OWGR top 20 strokes gained

[nevets88]

Day is ranked 3 in putting and Spieth up there too, but for the most part, the long game is where SG is higher, see Watson 2.4, Stenson 2.1, Scott 2.7, Matsuyama 1.9.

 

[RandallT]

Cool info. Some random thoughts:

1. Interesting to see that it's only a 1-2 stroke difference per round typically, on average. Such a tight dispersion of players in the PGA, frankly. It takes such a small separation across lots of holes to climb up.

2. Jason Day contrasts interestingly (if not unsurprisingly) with Bubba. Bubba gains over 2 strokes on the field with his full swing per round. Jason Day only 0.5 per round (I thought he'd gain more).  But for short game, Jason Day gains 1.5 per round, and Bubba just 0.2.

3. Occurs to me that what separates these top 20 players in the world from the professional "field" is one thing.  But what separates all of these pros as a whole from some other group  (take your pick: 20-handicap players, scratch players, whatever) could be an entirely different thing. To separate yourself across different skill levels seems to be a different question than how to separate yourself within your current skill level. 

4. Eyeballing it: only Day separated himself in putting by 1.0. Nobody did it with short game by 1 (Fowler closest with 0.7). A couple guys beat 1.0 in driving (Bubba/Dustin), with a couple more close to 1.0.  But a bunch of guys separated by more than 1.0 in approach play (Watson, Stenson, Scott, Matsuyama, Garcia, Schwartzel) with a bunch close.  

Therefore, approach play seems to be an area where there is wider variability perhaps, and more opportunity for separation? Then driving next?

 

 

 

[iacas]

2 hours ago, RandallT said:

Therefore, approach play seems to be an area where there is wider variability perhaps, and more opportunity for separation? Then driving next?

I forget his exact numbers, but they're often, what, 25% driving, 40% approach shots, 20% short game, and 15% putting? That which separates one sufficiently large enough class of golfers from any other class?

[Deryck Griffith]

Stats don't lie.  You can even take if further.  As of yesterday (04-03-2016) , of the Top 10 in strokes gained putting, only 2 are in the OWGR Top 20 (Day and Mickelson; Danny Willett doesn't count).

The remaining 8 are as follows:

Steve Stricker (1)
Jaime Donaldson (2)
Adam Hadwin (4)
Kelly Kraft (5)
Patton Kizzire (7)
Brain Harman (8)
Johnson Wagner (9)
Russell Henley (10)

Of the Top 20 in strokes gained putting, only 4 are in the top 20 of the OWGR.  Yes, only 4 (Danny Willett excluded again).  Here's how it looks:

The 4 that are in the Top 20 of the OWGR:

Jason Day (3)
Phil Mickelson (6)
Jordan Speith (17)
Dustin Johnson (19)

The rest who aren't in the OWGR Top 20

Steve Stricker (1)
Jaime Donaldson (2)
Adam Hadwin (4)
Kelly Kraft (5)
Patton Kizzire (7)
Brain Harman (8)
Johnson Wagner (9)
Russell Henley (10)
Brendon Todd (11)
Andrew Landry (12)
Aaron Baddeley (13)
Brice Garnett (14)
Derek Fathauer (15)
Jonas Blixt (16)
Andrew Loupe (18)
Stuart Appleby (20)

When will the masses start to realize that talking about the importance of putting to the levels we do is just one big bowl of hyperbole.  I would also suggest that a lot of the players in the Top 20 in strokes gained putting are there because they scramble more and more than likely make long puts for pars WHICH balloon them up in the strokes gained stats.  While conversely, the good ball strikers are putting for birdies, miss the birdie putt, tap in for par and well, a 1 or 2 foot par putt when calculating strokes gained doesn't jump you up in the stats.  Neither does a birdie putt that you "HIT" to 4 or 5 feet.  That 4-5 foot birdie putt again doesn't jump you up in strokes gained; it's the strokes gained on the "shot itself" that should be focused on.

 

[natureboy]

Re. Spieth's drop in approach play. I've seen some commentators mention that where he's been #1 or top 5 in proximity from the rough in past years, he's down to middle of the pack so far this year. I pulled some of his tee numbers to see if there any stuff related to his full swing with driver might jump out as a possible influence.

One thing I see is a big swing to a left rough tendency. At his best tee-to-green performance last year he was hitting the ball higher and with a bit more spin, He also had his tightest (on hit fwys) and most balanced left/right rough year in 2015 too.

Maybe with the new draw tendency and lower running ball flight (likely interrelated) he's leaving himself with too many extra tough 2nd shots or running through doglegs? It's also early in the year though, and comparing partial season with full season stats may create out some course-related differences in the numbers.

Edited April 4, 2016 by natureboy

[saevel25]

14 hours ago, natureboy said:

One thing I see is a big swing to a left rough tendency. At his best tee-to-green performance last year he was hitting the ball higher and with a bit more spin, He also had his tightest (on hit fwys) and most balanced left/right rough year in 2015 too.

He's really really consistent in his carry distance. His launch angle is really consistent. Spin rate is probably from the change int he Titliest driver. Smash factor is good. Fairway % is actually better this year. Distance form the center of the fairway is a stupid stat because it's not the target line all the time. 

He is missing it on the left side more than the right. Maybe that is something he hasn't noticed yet. In terms of strokes gained, he's hitting it further on total distance and he's hitting more fairways. He should be getting slightly more strokes gained off the tee. 7 feet of difference in ball height isn't significant. 

I would say it's more his irons and his wedge play that is hurting him. His proximity to the hole is substantially off. 

Proximity to the hole: +4 ft
Rough Proximity to the hole: +7 ft
Fairway Proximity: +4 ft

His birdie conversion rate is actually better than last year. His GIR% is lower than last year. He's just not giving himself chances for birdies. His game is just not sharp right now. 

[natureboy]

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

Distance form the center of the fairway is a stupid stat because it's not the target line all the time. 

True that center fairway is not always the target line, but I would think the factors that make it not so (fairway cant, doglegs, hazard lines) should roughly balance out over many holes on different courses with the long term shot pattern roughly centered on the middle of the fairway to maximize fairway hits. It can help form a picture. I don't think it's a fluke that his best performances in that stat were last year and 2013.

Quote

He is missing it on the left side more than the right. Maybe that is something he hasn't noticed yet. In terms of strokes gained, he's hitting it further on total distance and he's hitting more fairways. He should be getting slightly more strokes gained off the tee. 7 feet of difference in ball height isn't significant. 

Hitting both left and lower says slightly closed club face to me relative to last year (maybe intentional). His SG driving rank is 15 this year and he was top 15 in all SG categories last year so driving SG is either the same or worse. The extra distance is being offset by poorer positioning for his approach. The approach play is definitely well down with a ranking in the 70's.

The ball height difference isn't huge but he also had a later distance to apex in 2015 implying a bit more balloon from the higher average spin and a steeper landing angle which could affect whether a fairway miss ends up in a worse spot than where it landed. Maybe he's trying to take a page from Bubba (great at using curve into fairway slopes to increase his runout) and he ends up with a lot of tricklers into the left side rough (distance from edge of fwy is lowest of all his years).

Quote

I would say it's more his irons and his wedge play that is hurting him. His proximity to the hole is substantially off. 

Proximity to the hole: +4 ft
Rough Proximity to the hole: +7 ft
Fairway Proximity: +4 ft

Obviously the SG in the approach play is off per the OP chart. I would expect it's particularly bad from the rough. I wondered if his driver numbers might indicate something in his full swing that could be related. I see slightly lower average flight with a tendency to miss left. Maybe that slightly lower average is indicating some infrequent, but rather big misses low and left?

Edited April 5, 2016 by natureboy

[saevel25]

 

24 minutes ago, natureboy said:

Hitting both left and lower says slightly closed club face to me relative to last year (maybe intentional). His SG driving rank is 15 this year and he was top 15 in all SG categories last year so driving SG is either the same or worse. The extra distance is being offset by poorer positioning for his approach. The approach play is definitely well down with a ranking in the 70's.

If he was significantly shutting the face down then his launch angle would be significantly lower than just 0.2 degrees. Look at 2014. Nearly identical spin rates and launch angle. Way lower ball flight than in 2015. Yet he missed more shots right then left. Clearly your assertion that he's closing the club face is wrong by just looking at 2014 numbers.  

How is it poor positioning if he's hitting more FIR? There isn't a significant strokes gained or loss just by being on the left hand side of the fairway versus the right. Fairway is fairway. If he's averaging longer off the tee and hitting more fairways his strokes gained will go up outside of jacking a ball OB or into a hazard. 

34 minutes ago, natureboy said:

The ball height difference isn't huge but he also had a later distance to apex in 2015 implying a bit more balloon from the higher average spin and a steeper landing angle which could affect whether a fairway miss ends up in a worse spot than where it landed. 

Not significantly. You are talking 4 yards. The margin of error isn't even that big. Stop nit picking statistically identical numbers. 

I plugged his numbers into flight scope.

2015: 293.8 carry, 123.3 height, 7.6 seconds hang time
2016: 292.6 carry, 118.9 height, 7.4 seconds hang time

You are talking about 2.7% more hang time. That is insignificant. Under ideal projections he's getting 1.2 less yards carry, and 4.4 feet less height. 

If I showed you two shots on the range with these numbers you wouldn't be able to tell the difference. 

42 minutes ago, natureboy said:

Obviously the SG in the approach play is off per the OP chart. I would expect it's particularly bad from the rough. I wondered if his driver numbers might indicate something in his full swing that could be related. I see slightly lower average flight with a tendency to miss left. Maybe that slightly lower average is indicating some infrequent, but rather big misses low and left?

Again the numbers are not significantly off enough to prove that tendency. Also, the 2014 doesn't follow your assertion. 

The issue is his iron play from the rough and the fairway. He's proximity to the hole is significantly worse, upwards of 10-15% worse than last year from the fairway alone.

[natureboy]

31 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

If he was significantly shutting the face down then his launch angle would be significantly lower than just 0.2 degrees.

Not if he's also hitting up (+ AoA) more to offset a more closed clubface. I'm not making any conclusions it's just interesting to try to assess. His left rough swing could be related to different target lines.

31 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

How is it poor positioning if he's hitting more FIR? There isn't a significant strokes gained or loss just by being on the left hand side of the fairway versus the right. Fairway is fairway. If he's averaging longer off the tee and hitting more fairways his strokes gained will go up outside of jacking a ball OB or into a hazard.

That's not necessarily true. Broadie's expected strokes to hole out baseline model is built on both distance to the pin before and after a shot as well as where that ball lands. The system he uses assigns expected strokes to complete the hole from actual positions on the course. He is looking at more than just fairway / rough / sand / recovery.

Jordan may have gained .01 or nothing if you round his 2015 SG driving to the same decimal place. Mathematically any fractional gains from his extra distance are being offset by something, and the only other thing Broadie assesses in SG is position. While most fairway hits are likely about the same, hitting the outside of a dogleg versus the inside with the same drive distance could be a half a club in distance difference to the pin. Broadie's system would account for such differences. That said, I would expect it's larger misses left that would appear to be offsetting his fractional distance and (very small) fairway gains.

31 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Not significantly. You are talking 4 yards. The margin of error isn't even that big. Stop nit picking statistically identical numbers.

The driving stats are averages indicating shifts in the center of a distribution. The larger average distance from center of fairway could be indicative of shifted target lines, a shifted dispersion pattern and possibly a wider dispersion from his full swing (more variance - flatter / wider normal curve). Dispersion variance does matter for the fractional gains of the full SG system.

I am not saying that his driving is the reason for his poorer approaches, I am wondering if it may indicate a tendency in his full swing that may also have crept into his iron play where it was more damaging. They could also be completely unrelated. I am wondering - not concluding.

[saevel25]

5 minutes ago, natureboy said:

Not if he's also hitting up (+ AoA) more to offset a more closed clubface. I'm not making any conclusions it's just interesting to try to assess. His left rough swing could be related to different target lines.

Since his launch angle and spin rates are nearly the same then there is no proof showing he's hitting up more. Actually, his 2016 numbers are counter to what you should see. If he was hitting up more his launch angle should be higher and his spin rate should be lower. Yet his launch angle is negligibly lower. That doesn't match with hitting up more on the ball. 

At a driving fitting I changed my launch angle by 3-4 degrees just by hitting up more. 

7 minutes ago, natureboy said:

That's not necessarily true. Broadie's expected strokes to hole out baseline model is built on both distance to the pin before and after a shot as well as where that ball lands. The system he uses assigns expected strokes to complete the hole from actual positions on the course. He is looking at more than just fairway / rough / sand / recovery.

I am still betting it's not significant enough to make that substantial difference in proximity to the hole.  You saw Jason Day during his win stick the ball to tap in range from the right side rough when the pin was tucked back right. To these guys angle to the pin isn't that significant on most golf holes.  

9 minutes ago, natureboy said:

I am not saying that his driving is the reason for his poorer approaches, I am wondering if it may indicate a tendency in his full swing that may also have crept into his iron play where it was more damaging. They could also be completely unrelated. I am wondering - not concluding.

 Again I don't think you can draw a conclusion from his driving numbers. You didn't explain why his 2014 numbers which had a lower peak height, lower launch angle, lower spin rate and he had a more right tendency than left tendency. 

I will say his left tendency is at a higher rate than it has been in the past. He's 10% more likely to end up left of center, given that doesn't equate left of target line than he was in 2015. Yet, he's only increased left rough tendency by 2.4%. You'd think he would have a higher left tendency with such an increase overall from 2015. 

Again, looking at the driving numbers with such small margin of difference can not tell the whole picture of what is going on with his swing. 

[iacas]

5 hours ago, natureboy said:

True that center fairway is not always the target line, but I would think the factors that make it not so (fairway cant, doglegs, hazard lines) should roughly balance out over many holes on different courses with the long term shot pattern roughly centered on the middle of the fairway to maximize fairway hits.

That stat isn't an average, though. If you're 40 feet right of the center of the fairway, and 40 feet left on the next hole, you don't get a "0" - you get a "40."

From what @saevel25 said his iron game isn't as sharp. He's hitting it farther and hitting more fairways. Unless he's pulling more balls so much they're going OB or behind trees or something, his driving is likely a bit better or at least about the same as last year.

[Phil McGleno]

3 hours ago, natureboy said:

That's not necessarily true. Broadie's expected strokes to hole out baseline model is built on both distance to the pin before and after a shot as well as where that ball lands. The system he uses assigns expected strokes to complete the hole from actual positions on the course. He is looking at more than just fairway / rough / sand / recovery.

Prove this-I have not seen that mentioned. In fact I have seen him be criticized for calling all rough the same whether there is a tree in the way or not. There is not enough sample data each week to break each hole down into different areas. Some areas might have only four players hitting there or something.

[natureboy]

6 hours ago, saevel25 said:

Since his launch angle and spin rates are nearly the same then there is no proof showing he's hitting up more. Actually, his 2016 numbers are counter to what you should see. If he was hitting up more his launch angle should be higher and his spin rate should be lower. Yet his launch angle is negligibly lower. That doesn't match with hitting up more on the ball.

Who said anything about proof. I'm just wondering about possible reasons. If he was delofting the driver slightly compared to 2015 so the dynamic loft was lower, but with a bit more + AoA it could produce a relatively similar launch angle with lower spin, couldn't it? The 'normal' to the face would be more in line with the AoA for lower spin and higher smash factor...a more 'square' strike in the vertical plane.

6 hours ago, saevel25 said:

I am still betting it's not significant enough to make that substantial difference in proximity to the hole.

I'm not saying his positioning is affecting his proximity, but if this new tendency with driver if it's swing related and if it's also present sometimes in his full iron swing could be an element affecting his iron play. Obviously his iron play is what's most off. I'm wondering what it might be and trying to get some clues from his driving pattern which seems very different from his prior years.

6 hours ago, saevel25 said:

 Again I don't think you can draw a conclusion from his driving numbers. You didn't explain why his 2014 numbers which had a lower peak height, lower launch angle, lower spin rate and he had a more right tendency than left tendency.

I am not drawing a conclusion. In 2014 there was more balance between his left and right misses - a spread of 3% - favoring the right. His best year 2015 there was a spread of 1% - favoring the right. In 2013 (a very good year statistically) there was a spread of 3% - favoring the right. This year there is a spread  of 6% and it's favoring the left, which is opposite from past years. His basic dispersion pattern seems to have shifted. It could be due to different target choice, but I'm curious to see if a swing related cause might explain it.

6 hours ago, saevel25 said:

Looking at the driving numbers with such small margin of difference can not tell the whole picture of what is going on with his swing. 

I don't disagree, but I'm not hurting anyone by wondering am I?

[natureboy]

3 hours ago, Phil McGleno said:

Prove this-I have not seen that mentioned. In fact I have seen him be criticized for calling all rough the same whether there is a tree in the way or not. There is not enough sample data each week to break each hole down into different areas. Some areas might have only four players hitting there or something.

The tables he put in Every Shot Counts for amateurs to estimate SG based on distance and lie is a vastly simplified version of the simulation (remember those chapters from ESC?) he has constructed to develop his models used for analyzing tour play. This is one of the reasons @RandallT's analysis of tour play is slightly off from Broadie's numbers. Broadie is using a more complex analysis of the location of the ball beyond just the fairway, rough, sand, recovery lie that he gives in the book to allow amateurs to make some rough comparisons.

Shot Link has basically charted expected score from likely tour player positions on most of the courses played over its pretty lengthy time in existence. If you look at some of Broadie's papers on simulations you will see that he's also been studying ways to simulate expected strokes for shot locations that are out of the norm. He also was looking at ways to 'chart' obstacles based on satellite photos so he could automatically assign statistically valid expected 'strokes to go' from any course location even if presented with a course where there was sparse or no Shotlink data. In one of the simulation papers there was a whole section on trying to deal with trees both off the tee and and on recovery shots.

3 hours ago, iacas said:

From what @saevel25 said his iron game isn't as sharp. He's hitting it farther and hitting more fairways. Unless he's pulling more balls so much they're going OB or behind trees or something, his driving is likely a bit better or at least about the same as last year.

Definitely agree about the irons. SG Driving despite the distance gain was .58 in 2015 and .6 in 2016 (could be anywhere from .63 to .55 depending on how it was rounded).

<sorry, but the merge window seems to be shriking>

Edited April 6, 2016 by natureboy

[saevel25]

 

20 minutes ago, natureboy said:

I am not drawing a conclusion. In 2014 there was more balance between his left and right misses - a spread of 3% - favoring the right. 

Yea you did draw a conclusion when you stated you thought he might be delofting the driver by closing it down more. That is drawing a conclusion from the fact you see a 0.2 degree less launch angle. 

22 minutes ago, natureboy said:

I don't disagree, but I'm not hurting anyone by wondering am I?

 

 

[natureboy]

24 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Yea you did draw a conclusion when you stated you thought he might be delofting the driver by closing it down more. That is drawing a conclusion from the fact you see a 0.2 degree less launch angle. 

You're right, by the definition I did draw a conclusion based on some available evidence. I misunderstood and thought you were implying I was stating it as a conclusive fact or self-evident when it was just trying to think through a plausible hypothesis. I would like more information too.

The lack of conclusive information doesn't mean that this can't be true: (on average) a more de-lofted driver with more positive AoA (relative to 2015 #'s) could produce a drive that is a bit lower with less spin, higher smash, but still nearly the same launch angle. It may turn out to be wrong, but IMO it's consistent with the numbers we can see.

[natureboy]

16 hours ago, natureboy said:

SG Driving <for Spieth> despite the distance gain was .58  .59 in 2015 and .6 in 2016 (could be anywhere from .63 to .55 depending on how it was rounded).

Correction.

[Phil McGleno]

On 4/6/2016 at 0:12 AM, natureboy said:

The tables he put in Every Shot Counts for amateurs to estimate SG based on distance and lie is a vastly simplified version of the simulation (remember those chapters from ESC?) he has constructed to develop his models used for analyzing tour play. This is one of the reasons @RandallT's analysis of tour play is slightly off from Broadie's numbers. Broadie is using a more complex analysis of the location of the ball beyond just the fairway, rough, sand, recovery lie that he gives in the book to allow amateurs to make some rough comparisons.

Shot Link has basically charted expected score from likely tour player positions on most of the courses played over its pretty lengthy time in existence. If you look at some of Broadie's papers on simulations you will see that he's also been studying ways to simulate expected strokes for shot locations that are out of the norm. He also was looking at ways to 'chart' obstacles based on satellite photos so he could automatically assign statistically valid expected 'strokes to go' from any course location even if presented with a course where there was sparse or no Shotlink data. In one of the simulation papers there was a whole section on trying to deal with trees both off the tee and and on recovery shots.

I do not think it is as specific as you think.-I have heard criticisms that it is too broadly based and some of that may simply be because of how difficult it would be to get real valid stats from areas that are too small. One yard forward in a fairway bunker might be blocked out by the lip but a yard back and it may be fine. Or one yard right and a tree is in the way.