Who Will End 2015 As World No. 1?

[Chilli Dipper]

Since Jordan Spieth settled any remaining arguments over who is the PGA Tour's player of the year this weekend in Atlanta, I'm going to pose a new question. Spieth, Jason Day, and Rory McIlroy have swapped the top spot in the world rankings in the three weeks, so it's fair game to guess which one will finish the year as the world's number one player. Some things to consider:

• Spieth has reclaimed the number one ranking for now, but the PGA Tour season is now over; meanwhile, the European Tour's Race to Dubai is building up to a climax, so McIlroy will have more opportunities to pick up world ranking points than the other two in upcoming weeks.
• Day and Spieth will be playing in the Presidents Cup in Korea next month, and they may play an event on the Japan or Asian tours upon the matches' conclusion. (The Japan Open is the week after the Presidents Cup; the Hong Kong Open co-sanctioned by the European Tour takes place the week after that; and the CIMB Classic co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour follows the next week.)
• Day will also likely return to Australia to compete as the new national sports hero, but remember: the last two Australian Opens have been won by McIlroy and Spieth, respectively.

With that in mind, who do you think will finish 2015 on top?

[mvmac]

I'll go with Spieth.....Without looking into the actual numbers of how things might change or what tournaments are left

[Silent]

Spieth and McIlroy both confirmed to play at the WGC - HSBC Champions also. A lot of points there.

Quote:

Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and defending champion Bubba Watson are the first players to book their place at this year’s WGC-HSBC Champions at the Sheshan International Golf Club from November 5-8.

Spieth, winner of the first two Majors of the year, the Masters and the US Open, is looking to lift his first World Golf Championship trophy while McIlroy, whose season was stalled by an ankle injury, will be looking to finish the season on a high.

http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2015/tournamentid=2015086/news/newsid=270107.html#0RjRitsZd6uJjPsW.97

[garush34]

McIlroy for me. More events to play on European Tour and they are big events at that. The others will still play here and there but I doubt that they will be enough to keep them there.

We have seen it in the last few weeks that its changed when none of them have played so if one I playing when the others are not then it will change quickly.

[David in FL]

My guess would be Spieth, but honestly, the calculation is so convoluted that I don't even pretend to understand it.

[Gunther]

Pretty close right now, less than a tenth of a point separates 1 and 2, with McIlroy a full point behind. Couple OWGR tidbits: 1st time in years 6 US players in the top 10 and Tiger down to #299.

[newtogolf]

My guess would be Spieth, but honestly, the calculation is so convoluted that I don't even pretend to understand it.

Agree, there are so many variables that affect ranking beyond their placement in a tournament it's almost impossible to know who will finish #1 unless one of them wins the WGC-HSBC

[k-troop]

I would guess (without actually looking at it) McIlroy is in position to start having his "big wins" from 2014 starting to be devalued. At least more than the other two players. So he can drop points without doing anything as he OWGR formula systematically discounts the weight of his 2014 wins.

[ccotenj]

I would guess (without actually looking at it) McIlroy is in position to start having his "big wins" from 2014 starting to be devalued. At least more than the other two players. So he can drop points without doing anything as he OWGR formula systematically discounts the weight of his 2014 wins.

a whole boatload of day's points have "full value" right now, and even though those points will eventually go into rot mode, right now (and for several weeks) he's not losing nearly the percentage of his point total that the other two are... so if none of them played until the end of the year, i'd hazard a guess that day would naturally float to the top, simply because he'd hang on to more of his points (as he should)... also, jordan is well above the maximum divisor, while jason is still below the minimum... so just going on those things (and the above), it would seem like it would end up jason, jordan, rory on 12/31/15... again, assuming they don't play between now and then (which is highly unlikely)... is there really an "end of the year" anymore? the end of the calendar year coincides with exactly nothing in golf... heck, bubba or rickie could conceivably overtake all of them by the end of the year...

[newtogolf]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ccotenj


a whole boatload of day's points have "full value" right now, and even though those points will eventually go into rot mode, right now (and for several weeks) he's not losing nearly the percentage of his point total that the other two are... so if none of them played until the end of the year, i'd hazard a guess that day would naturally float to the top, simply because he'd hang on to more of his points (as he should)...

also, jordan is well above the maximum divisor, while jason is still below the minimum... so just going on those things (and the above), it would seem like it would end up jason, jordan, rory on 12/31/15... again, assuming they don't play between now and then (which is highly unlikely)...

is there really an "end of the year" anymore? the end of the calendar year coincides with exactly nothing in golf... heck, bubba or rickie could conceivably overtake all of them by the end of the year...

Day has some older scores from 2013 that are still factoring into his score.  In terms of the number of scores each have that still apply over 80% of point value, Jason has 16 and Spieth has 20.

Spieth Form Table

Quote:

FORM TABLE

Year	Events Played	1 st	2 nd	3 rd	4 th -10 th	MC	Year End Rank
2015	24	5	4	1	5	4
2014	30	2	2	1	6	3	9
2013	27	1	3	-	7	5	22
2012	6	-	-	-	-	2	809
2011	1	-	-	-	-	-	1081
2010	2	-	-	-	-	1	937

Day Form Table

Quote:

FORM TABLE

Year	Events Played	1 st	2 nd	3 rd	4 th -10 th	MC	Year End Rank
2015	20	5	-	1	5	2
2014	16	1	2	-	4	1	8
2013	24	1	1	2	6	-	11
2012	20	-	1	-	4	4	37
2011	24	-	2	1	9	3	8
2010	24	1	1	-	3	5	38
2009	18	-	1	-	1	3	140
2008	28	-	-	-	2	15	224
2007	19	1	1	1	4	4	175
2006	8	-	-	-	-	3	641
2005	4	-	-	-	-	2	684
2004	2	-	-	-	-	-	844