Professors Who Analyzed 1.6 Million Putts

**SubPar** · June 19, 2009

Interesting look at some critical stats of the game. Rings true...

- As golf researcher Mark Broadie has explained, professional golfers make only 15 percent of putts from more than 20 feet....

This week, the New York Times featured the work of two Wharton professors who analyzed 1.6 million putts and found that pros missed more when going for birdie than for par on putts of identical length. They chalked this up to "risk intolerance" (i.e., fear of making a bogey) and calculated that it cost the top 20 golfers significant prize money each year.

from:
Moneygolf
What can stat geeks tell us about what it takes to win on the links?

**pittpanther** · June 19, 2009

How about this one?

"Broadie also pokes a hole in another piece of conventional golf wisdom. Many good golfers have a distance from the green where they feel most comfortable hitting approach shots—perhaps they like to hit a 9-iron from 120 yards. So, on a par 5, if they can't reach the green in two, they will often hit their second shot into that comfort zone, the strategy being that it's better to groove a 9-iron than to sweat over a 40-yard wedge. Broadie has found that the "comfort zone" feeling doesn't hold up. Everybody gets better—they hit it closer—when they are closer to the green."

In other words, stop laying up. Get as close as you can on your approach, even if it means "wedge" distance.

**pittpanther** · June 19, 2009

And this one...

"...Broadie says that the long game is what separates the pros from the rest of us. The ability to hit it both longer and straighter is huge. Here is Broadie's vivid example: "If a low-handicap golfer had Tiger Woods do all of the putting, the gain would be about 2.2 shots per round, but having Tiger Woods hit all shots over 100 yards would lower the score by about 9.3 shots per round." But once you start comparing pros to pros, putting becomes important again."

"Drive for show, putt for dough" - let's put this old chestnut to bed, once and for all. For everyone except a tour pro, driving and approach shots are where most gains can be made.

**SubPar** · June 19, 2009

And this one...

Rich data!

SubPar

**ryohazuki222** · June 20, 2009

How about this one?

Glad to see now I have some support for my theories. Interesting stuff.

**BigBoy** · June 20, 2009

And this one...

I have seen a similar study on amauter golfers - that two players that average the same amount of GIRs will average within 4 shots of each other. A person that averages 3 GIR a round will average between 87 and 91 for their scores, no more, no less. That means someone with a great short game that hits 3 GIRs on average will average 87, and someone with a terrible short game will average 91.

The moral of the article was that all the bogey golfers out there that think they can start shooting 80 by grinding on their short game are mistaken. To average 80, you need to hit at least 6.5 GIR and more likely average 7.5. Without a more than 100% improvement in ball striking, guys like me will never average 80 no matter how good we get around the greens.

**OnePutt** · June 20, 2009

That definitely makes sense. As my scores go down, I notice that I'm getting more GIRs. Focusing on GIR is certainly a great idea, hitting to a comfortable wedge shot, etc from the green never works out.

**Zeph** · June 20, 2009

No doubt about that. Which is why people should keep track of their FIR and GIR. Not to calculate how they should score, but to see how it affects the score and how much easier the game gets if you stay away from trouble. A hole with FIR and GIR and one without is the difference of a birdie putt and a birdie chip where you do not want to be far enough away to risk two putting.

Good short game is useful for when you don't hit the green, but it won't produce many birdies. For those you need to find the green, and preferably the fairway. Approach shots from 150 and in is the biggest scoring zone. That's why good distance control and alignment is so important. If you don't know how far you hit the clubs and align wrong, luck will determine whether you find the green or not.

**Brakkus** · June 20, 2009

No doubt about that. Which is why people should keep track of their FIR and GIR. Not to calculate how they should score, but to see how it affects the score and how much easier the game gets if you stay away from trouble. A hole with FIR and GIR and one without is the difference of a birdie putt and a birdie chip where you do not want to be far enough away to risk two putting.

See I genuinely tried the shoot for bogey golf strategy of getting to greens in three shots.This is fine if you can nail the third shot into the green.I may only 3 putt a couple of times a round so I can come off a course feeling I played well but shot between 100-105.

Taking on holes in 2 is too far above my level obviously so now I need to weigh up the risk based on the hole itself and the length.The approach shot is where it's at I think personally. You can put the ball in play quite easily off the tee if you can resist the hero shot,but that second shot just has to be accurate.Scoring a 6 is always possible even if you hitting the ball totally solid because just a slight pull or a push can make you miss the green and then it's up and down,which is the toughest part of the short game.

***iacas*** · June 20, 2009

No doubt about that. Which is why people should keep track of their FIR and GIR. Not to calculate how they should score, but to see how it affects the score and how much easier the game gets if you stay away from trouble. A hole with FIR and GIR and one without is the difference of a birdie putt and a birdie chip where you do not want to be far enough away to risk two putting.

This is from my stats this year and shows this pretty well. Graph generated by

Scorecard :

**mruseless** · June 20, 2009

Taking on holes in 2 is too far above my level obviously so now I need to weigh up the risk based on the hole itself and the length.The approach shot is where it's at I think personally.

If you can't reach the par 4's in two, you should move up a set of tees, even if its to the reds (but I do know how the male ego plays into this!). This study jives very well with my personal experience, I used to think that the difference between the blue and white tees didn't matter much. But this year I started playing from the whites, thinking that I'll move back when I can consistently shoot in the 80's from the whites. And guess what? My scores are significantly lower from the whites, even when the difference is only a couple hundred yards. The difference ends up being in the number of greens I can reach on my second shot.

Disclaimer: I still put in most of my practice time on the green and short game.

**Marinemike** · June 20, 2009

So where are all of the naysayers to decry this study? All everybody talks about when practice regimes come up is short game and how dang important it is. Yes, it's bad to 3 putt, so you don't want to not practice putting, after that, in my world at least, it's distance and accuracy with 5-8 iron, then distance and accuracy with "Mr Taylormade."

I tried to make myself spend more time chipping, and I have gotten better at it, but my major stats of about 1.7 GIR and 36 putts needs to get better. Although getting up and down is an amazing skill to have, being able to put it within 20 feet of the pin, and then being deadly with the flat stick is going to yield a much lower average score than a good pitch and chip game.

Can anybody convince me otherwise, especially after the extensive research presented?

**Brakkus** · June 20, 2009

If you can't reach the par 4's in two, you should move up a set of tees, even if its to the reds (but I do know how the male ego plays into this!). This study jives very well with my personal experience, I used to think that the difference between the blue and white tees didn't matter much. But this year I started playing from the whites, thinking that I'll move back when I can consistently shoot in the 80's from the whites. And guess what? My scores are significantly lower from the whites, even when the difference is only a couple hundred yards. The difference ends up being in the number of greens I can reach on my second shot.

Well here in the UK it's whites are comp tees,and you can't play them unless you are in a comp.Yellows are the mens and reds are for the ladies.Nearly every course I play at the club pro has said you have to go off the yellows only,and at most courses I play here that puts me around 6000-6400 yards. I have the length to go for par 4's up to about 440,but that doesn't mean I should,like I said earlier it's very much risk reward.If it's under 400 and the hole looks like it could be attacked I will go for it in 2,it's when they are slightly above around that 420 ish area. If I want shorter golf I can always play a few of the par 66 courses round here although they are in short supply.

**AmenCorner** · June 20, 2009

This is from my stats this year and shows this pretty well. Graph generated by

That is remarkable. It would be even better if you put in a trend line in there. Nonetheless, very neat.

**AmenCorner** · June 20, 2009

And this one...

This is interesting I guess but not really that informative. I'm an 8 handicap yet never would have assumed that a better short game would put me close to the tour. I fully realize those guys hit a golf ball remarkably better than I do, even though I feel like I can put a damn good swing on the ball.

In addition. Improving your short game a shot or two a round, in my opinion, is a lot easier than the long game.

**shortstop20** · June 21, 2009

I've always thought this was true myself. Not so much at the tour level because they all hit full shots good.

For the average golfer though increasing your wood and iron play will make you a much better player. I go to the range about once every week or so(that's all I have time to, 30 miles away) and have shot scores this year that I now call average, had I shot that score last year I would've been jumping up and down for joy. Meanwhile I have spent minimal time practicing my short game. I would say my practice time is 80% range, 20% short game/putting. The thing is, you have to make your range time USEFUL practice, going out there and whacking 5 buckets in an hour isn't gonna do anything besides make you tired and waste money. Approach every shot like it's a shot on the course. Make your practice useful, think about what's working, what's not, analyzing what you did right/wrong on that shot and attempt to fix it on the next shot.

If I hit five buckets of balls(40 balls or so each bucket) I'm out on the range for about 4 hours. Analysis between shots, practice swings, swing adjustments, pre-shot routine, etc. is all important when at the range IMO. I also take a 1/2 hour break during the middle of my practice session.

**BigBoy** · June 21, 2009

So where are all of the naysayers to decry this study? All everybody talks about when practice regimes come up is short game and how dang important it is.

I am a big believer in GIR being the strongest indicator as to what a person's handicap is going to be, so I'm not going to try to convince you otherwise.

I think there are two reasons why people say that short game practice is so important - 1. If you are playing competitive golf, a good short game might steal you a match on an off ball striking day. Keep in mind that these studies are looking at the big picture, 100s of rounds. In one particular round, if your ball striking is off, but your short game is on that day, you might be able to shoot 80 with only 4 GIRs and get you a victory, higher finish etc - 2. While there are uphill lies, different types of rough etc - a full golf swing is a full golf swing (for the average weekend golfer) , and most of the time practicing will be on the range hitting off of level and consistent lies. So why spend 4 hours just doing the same thing over and over again given the average amateur's time constraints. The category deemed the "short game" includes MANY variations of different shots. Chips from the fringe, putting, bunker shots, 20 yard pitch shots over a hazard while short sided. Given the same 4 hour scenario outlined before, you could take the time to work on several different shots, at least enough when you are faced with them on the course you have some idea of what you want to do, and how you want to go about it. There is no worse feeling on a golf course than sitting over a shot and thinking, "well, I have NO idea what I'm trying to do here, and this is something I've never practiced" and basically take a chop at it and hope you get lucky.

**AmenCorner** · June 21, 2009

First off, 4 shots when you normally shoot 80-84 is kind of a big deal. If I shoot 82 on average and my short game is average. I think I could pick up 2 shots a round if I just devote a little practice time to it without sacrificing long game. If it is just a matter of devoting 20-30% of your practice time to it whereas you might have only devoted 10% or so before. I think that says a lot about the short game.

In my opinion, it would be MUCH harder to find 2 shots in your long game without devoting more time to the range. This usually requires lessons or diligent work on your swing.

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