Tiger's Odds to Win another Tiger Slam

[iacas]

Sorry Cody, had to do it!

Now that Tiger Woods has won his twelfth major (yes, I'm jumping the gun just a bit), and two consecutively, and four of the last eight, what odds do you give him to complete another Tiger Slam by holding all four majors at once? How about for winning the "real" slam (all four in 2007)?

He'll need to win at Augusta. I give him 2:1 odds there next year.

He'll need to win at Oakmont, a course he's never played. That didn't hurt him at Hoylake, and given the way he's disassembled the past two courses (Hoylake and Medinah), and given the way that course is going to be set up, and given the fact that he's back to owning his swing, I give him 4:1 odds to win there.

That leads me to my final answer: I give Tiger Woods 8:1 odds to win another Tiger Slam.

I give him 30:1 odds to win the one-year grand slam next year. Augusta and Oakmont set up for him, Carnoustie will, and Southern Hills probably will too. But gosh, that's a year away, and if you gave me ten bucks at 30:1 odds... I'm not sure I'd be willing to risk $300.

[satch_ip]

What is your address? I will send you the $10 for that bet.

[iacas]

What is your address? I will send you the $10 for that bet.

Just answer the questions, please... Clearly you think 30:1 are good odds. So give us some answers.

[satch_ip]

Not being a big gambler, i don't quite understand the art of oddsmaking, but I think the probability of Tiger winning another slam is better than 30%. A true Grand Slam would be six in a row and that probability has to be less than 20%.

OBTW, lighten up Francis...

[iacas]

Not being a big gambler, i don't quite understand the art of oddsmaking, but I think the probability of Tiger winning another slam is better than 30%. A true Grand Slam would be six in a row and that probability has to be less than 20%.

Who's Francis?

Oddsmaking, as I understand it: 3:1 odds are roughly 33% odds. Or maybe it's 25%... but for every one dollar you bet, you win three. 5:2 odds mean you win $5 for every $2 you bet... or, if you take the "other" side, you win $2 for ever $5 you bet. So if Tiger is 3:1 to win a Tiger Slam, and you bet "no," you only win $1 for every $3 you bet. If you bet "yes" you win $3 for every $1. Anyway, if people want to answer in percentages, that's fine by me. It's a whole lot easier to understand. Oddsmaking is there to even a bet for a bookie, and thus is based more on how people "feel" and more importantly, how they bet. That's why odds shift through the days leading up to something - as bets come in on one side or another, the bookies shift the odds around to entice people to bet more for one side or another (so that the bookies come out even). They make their money by being just a few percentage points off, so that they don't pay out quite what they take in. Plus I think they get a small percentage of winnings... But gambling is not my strong suit. I really have no idea. If you want to answer in percentages, please do. They're a lot easier to understand.

[sole wolf]

a poll would be good here.

It is tough to say, if they were all in the same season I think it would be a landslide in his favor. But putting it over two years is tough as we all know to keep the swing the same.

I do recognize if you have money you play year round anyway.

answer: If I had a bankroll I think it would be 50:1

[iacas]

a poll would be good here.

Too many options. 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%..... 100%. Even going by fives gets me 21 answers.

It is tough to say, if they were all in the same season I think it would be a landslide in his favor. But putting it over two years is tough as we all know to keep the swing the same.

He finished no worse than 4th in the majors last year, winning two. His swing seems even more "cemented" now. That's the only counter-argument I have to that... it is tough, but if anyone can keep a swing going, it's TW.

He said in his post-round press conference he's playing as well as he did in 1999-2000, and he has seven more years of experience and he's able to get more out of his game now than he was then. Scary.

[flap]

The question is does he carry it over the winter?He does look like nobody will beat him.

[Puttin4Bird]

Well I don't know much about all that 3:1 and 5:2 stuff but I will say this, Tiger's odds have to be better than 50-50 right now. Maybe more like 75% because you know he'll be the heavy favorite at the Masters, he's already won 4 and nearly a 5th if he would have putted even fair in 06. Oakmont at the US Open, why not? You know he'll get there before the event and scope things out. It's like he have a revelation at Hoylake with hitting less drivers off the tee for more fairways and greens, that will surely carry over to the US Open.

With Tiger really not having a "winter" off he'll stay sharp and be ready to roll in April at Augusta. I think what Hank Haney said sums it up pretty well, "and Tiger's only going to get better" that is a scary thought.

[Baynative]

I am a former competitive bycyclist and I find it uncanny how Tiger seems to play a tournament like a bike race.

He almost appears to sit in the pack marking the other riders ready to go is one of them makes a move, but saving himsself otherwise.

On occassion, if the conditions present themselves he will take a flier and go off by himself. If an unlikely contender jumps out early he seems unflapped and willing to bide his time and ride his own race to the finish - letting the other guy run out of steam.