Be Careful Reading Your Next Putt from Your First

[iacas]

Here's a tale that comes from my friend, a putting instructor of some repute.

A player in his student's group, playing a money game against his player, rolled a putt past the hole. It rolled high of the hole by a foot or two and crossed behind the hole about 3' away before rolling to a stop at about 6' beyond the hole. The player said "well, since it was so downhill, it's got to be straight back up now." My buddy the instructor said "Oh, I wouldn't be so sure. I'd read it to check." The player, who feels he's a good putter, made the putt and said "see, it was straight." (My buddy didn't watch the putt, as he was off working with his player, but he doubts very much it was truly straight given the green's geometry.)

Here's the last bit of the putt in graphical form:

That second putt ain't straight. Had he missed low, he may have had a straight putt:

Those two are no different, really, than these closer misses:

A putt with a bunch of break won't get back to the line:

A putt that misses high but doesn't ever cross the fall line can be straight:

But a putt that misses high and carries on really can't be straight:

In fact, there are only six real outcomes, and only two result in a straight second putt:

In graphical format…

Putts can finish high or low, and then short of the line, on the line, or past the line.

In the above, A could turn into D, E, or F (or go in the hole) if it's hit harder. B can turn into C or F, and C can only ever turn into F. But, unless the green's fall line twists away from the hole, very few putts that miss the hole end up on the straight aim line.

What's more, consider putts C and F. Both are left-to-right putts initially, but the resulting second putt is… right to left! And even though putt D finished below the hole and appears to have finished "past" the hole (from where it was putted, it is past the hole), it didn't finish past the fall line, so it will still break left-to-right (as will A, but since that didn't reach either the hole OR the fall line, that one is more obvious).

Besides… any putt that rolls past the hole has its speed profile "flipped" — it is going fastest near the hole and slowest far from the hole, which is the opposite of the resulting putt — a putt that "breaks" six inches from the hole to its final resting spot may not break six inches on the way back (if for no other reason than that the ball will likely be holed with more than fall-over-the-lip speed).

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So, what's the takeaway here?

A putt that misses across a slope is unlikely to end up directly on the fall line and, thus, to result in a straight putt.

Don't give too much weight to how a putt finishes in determining how it will roll to the hole from there. The farther the putt finishes from the hole (and the farther the putt misses the hole at its nearest point), the less weight you should give it.

[Carl3]

I had created a rule of thumb where in coming back from a downhill breaking putt, I would assume half of the break coming back uphill. This is a common miss for me:

 

The observation had served me fairly well, but you present a nice analysis that indicates searching for the fall line is critical.

Looking forward to take an Aim Point class some day. 

[Shindig]

When I read this, it makes so much sense.  Without having given it much thought before, I had assumed the opposite up to and including yesterday's round (and I can count for-sure a double bogey I made where I assumed that it would be straight for my bogey putt).

This is going to have to be something I keep in mind going forward. 

[DrvFrShow]

My takeaway here is to take nothing for granted. I read the second putt as a new putt given a little more information from others having putted.

[batchvt]

Very good point.