2010-2011 NFL Week 1 Capping Thread

[double_j]

Didn't see one, thought I'd start it. Delete if repost.

Though I don't bet pro sports that often (or for that much money), it's usually fun to make some picks each week and see how your record compares to the professional analysts as the season progresses.

My picks this week: No science this early in the year, all gut - my picks tend to get better after a couple weeks of play since there's more data to work with.

Vikings at Saints - I wouldn't usually make a lean on this one but will since it's the season opener. I think this one will be closer than many will give it credit for, but do believe the Saints will cover the 6 their giving as the home team. Adrian Peterson will give the Vikings some ball control and Favre some room to work. Holes in the Saints backfield will give the aged QB one or two chances to get one deep but Brees will trade punch for punch. That said, Brett's demons will come back to haunt him and he'll throw one key pick that will put the Saints up by an extra field goal or more Saints -6

Indy at Houston - Peyton usually doesn't cover early in the season and Houston is getting 2 at home. This is their time to start the year off right. Houston +2

Packers at Eagles - Combine an inexperienced Philly team that shouldn't finish better than one or two places out of last with the Eagle's reputation for continually letting down their fans and I'll call this my strongest pick of the week Packers -3

Cincinatti at New England - 85 and TO will play well together but neither will have standout years - the real implosion won't come until next season after one of the duo's reality shows have been canceled and the other starts to get more attention. Multiple threats through the air will be too much for New England to cover every play and the Bengals will get at least two due to their star power. New England is always solid in the opener and just might squeak out a win here, but they won't cover the points they're giving. Cincinatti +4.5

[double_j]

Was able to lock in the Saints at -5.5 but didn't cover despite the win. A couple of missed field goal opportunities would've made me a contender.

0-1 for the year, at least my read on the game was partially right!

[JWL1957]

I dont know who does the over and under for the betting parlors, but they need a new day job. I saw this Cincy beating coming. These new backs and safeties for New England are very fast. I dont think New england has the same problem in those positions like they did last year. I am more afraid of a good running team against New england than a mediocre Cincy passing threat. Cincy is way overrated in my opinion.

[jamo]

If the Jets lose tomorrow on MNF this will be the best possible week for me in football. The Pats won and the Colts lost. I just need Joe Flacco to knock Rex Ryan off his pedestal.

[newtogolf]

If the Jets lose tomorrow on MNF this will be the best possible week for me in football. The Pats won and the Colts lost. I just need Joe Flacco to knock Rex Ryan off his pedestal.

Tough game for the Jets, there will be alot of emotion with guys charged up from comments made on Hard Knocks, new stadium, and Rex playing his old team. I don't think Flacco is as likely to win this one for the Ravens as Sanchez is to lose it for the Jets. He hasn't looked good so far, and us Jets fans are worried about the sophmore slump with him. Will be interesting to see if Rex goes with Brunnel is Sanchez struggles badly. I know Ryan doesn't want to lose this game and Brunnel has looked better than Sanchez in preseason.

[Jay-Bird]

What about Monday Night Football?

[double_j]

Oh well, 2-2. I call that a vig weekend. I'm OK with that until there's enough data to form trends, etc.

Saints (loss) - locked in at 5.5, lost to the book at 5. Even though I liked the under, it was much lower scoring than anticipated. One field goal would have made me a winner.

New England (loss) - wow, Cinci had nothing going and the Pats looked sharp. If the Bengals keep up like this, the Batman and Robin implosion will happen much sooner than anticipated.

Houston (win) - good game, as expected. Peyton looked OK but too many dropped passes early

Packers (win) - Rodgers looked to be in form, Vick might have won himself a starting role.

Regarding over/unders - statistics show o/u probabilities to be at about 50% (regardless of how close the actual line is to the actual result). Books don't care if they're off by 50 points, they only care that they get half the money on each side of the line!

No plays tonight since both are fairly tight games but my leans would have to be towards the favorites. Jets are always scary early (especially if they've come up with new defensive schemes), and the Chargers look to be one of the teams to beat for the year. At lines of -2 and -4.5, respectively, I don't see the lines being an issue (i.e., they'll either cover or lose outright).

[double_j]

After thinking about it, I'm going to flip flop on the Baltimore/Jets game. I like the Ravens to win outright.

The main factor driving my change of heart is the 'reality show jinx'. I haven't looked at any real data, but my gut is that any team (or player) who has a reality show follow them in the offseason generally fizzles the next year.

For a more realistic sounding excuse I think that while Sanchez will have a solid game, Flacco will be able to figure out a couple of ways to occasionally beat the Jet's aggressive blitzing for shorter gains. I'll call it the Ravens 20-16.

[Jay-Bird]

I think the Chargers will cover easily. But I don't put money on it.

[double_j]

Ooph. Another 1-1 evening. Keeps me at .500. Bankroll is down 10% after week 1.

Based on the score, it doesn't sound like I should be upset about not being able to catch most of the first game last night. And the Chargers? If they don't go on a undefeated run to prove their worth after this, they might as well call it a season.

Week 2 picks on Thursday. I love football season!

[newtogolf]

Based on the score, it doesn't sound like I should be upset about not being able to catch most of the first game last night.

Unless you like watching the referees throw flags, and punting, you didn't miss much. Jets offense was anemic, I can't believe they didn't pull Sanchez to try to get the win. Alot of bad pass interference calls too against Jets defense. I'd say they got a taste of what's it like to play with a bullseye on their backs.