Election Predictions

[Chilli Dipper]

We are now less than 24 hours away from Election Day (at least on the East Coast). Enough with the banter: how do you see Tuesday playing out? Here's what I think.

U.S. President
Barack Obama (D-IL): 52.8%, 367 electoral votes
John McCain (R-AZ): 45.6%, 171 electoral votes

I think that a lot of pundits' projections are taking into account a McCain surge that I don't see developing in most of the states that he needs to win. Most news sources call the election for Obama shortly after 9:00 PM Eastern Time as precincts in Colorado and New Mexico start reporting vote counts. In the end, Obama adds Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, Colorado, and New Mexico to the Democratic column from Bush's 2004 count, while McCain fails to pick up any states that went to Kerry.
Surprise of the Night: Obama wins North Dakota by a point and a half.
Closest Finish: Indiana is a repeat of the nailbiter Democratic primary there, with McCain having to sweat out a rush of precincts in the east Chicago suburbs reporting heavily for Obama. McCain finishes less than 1,000 votes ahead of Obama; with the election already in hand, Obama wishes to decline a recount, and the results are confirmed early Wednesday.

U.S. Senate
Democrats: 56*
Independents: 2
Republicans: 41*
*Georgia seat goes to runoff

Begich (AK), M. Udall (CO), Hagan (NC), Shaheen (NH), T. Udall (NM), Merkley (OR), and M. Warner (VA) all make Democratic gains in formerly Republican seats. Coleman barely retains his seat over Franken and Barkley in Minnesota. Neither Chambliss nor Martin earn a majority of the vote in Georgia, forcing a runoff election December 2.

U.S. House of Representatives
Democrats: 262
Republicans: 173

Democrats pick up 26 more seats to solidify their majority in the lower house. Most notably, Bachmann (MN-6) and Hayes (NC-8) lose their seats after their respective cases of Foot in Mouth Disease (also known as McCarthy Disorder).

[PEZGolf]

I agree with you:

Some of the statements by those taking polls are laughable. How can anyone rely on their conclusions when they try to "hedge their bets" right in the beginning. In the New York "Post" yesterday, it is stated that the Zogby poll shows McCain ahead 48% to 47% Nationwide!! Then, John Zogby is quoted twice: "there's a lot of fluidity" still in the race, and the following---"so things can tighten OR GO LANDSLIDE---there's a lot of volaitility". What a way to "cover all bases"---close race or LANDSLIDE??
The bottom line is this: the economy is THE issue, overshadowing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, healthcare, taxes and spending, Social Security, and immigration. John McCain had a chance and in my opinion, if he had picked Mitt Romney or another candidate with excellent experience and views on the economy, he would win this election. Instead, he made a poor selection in Sarah Palin, and that, my friends, is going to cause his defeat, in a close election nation wide, but by a large margin in electoral votes. The Obama people have shown they understand electoral politics, and the Electoral College.

[Chilli Dipper]

The defining moment of the 2008 election came at the Republican National Convention, when speaker after speaker walked onto the stage and mocked Obama's experience as a community organizer. While the people close to the McCain campaign were making jokes, the Obama campaign was assembling a coalition of enthusiastic and dedicated volunteers in all fifty states, creating a grassroots effort that stretched the Republicans' resources beyond what they could afford. Put the issues aside for a moment and focus on the sweet irony of this election: For all of the GOP's poo-pooing of community organizing, that is precisely why they are in such dire straits right now. I guarantee that no politician will ever make the mistake of disregarding his/her opponent's service record ever again.

[glebert]

Man, I think I am going to take the day off work and go play 27 holes, just so I don't sit at work and stare at the political websites.

I think I'll buy a bottle of champagne and a bottle of whiskey tonight, just so I'm covered either way.

[Chilli Dipper]

Man, I think I am going to take the day off work and go play 27 holes, just so I don't sit at work and stare at the political websites.

I think we can all concur with that!

[Awsi Dooger]

I'll go a bit lower. My Excel model suggests 51.8% for Obama, 46.5 for McCain, and 1.7% distributed among the third party candidates.

Admittedly, I'm stubborn and I probably haven't adjusted upwards enough based on the economic collapse, or the rise in African-American turnout.

In specific states, I'll say Obama wins the major electoral prizes like Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado, but McCain narrowly holds North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, Missouri and Georgia. Many of those figure to be very tight. The only Obama victory among that block that would stun me is Georgia. If Obama's national margin is indeed 7 or higher, some of those states will fall his way. If it's closer to 5 or 6 then they stay with the GOP.

Democrats should take 7 senate additions but I believe Coleman will narrowly edge Franken in Minnesota, and Chambliss barely avoids a runoff in Georgia.

The two tight gov races are Washington and North Carolina. I predict the Democrats Gregoire and Perdue will win narrowly, each in the 2% range.

I haven't paid much attention to the House races. Brief work the past few days leads me to +24 net for Democrats. Some pundits are estimating much higher, 35 or more, but I believe the GOP will win the majority of close races since they are primarily on Republican turf. Here in Las Vegas, I think Dina Titus will edge incumbent Jon Porter in NV-3. Porter is a scumbag. He disappears for 2 years then bases his entire campaign on savage negative commercials against the Democratic nominee. The local media always blasts him for it, pointing out the false claims, but he smiles and ignores it, then repeats the same thing two years later.

[iacas]

The Steelers won tonight so Obama will win tomorrow. 18 for the last 18.

[EquipmentJunkie]

The Steelers won tonight so Obama will win tomorrow. 18 for the last 18.

Hey Erik there is one minute left in the game Washington is only down by 18...thats only 3 onside kicks....it could happen! ;)

[Cizzle]

The defining moment of the 2008 election came at the Republican National Convention, when speaker after speaker walked onto the stage and mocked Obama's experience as a community organizer. While the people close to the McCain campaign were making jokes, the Obama campaign was assembling a coalition of enthusiastic and dedicated volunteers in all fifty states, creating a grassroots effort that stretched the Republicans' resources beyond what they could afford. Put the issues aside for a moment and focus on the sweet irony of this election: For all of the GOP's poo-pooing of community organizing, that is precisely why they are in such dire straits right now. I guarantee that no politician will ever make the mistake of disregarding his/her opponent's service record ever again.

.... The defining moment of this election was when the housing market crashed and the stock market fell apart.... Anyone who knows

anything about politics knew Obama would be president at that point. Check the Gallup polls, McCain was up/even, and then never has the lead again. It reminds me of the Futurama episode. " My first order of business is to blame everything on the guy before me ." An easy win for the Dems, no matter who was running. As for "I guarantee that no politician will ever make the mistake of disregarding his/her opponent's service record ever again.", you do not know how politics work. It's a tactic, the Republicans used it and it worked for Kerry, they used it again and it had no real impact on Obama. The Dems tried it on McCain and it was immediately gone because it made them look bad. It really is a game, if Obama messes up in office, do not expect a Dem as president for at least 2 terms. If he does well, expect him here for 8 years. P.S. Why is no one talking about gas prices, global warming, etc. Because Obama is on the offensive saying 8 years of Repubs have screwed everyone, and because JM is on the defense. No one cares that gas prices are down at least 20% (here), but that we're in an economic crisis.

[st0wgolf08]

We are now less than 24 hours away from Election Day (at least on the East Coast). Enough with the banter: how do you see Tuesday playing out? Here's what I think.

I seriously doubt the electoral college votes will be that spread out.

[ganjagolfer]

my prediction or something i envision is the end of negative campaigning. the real straight talking is what native americans lived. if the white americans can't get their truth talking together, they should all go back to europe where they came. probably will be getting pretty crowded there with all the white australians getting kicked out of australia by the aborigenees. hopefully no one will have to leave and the healing of the land will begin.

this world can be so beautiful and special when we connect with our inner divinity.

we can heal the world!

[st0wgolf08]

my prediction or something i envision is the end of negative campaigning. the real straight talking is what native americans lived. if the white americans can't get their truth talking together, they should all go back to europe where they came. probably will be getting pretty crowded there with all the white australians getting kicked out of australia by the aborigenees. hopefully no one will have to leave and the healing of the land will begin.

White bashing? Wasn't this thread about the election?

[ERC7.5]

The Steelers won tonight so Obama will win tomorrow. 18 for the last 18.

haha! I saw that stat and started pulling for the 'skins! Then I realized that this was a pretty important win for the Steelers and that straightened me right out.

[Chilli Dipper]

I seriously doubt the electoral college votes will be that spread out.

Feel free to reveal how you see the map turning out, then.

[st0wgolf08]

Feel free to reveal how you see the map turning out, then.

I haven't thought much about the college, I just think it will be like around 300-238, not that exact number just somewhere around there, with McCain winning.

[ganjagolfer]

White bashing? Wasn't this thread about the election?

white man talk in forked tongue with all this negative campaigning

[Chilli Dipper]

I haven't thought much about the college, I just think it will be like around 300-238, not that exact number just somewhere around there, with McCain winning.

How does McCain pick up 300 electoral votes?

[rangerat]

The Steelers won tonight so Obama will win tomorrow. 18 for the last 18.

Interesting Urban Legend but not true

... http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/redskins.asp