.

[Slice of Life]

So let's say you get on or near the green. 50/50 chance of a birdie, 50/50 chance of a par. Let's leave eagles out of it to keep things simple. So that's a scoring average of 3.5 shots from 210 out.

Let's say you dunk it in the water, but they're laterals, so you're now near the green. You have a 50/50 shot of getting up and down (they're not particularly long shots, and there's little elevation change if I'm seeing this correctly). So going in the water gives you a scoring average of 4.5 from there.

Thus, if you're more than 50% likely to stay dry, you go for it. And since there's more room short, maybe you "go for it" but plan to be on the front of the green - you don't try to hit a shot that can go long, because it can also go long and left or long and right.

Wouldn't you have a scoring average of 5.5 if you dunked it?

[iacas]

Wouldn't you have a scoring average of 5.5 if you dunked it?

Read it again. :)

[LuciusWooding]

Read it again. :)

To clarify, he said it's a scoring average from 210 out, not the entire hole.

[Slice of Life]

To clarify, he said it's a scoring average from 210 out, not the entire hole.

Ok. Makes sense now. I've never seen someone talk about a scoring average without talking about the actual hole score.

[iacas]

Ok. Makes sense now. I've never seen someone talk about a scoring average without talking about the actual hole score.

The hole par is irrelevant. You find yourself at that position. Doesn't matter if it's the tee of a par three, or after your drive (or your second, or your third, or your fourth, etc.) on a par four OR five. You're there, and you need to make the best score.

[Slice of Life]

The hole par is irrelevant. You find yourself at that position. Doesn't matter if it's the tee of a par three, or after your drive (or your second, or your third, or your fourth, etc.) on a par four OR five. You're there, and you need to make the best score.

Oh, it makes sense. Just at a quick glance reading I read it as scoring on the hole. Either way, I can talk about how I'd lay up, and how it's the smart play, but in real life...I'm dumb and going for it. Hello water! :)

[MS256]

Oh, it makes sense. Just at a quick glance reading I read it as scoring on the hole. Either way, I can talk about how I'd lay up, and how it's the smart play, but in real life...I'm dumb and going for it. Hello water! :)

That kind of shot pins me between the two things I hate the most.

1. Laying up on something that's reachable.

2. Hitting the ball in the water.

If I can hit the ball again I'm stubborn enough to like my chances of getting up and down from almost anywhere (except water).