Tiger and "The Record"

[CalBoomer]

Most of the buzz around Tiger's recent funk and whether or not he will break Nicklaus' record for major wins devolves into "Yes he will" or "No he won't" camps. Here is a more nuanced view.

Sports has always had transcendent athletes who--for a period of time--excelled way beyond their contemporaries. Babe Ruth, Jim Brown, Roger Federer, Michael Jordan, Lebron James--and Tiger Woods. None of them have, can, or will maintain that level of performance indefinitely. I do not think anyone could make the argument that, for peak performance, Tiger is now just as good as he was 10 years ago, all the other crap notwithstanding. At the same time, the general level of excellence among young golfers is increasing, not just in the US but around the world. So, in this environment, a Tiger with deteriorating skills will need to win one major every other year over the next ten years or one major per year for the next five years to exceed Nicklaus. Given that five major wins is a lifetime, Hall of Fame achievement for most very good golfers, I would have to say that the odds are against him. Were I handicapping for Las Vegas, I would give him no better than 5:1 odds, if that.

[motteler621]

a player like tiger, if he wins a major in a given year, more than likely he is going to win another that same year atleast

[Game]

Yeah I agree with motteler... Tiger woods is at a point in his life where most good golfers of old STARTED winning majors. So your argument that he's getting too old is moot imo

[Tiger Spuds]

Yeah I agree with motteler... Tiger woods is at a point in his life where most good golfers of old STARTED winning majors. So your argument that he's getting too old is moot imo

That's a good point. Tiger was asked about it himself last week if I remember correctly and he pointed out that Ben Hogan won his first of 9 Majors at Tiger's age.

Of course it remains to be seen what kind of mental baggage Tiger still has, but he has between 10 and 15 years to win 5 majors. That's a long time. Edit : Actually, lets work it out. If a guy like like Kenny Perry can be competitive on tour until the age of 50, then we can assume that Tiger, a naturally fitter person, can also compete 'till that age providing he stays injury free and doesn't retire early etc. So, that gives him 16 years left on Tour. Again, providing he remains fit, we can assume he'll play every Major every year. 16 x 4 = 64 remaining attempts to win a Major. With signs that he's getting his swing under control, I like his odds of breaking the record, and by quite a margin.

[sean_miller]

Lebron James is no Tiger Woods.

[CalBoomer]

Lebron James is no Tiger Woods.

Is that on the basketball court or the golf course?

[CalBoomer]

That's a good point. Tiger was asked about it himself last week if I remember correctly and he pointed out that Ben Hogan won his first of 9 Majors at Tiger's age.

Jack Nicklaus won exactly one major after the age of 40, and he was not playing against the extremely deep talent pool that exists today. I really don't understand why people expect Tiger to be superhuman.

[Tiger Spuds]

Jack Nicklaus won exactly one major after the age of 40, and he was not playing against the extremely deep talent pool that exists today. I really don't understand why people expect Tiger to be superhuman.

But Tiger has 6 years 'till he hits 40. Plenty of Major chances in that period too. And it's not that anyone expects him to be superhuman, just that he's proven time and time again that he can get it done in Majors. Besides, Jack has said himself that he lacked the motivation to win at the end of his career. In his own opinion he achieved 70% of what he could have achieved in the game. I think Tiger has the motivation and will in him to at least push him over the line given the amount of time he has left, whether he regains his very top form or not.

[GaijinGolfer]

I think part of it for a lot of people is that for song long it was pretty much a given that Tiger would surpass Jack, so its difficult for them to even accept the most remote possibility that he might not surpass Jack.
Tiger's problem has nothing to do with his age. In terms of golf, he should be just hitting his prime. Its all mental. If Tiger can clear his mind of all the distractions and all the other BS and just focus on golf, he will be fine. Whether he can/will or not remains to be seen.

[JWL1957]

Jack Nicklaus won exactly one major after the age of 40, and he was not playing against the extremely deep talent pool that exists today. I really don't understand why people expect Tiger to be superhuman.

Yeah........ but there is a difference between deeper talent and the balls to win. Tigers opposition would have been better served to be sponsored by some baby diaper companies. They folded up like lawn chairs when they were paired with Tiger. Deeper talent doesnt mean a damn thing when the other players a chunking up thier breakfast when in Tigers presence. Take todays players back 30 years with a dead ball that curved like crazy, and persimmon heads, and see if the have the same driver & PW game.

[uttexas]

Unless he's completely lost his mojo, Tiger won't rest until he breaks Nicklaus' major record. I get the impression, he'd play The Open and The Masters into his 60s if he hasn't broken it by then.

[CalBoomer]

I think part of it for a lot of people is that for song long it was pretty much a given that Tiger would surpass Jack, so its difficult for them to even accept the most remote possibility that he might not surpass Jack.

Tiger is 35. Even for golfers, that is not hitting your prime. Consider at age 35: Faldo had won 5/6, Nicklaus 14/18, Nelson 5/5, Palmer 7/7, Trevino 6/6. Hogan won 9 in a seven year span in his late 30s and early 40s and Snead won 7 in an eight year span at about the same age, in the late 1940s and early 1950s when they were each others main competition and the overall field was thin. Gary Player, the fitness freak, is the main exception to this data, winning 5/9 before 35 and 4/9 after.

The bottom line here is that golfers, like most professional athletes, are not hitting their prime at 35. Kenny Perry may have been competitive for routine tournaments into his late forties, but he was not winning majors. I have nothing against Tiger. If he should break Nicklaus record, though, he should be given credit for an incredible achievement, not something that was/is a forgone conclusion.

[senorchipotle]

what are we even talking about? we all know that tiger is going through a slump, one which has earned him 2 top 10's in majors this year, and lots of money, on a swing that belongs to about a 10 handicap. tiger will go to the range this winter, work everything out, and win two of the five majors he needs to past jack next year. and all those who doubted will pretend as if they never did.

[motteler621]

The bottom line here is that golfers, like most professional athletes, are not hitting their prime at 35.

Thats not true. Actually they are just reaching their prime in the mid 30's. Ive heard pro golfers asked what is the age in which golfers reach their prime, They all say mid 30's up to mid 40's. I even looked online really quick and came up with this that prooves what I have heard the pros say.

http://www.think-golf.info/archives/...ch-their-peak/

[MrKadash]

Jack Nicklaus won exactly one major after the age of 40, and he was not playing against the extremely deep talent pool that exists today.

For those that believe this, how exactly is that conclusion proven?

[GaijinGolfer]

Yeah........ but there is a difference between

Players today dont fear Tiger like they used to. The, "Tiger effect" is gone.

[GaijinGolfer]

The bottom line here is that golfers, like most professional athletes, are not hitting their prime at 35.

You couldnt be more wrong if you tried.

[soup]

Jack Nicklaus won exactly one major after the age of 40, and he was not playing against the extremely deep talent pool that exists today. I really don't understand why people expect Tiger to be superhuman.

Jack wasn't exactly the most physically fit guy during his career - he carried an extra 20-25 pounds throughout his career - which had to have helped him hit a bit of a wall as he approached 40.