Hello from North Jersey

Please forgive the sweaty shirt.  Just got off the treadmill and decided to do my Evolvr drill.  

I'd agree that 4w seems like the right play here. I'm not a course designer or anything but that hole looks like it could be so much more fun if everyone played from those front 2 tee boxes that are right outside your shot cone and they cut down most of the trees down that left side of the fairway. That would give risk reward to long hitters who want to try and push it up to that left fairway, allow more players to reach that second fairway, and still allowing it to be perfectly playable for someone who only hits driver like 150yds off the tee.   Yeah it looks like 4iron aimed at that inside edge of the right bunker is the play there, especially if you don't expect a 20mph tailwind again. If it is down wind again, 5iron would be just fine too, it'd still get you inside 150yds for your approach.  Keep in mind tee marker locations too, you measured that one from the back so if those tee markers are moved all the way towards the front of that box then 5 iron is probably best just to be sure that right bunker is never in play. 

Day 1: worked on my drill for my arms.

Hit my tee shot just into the penalty area and barely found it. Swung hard just in case I hit it. It was slightly downhill with a heavy tailwind. I don't actually hit my 9i 170 yards.

Right. The difference between being 120 out and 70 out for me (this is the important part) is negligible and not worth putting other risks into play off the tee.   Ok the argument against driver is that my shot cone is comically large. It puts every possible outcome into play. You can't see the green from the tee so there's a good chance I'd have to wait for it to clear which would slow down play. That's the third tee right in the middle of the firing range there. I really don't want to wait just to hit a terrible shot and I especially don't want to injure somebody. Yea I have no problem playing out of the rough short of the bunker if I'm just going to lay up short of the bunker, but I absolutely need to avoid flaring it right into the penalty area if I'm going to be laying up in the first place. As a general strategy I understand where you're coming from. But since we're specifically talking about me (this is a shot I'm going to have to hit on Saturday), I think the cost is fairly marginal. I hit the ball 8' closer on average from 50-100 than I do from 100-150 from the fairway and rough and the green success % difference is 4%. Bunker might as well be a penalty drop. Based on the data,  Here's my SG:A data compared to a 10: I honestly don't know how to use SG for decision making. That's why I was mostly looking at proximity to hole and green success rate for comparison. I mostly use SG as a way to track my progress. All good. Like I said, I appreciate the discussion. It makes me think. If I didn't want to see alternative/opposing viewpoints to my own I just wouldn't post anything. You should post it! In your own swing thread, of course. It's been a fun exercise.