US Open Reality Golf - Will the amateur break 100?

[JaY_B]

It would surprise me if one of them didn't break 100.

One factor that will determine the scores will be the quality of the players home course, if the players come from mickey mouse courses then it is quite possible they will not break 100, if they come from courses that are hard then there is a good chance that 100 will be broken.

[iacas]

I'll say what I said on the podcast: I'm putting the over/under number at 1.5. I think Tony Romo will break 100. He has a good chance to break 90, I believe.

I think out of the other three - Justin Timberlake, Matt Lauer, and the contestant that's chosen - there's a good chance one of them will break 100 (and maybe it'll be JT). Obviously the best chance is the guy with the 4.7 index.

[sacm3bill]

If the final winner is a low handicapper, then it proves nothing if he breaks 100. Tiger's comment was that a 10 handicapper could not break 100

True, and what would really be interesting is if none of them do break 100... All four have sub-10 handicaps, and are playing at what most appear to be saying is an easier course than Oakmont - if they can't break 100 at Torrey, it would tend to vindicate Tiger's comments about a 10 handicapper at Oakmont.

[Franco!]

I've seen the finalist.
I believe most of them are ~5-6 Handicaps.
If they can't get 9 bogeys and 9 doubles, there's a problem with their game.

[mgolfer]

I think the guy that plays off of 1.5 and Justin Timberlake will break 100. The 1.5 would be because of his handicap, and I'm guessing he is very good, and I read that Justin plays a lot, every day I think, and he wishes to turn professional if possible if I am correct? I think that he has the determination and I think he also said that he hits the ball a long way for his build so that could help him.

Also, I would love it if they spiced it up a bit and put a 15 handicapper to make it a bit of fun, then we could see how good the lower cappers really are, and make it more realistic in terms of us hacks.

[JaY_B]

say the Par is 72, that is 28 shots till 100, i cant see a tour pro being 28 shots better a round than single figure handicap golfers.

[mgolfer]

say the Par is 72, that is 28 shots till 100, i cant see a tour pro being 28 shots better a round than single figure handicap golfers.

Yeah exactly, I think it will be interesting to watch though (if its even on in the UK, do you know if it is?) because we will see the difference between tour players games and a single figure handicaps games.

[golf_junkie27]

say the Par is 72, that is 28 shots till 100, i cant see a tour pro being 28 shots better a round than single figure handicap golfers.

Good point. However, how many US Opens have we seen where the winning score is a couple of strokes over Par? I believe Ogilvy won with a +5. Cabrera shot the same, last year, inclusive, he was the only golfer to have two sub 70 rounds. These guys are normally a +5 or +6, handicap. At the very least, that's between a 15-17 stroke difference between pro and these amateurs. Take into consideration that the pros are actually playing well in those conditions. With that in mind, I can't see these amateurs breaking 100.

[Franco!]

Good point. However, how many US Opens have we seen where the winning score is a couple of strokes over Par? I believe Ogilvy won with a +5. Cabrera shot the same, last year, inclusive, he was the only golfer to have two sub 70 rounds. These guys are normally a +5 or +6, handicap. At the very least, that's between a 15-17 stroke difference between pro and these amateurs. Take into consideration that the pros are actually playing well in those conditions.

Think about it. If you say the pros are +6 handicaps, these amateurs are roughly 11 strokes behind. Cabrera shot +5. That means the amateur will be shooting around +16.

I feel that they will break 100 and Tiger will be proved wrong.

[DaveLeeNC]

It would surprise me if one of them didn't break 100.

IMHO, the issue may well be the conditions of the courses they play rather than their quality. I play Pinehurst No. 2 somewhat regularly. The course when set up for member/resort play bears little resemblance (relative to the problems presented to the player) to when it is set up by the USGA for the US Open.

dave

[golf_junkie27]

Think about it. If you say the pros are +6 handicaps, these amateurs are roughly 11 strokes behind. Cabrera shot +5. That means the amateur will be shooting around +16.

The pros are a between a +5 and +6 on Tour courses. These courses are, on average, 7000 yards. The index is 74 or so and rating of 145. I doubt, considerably, that any of the Golf Digest foursome are playing courses like this.

Torrey Pines, normally, plays to a 76 and 151. It's going to be tougher than that for the US Open. Simply put, the elite pros, when playing well, have been 10 to 12 shots worse than their average score, the last few US Opens. Factor in a stimpmeter of 13. Putting on glass. A couple of holes have been set up so that it's 250 yards just to get to the fairway. You'll now have an amateur, assuming he's keeping a legit handicap, playing a U.S. Open course, with Television cameras, no gimmes, no mulligans, no foot wedges, etc. To my understanding, there are no practice rounds, either. Breaking 100? Highly unlikely.

[iacas]

You'll now have an amateur, assuming he's keeping a legit handicap, playing a U.S. Open course, with Television cameras, no gimmes, no mulligans, no foot wedges, etc. To my understanding, there are no practice rounds, either. Breaking 100? Highly unlikely.

To be fair: if he has a "legit handicap" then he's not doing foot wedges, gimmes, mulligans, etc.

And I don't think the TV cameras will matter all that much. Who cares? Worse will be playing with the three celeb schlubs. Especially if they're a Packers fan or something. I still have the over/under number at 1.5. Romo will break 100 and I think Timberlake might as well.