How should I play this shot?

[cipher]

So let's say you get on or near the green. 50/50 chance of a birdie, 50/50 chance of a par. Let's leave eagles out of it to keep things simple. So that's a scoring average of 3.5 shots from 210 out.

Let's say you dunk it in the water, but they're laterals, so you're now near the green. You have a 50/50 shot of getting up and down (they're not particularly long shots, and there's little elevation change if I'm seeing this correctly). So going in the water gives you a scoring average of 4.5 from there.

Thus, if you're more than 50% likely to stay dry, you go for it. And since there's more room short, maybe you "go for it" but plan to be on the front of the green - you don't try to hit a shot that can go long, because it can also go long and left or long and right.

Exactly!  I said it this morning but I am starting to feel that the "black" option is the right play.  After two years of playing this hole it finally dawned on me.  This hole screams for you to lay up or try to play safe, and when you do it can ruin your day.  I have played the "yellow" option so many times over the last two years.  I make a ton of pars, but my scoring average is higher than five.  Yeah it is a 100 yard shot but probably the hardest 100 shot on the course.  If you hit it well your usually will two putt for par, if not you are dropping and hitting 5 onto the green with a must make U&D; for bogey.  I used to play the red as well, but I just don't like it very much either.  Yes you will make a birdie more often than you will with the yellow option but, as a righty if I push it like I did this morning slightly it becomes very risky.  All of a sudden you are dropping way back and have a very long fourth shot.  The safest shot in some ways, I am now starting to understand is to go for it.  There is virtually no chance I will risk leaving it short of the first part of the hazard and I will probably be safe a decent percentage of the time.  The rest of the time, I have a drop, a short pitch and two putts for the worst case scenario of bogey or  and U&D; for par.   This hole makes you fear the water more than you should.

[Slice of Life]

That kind of shot pins me between the two things I hate the most.

1. Laying up on something that's reachable.

2. Hitting the ball in the water.

If I can hit the ball again I'm stubborn enough to like my chances of getting up and down from almost anywhere (except water).

Problem for me is, unless I hit the shot with my putter or one of my non-PW wedges, the water is still in play. Haha.

[mvmac]

Thus, if you're more than 50% likely to stay dry, you go for it. And since there's more room short, maybe you "go for it" but plan to be on the front of the green - you don't try to hit a shot that can go long, because it can also go long and left or long and right.

Isn't that the red option?

[iacas]

Isn't that the red option?

The red option leaves you 40 yards from the green, not on the front third of the green.

[BuckeyeNut]

The person who made this thread is a 3.8 index for gods sake.  If the question is..........What do I do from 210yds in the middle of the fairway?  Then go for it for gods sake....i's NOT THAT FAR!!!  I suspect if he is having trouble on this hole, it's not from 210 in the middle of the fairway.  IMO.... how to play the hole best after being out of position from the tee would be a better question.

Going for the green from 210yds is a no brainer............hit the 5-iron or 4-rescue on.  What is the big deal? there is plenty of room to miss the green and chip-putt for birdie. If the 2nd shot was 250-260yds in the rough or fairway, my answer will change.

[Golfingdad]

Oh, it makes sense. Just at a quick glance reading I read it as scoring on the hole. Either way, I can talk about how I'd lay up, and how it's the smart play, but in real life...I'm dumb and going for it. Hello water! :)

Nah ... Erik likes to do stuff like that on purpose to keep us on our toes. ;)  He's got a teachers mind.  Give them the tools to figure out the answers ... don't give them the answers. ;)