This Short Par 4 - Lay Up or Drive It?

[JonMA1]

1 hour ago, 9wood said:

When I put together good shots that allow me to make birdie, I don't call that dumb luck. 

Hey @9wood... Do you think you could keep up that 30% ratio for another 10 rounds? If so, how about a gentleman's wager? No money - just bragging rights.

I assume you play 100% by the rules. Whatever you tell me you shot, I'll trust. Would you be willing to keep track of your next 10 rounds and let us know how you did? It would be an interesting experiment anyway.

[9wood]

1 hour ago, bm85 said:

You seem a little proud for making birdie on a 250 yard par 4.

A person who is not proud of making a birdie on a hole, no matter what the length should have his vitals checked to see if there is any signs of life in him

47 minutes ago, JonMA1 said:

Hey @9wood... Do you think you could keep up that 30% ratio for another 10 rounds? If so, how about a gentleman's wager? No money - just bragging rights.

Are you referring only to this one hole, or entire rounds?

[Abu3baid]

4 minutes ago, 9wood said:

A person who is not proud of making a birdie on a hole, no matter what the length should have his vitals checked to see if there is any signs of life in him

Are you referring only to this one hole, or entire rounds?

I'm going to assume he means this hole. Basically as the sample size increases one would expect that you would trend along the expected birdie percentage of a high handicapper.  

IMO that's a reasonable expectation and it isn't a knock on you in anyway.  I haven't seen a birdie in like 2 or 3 months LOL!

[iacas]

6 hours ago, 9wood said:

They sure make a big deal out it when a pro does it at the Masters. I guess it only matters when you become elite enough to play the Masters, but not important enough when you have a 19 HC. I would think you should make a bigger deal out of it when a high HC'er does it because you don't expect it and that makes it special, especially to the person who does it. When the pros do it, you expect it and it's not such a big deal. 

You're missing the point… Nobody's attacking you, they're attacking the idea that laying up and pitching on is the best strategy because you have birdied it "30%" (3 of 9 or 10) times and because you say it's an "easy birdie" implying that this rate is likely to continue or stay fairly high. In reality it's quite likely to drop off quite a bit.

At the Masters you only have 10 or 12 opportunities to do something. It has nothing to do with pros and 19 handicappers. It's a small sample size regardless. You can't base your GamePlan on a small sample size - you can attribute lack of success or success in a tournament to, say, how poorly or how well you played the par fives that week (for example): if you're -14 on 16 par fives, you've done well for yourself. (And that player, likely, wouldn't continue at that rate if they kept playing them. In fact, that's often why they point it out - because it's remarkable. Just as your 3/10 is remarkable. It's also unlikely to continue.)

1 hour ago, bm85 said:

You seem a little proud for making birdie on a 250 yard par 4.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that. Call it a par three and many would be delighted to get a 3. Even a scratch golfer won't often make a 3 there.

[JonMA1]

Yes, just this one hole @9wood.

It's not a big deal. I just thought it would be fun.

13 minutes ago, Abu3baid said:

I haven't seen a birdie in like 2 or 3 months LOL!

Same with me. Birdies are very rare. Too many planets have to align, mostly the one that allows me to sink a 5' putt.

[9wood]

1 minute ago, JonMA1 said:

Yes, just this one hole @9wood.

I will post my honest results of this hole for the next 10 times I play it. I haven't been able to play it this year as yet, and having only been able to play 18 holes on a different course only once this year so far because of the weather I'm a bit rusty and I don't as yet know what the early conditions of this course is I'll will have to see how my first outing for the year on this course goes, when I hopefully play it later this coming week for the first time since last October. 

[b101]

Out of interest, what are you usually like when hitting to a green 175 yards - 200 yards away on different holes across the course?

I can accept that you might be pretty good close to the green, it's the tee shot being as accurate as regularly and not scuffed/topped/sliced that surprises me. For what it's worth, I'm not implying in any way that you're lying, but do you think that this particular hole is an anomaly for you, or is 'good hybrid' followed by 'good pitch' and make the putt relatively normal? For a bogey golfer - which I was for ages - it's almost always the long game that keeps us there, hence my interest.

Edited April 10, 2016 by b101

[JonMA1]

If you can birdie this hole twice in the next 10, or even keep your total strokes at around 40-42, I'd say you're doing pretty well with it. Good luck @9wood.

19 hours ago, p1n9183 said:

Hi all! my first post here. I`m a strategy fanatic. Handicap 4. Next month i`ll be 2 :) 

I made the analisis of both scenarios. 

Going for it forces me to hit mi driver (270 yards). Obviously i want to reduce the % of hitting it into the water so i need to aim rigth, but how much ? well i know the dispersion of my driver so i have to aim to the rigth of the green. My worst left miss will no rich the water. my worst miss to the rigth will be on the short grass of the other hole. Short miss will be safe almost all the time. Long maybe will reach the tree but near the green.. it would be no problem to hit the green. Same thing if i miss slight rigth to the threes. (See Strategy pic)

Lay it up force me to hit my 5 iron 190 yards to the middle of the farway, leaving 60 yards to the pin (My strong suit). My 5 iron dispersion will leave all my balls in the fairway. From 60 yards my shot dispersion leaves water out of ecuation leaving me a putt inside 30 feet for birdie. (See Strategy2 pic)

So what should i do ??? Well i think it deppends. Maybe the rigth choise is to feel the moment. Im confident with my driver that day ? If I hitting my driver all over the place maybe Strategy2 is better. If not maybe going for it is better. But not always, because most of the time my 2nd shoot is going to be a chip/pitch.. im doing ok with them that day ?? 

Ok, to sum up. let`s say that is not my day i will lay up, easy par and chance por birdie. If not i`ll go 4 it.

Bye! 

 

 

Great post and welcome to the site.

[9wood]

1 hour ago, b101 said:

Out of interest, what are you usually like when hitting to a green 175 yards - 200 yards away on different holes across the course?

I can accept that you might be pretty good close to the green, it's the tee shot being as accurate as regularly and not scuffed/topped/sliced that surprises me. For what it's worth, I'm not implying in any way that you're lying, but do you think that this particular hole is an anomaly for you, or is 'good hybrid' followed by 'good pitch' and make the putt relatively normal? For a bogey golfer - which I was for ages - it's almost always the long game that keeps us there, hence my interest.

The last 6 months of the season last year my tee shots were mostly straight and accurate. However I was sort of like Henrick Stenson and only teed off with a 3 wood. Depending on the winds and condition of the course, my tee shots would have a total distance of 190 - 230 yds. That's a 210 yd average. This year I added a driver to my bag and have only had a chance to use it this year for two rounds of nine holes. I have noticed with the driver that I hit a fade shot and I really haven't guaged my distance with the driver yet mainly because the two times I played it was cold and windy plus the course was very soggy. I also added a 3-4 adjustable hybrid to my bag since last year. I have used the hybrid twice so far and it seems to work really well for me so far. So well that I might use on some of my drives. I have added my old beat up 9 wood to my bag which works well on par 3 holes in the 140 yd range. The loft this 9 wood provides on that sort of par 3 hole gives me a better chance to get my ball to hold whenever I hit the greens.