2014 NCAA Football

[saevel25]

Pretty safe bet that tonight's top 4 teams will be MSU, FSU, Auburn and Oregon ????

MSU and Auburn clearly have the bumpiest remaining roads.  FSU has a couple of usually-tough rivalry games in Miami and Florida coming up, but no games against ranked teams.  And if Oregon doesn't have any trouble getting by Utah this weekend (they shouldn't) then it's a cakewalk for them the rest of the way.

I think Florida State wins out. I guess if Florida runs the ball on FSU like they did against Georgia they can play keep away. FSU's defense isn't as good as last year's team. So that could go all crazy. If they loose to Florida I think they will drop a good amount.

I think Oregon wins out

The key is, I think Alabama wins out. For me their last three games are at home. Their biggest test might be this weekend at LSU. God forbid I am betting against the Witch Doctor Les Miles down in the Bayou. If that game is with in a TD going into the 4th quarter I am switching my pick. You need at least 14 points to feel safe against the voodoo magic Les Miles has. The SEC west will decide how many SEC teams get in. Even still, I don't think 2 from the SEC west will get in now that Ole. Miss has 2 losses already.

Now the fun part, the 4th seed. I see both Notre Dame and TCU winning out. I don't think Miss. St. will be considered because they would not play in the conference championship. I see Ohio State winning out because I am a fan, and they have the best shot in the Big Ten at 26%.

I don't think Ohio States record is that impressive to pass TCU or Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame has more appeal for the money, so sorry TCU, your out!

#1 Seed: Florida State (12-0)

#2 Seed: Oregon (11-1)

#3 Seed: Alabama (11-1)

#4 Seed: Notre Dame (11-1)

Left Out 1 loss teams: TCU,  Ohio State, Miss. State

Even in this situation, the best bet for me would be if the SEC west went all crazy on each other.

Lets say Alabama looses to LSU

Lets say Miss. St looses to Alabama and Ole. miss.

That would put each team in the SEC west at 2 losses. I am not entirely sure a 2-loss team gets in especially if Notre Dame wins out, and their only loss is at FSU on a good Pick Call . You still have the winner of the Pac-12.

If that scenario happens then it might be

#1 Seed: FSU

#2 Seed: Oregon

#3 Seed: TCU

#4 Seed: Notre Dame

Lets go all crazy and add that FSU looses to Florida. Lets say Oregon looses to Arizona State in the Pac-12 championship. Yet Arizona State loses to Arizona. So now you have no 1 loss teams from the Pac-12. You have no 1 loss teams from the SEC. Just bumping people up the rankings. Though I think at that point a 2-loss SEC champ would crack the playoff.

#1 TCU (1-loss)

#2 Notre Dame  (1-Loss)

#3 Winner of the SEC West at 2-losses

#4 Ohio State (1-Loss)

Out: Miss. State (2-losses).

I believe my math is right that in this scenario there could be no undefeated teams and only three 1-loss teams left.

I am rooting for the last one if I did the math right. Hard to keep track of who plays who and conference champs.

[Golfingdad]

I think Florida State wins out. I guess if Florida runs the ball on FSU like they did against Georgia they can play keep away. FSU's defense isn't as good as last year's team. So that could go all crazy. If they loose to Florida I think they will drop a good amount.

I think Oregon wins out

The key is, I think Alabama wins out. For me their last three games are at home. Their biggest test might be this weekend at LSU. God forbid I am betting against the Witch Doctor Les Miles down in the Bayou. If that game is with in a TD going into the 4th quarter I am switching my pick. You need at least 14 points to feel safe against the voodoo magic Les Miles has. The SEC west will decide how many SEC teams get in. Even still, I don't think 2 from the SEC west will get in now that Ole. Miss has 2 losses already.

Now the fun part, the 4th seed. I see both Notre Dame and TCU winning out. I don't think Miss. St. will be considered because they would not play in the conference championship. I see Ohio State winning out because I am a fan, and they have the best shot in the Big Ten at 26%.

I don't think Ohio States record is that impressive to pass TCU or Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame has more appeal for the money, so sorry TCU, your out!

#1 Seed: Florida State (12-0)

#2 Seed: Oregon (11-1)

#3 Seed: Alabama (11-1)

#4 Seed: Notre Dame (11-1)

Left Out 1 loss teams: TCU,  Ohio State, Miss. State

Even in this situation, the best bet for me would be if the SEC west went all crazy on each other.

Lets say Alabama looses to LSU

Lets say Miss. St looses to Alabama and Ole. miss.

That would put each team in the SEC west at 2 losses. I am not entirely sure a 2-loss team gets in especially if Notre Dame wins out, and their only loss is at FSU on a good Pick Call . You still have the winner of the Pac-12.

If that scenario happens then it might be

#1 Seed: FSU

#2 Seed: Oregon

#3 Seed: TCU

#4 Seed: Notre Dame

Lets go all crazy and add that FSU looses to Florida. Lets say Oregon looses to Arizona State in the Pac-12 championship. Yet Arizona State loses to Arizona. So now you have no 1 loss teams from the Pac-12. You have no 1 loss teams from the SEC. Just bumping people up the rankings. Though I think at that point a 2-loss SEC champ would crack the playoff.

#1 TCU (1-loss)

#2 Notre Dame  (1-Loss)

#3 Winner of the SEC West at 2-losses

#4 Ohio State (1-Loss)

Out: Miss. State (2-losses).

I believe my math is right that in this scenario there could be no undefeated teams and only three 1-loss teams left.

I am rooting for the last one if I did the math right. Hard to keep track of who plays who and conference champs.

This is fun!

That said ... I think you're first scenario is nuts because you think Notre Dame (currently 10th) will somehow jump past a one-loss Mississippi State?  That's crazy.  Unless that one loss comes at the hands of UT Martin or Vanderbilt. If they lose a close game to Alabama or Ole Miss they ain't dropping below ND.

And I think your second scenario is nuts because even with two losses, I can't see how it's possible to have a playoff without an SEC team.  Unless, the winner of the SEC West has 2 losses going into the Championship game and gets beat.  I can see them missing out altogether if the choices are Missouri as conference champ, 3-loss West division champ, and a couple of 2-loss non West division champions.

And your last scenario ... well that's just bonkers.  I don't see any flaws in it (although I'd like to think that if ASU loses to Arizona they won't make the Pac-12 championship game - Go Bruins! ;))  but it's just crazy to think about.

[saevel25]

This is fun!

That said ... I think you're first scenario is nuts because you think Notre Dame (currently 10th) will somehow jump past a one-loss Mississippi State?  That's crazy.  Unless that one loss comes at the hands of UT Martin or Vanderbilt.   If they lose a close game to Alabama or Ole Miss they ain't dropping below ND.

And I think your second scenario is nuts because even with two losses, I can't see how it's possible to have a playoff without an SEC team.  Unless, the winner of the SEC West has 2 losses going into the Championship game and gets beat.  I can see them missing out altogether if the choices are Missouri as conference champ, 3-loss West division champ, and a couple of 2-loss non West division champions.

And your last scenario ... well that's just bonkers.  I don't see any flaws in it (although I'd like to think that if ASU loses to Arizona they won't make the Pac-12 championship game - Go Bruins! ;))  but it's just crazy to think about.

Yea I could see ND being left out. I think TCU would be in their though. Their schedule has been crazy.

On the 2nd scenario,

My theory is FSU would be in there, a no loss team

Oregon would win the Pac-12, I don't see them being left out.

I don't think the Big 12 would be left out wit TCU at one loss

Then you have Miss. St. at 2 losses, you have Alabama at 2-losses.

My question is does a 2-loss SEC west trump a 1-loss Notre Dame who's only loss was on a ref's decision at the end of the game at FSU, which would be the number 1 team in the country at that point.

Also, you have the scenario of a FSU versus ND rematch. You also have ND who is a national brand and travels well.

I am just saying that in that case I think it is possible, not definite, but possible an SEC team does not make it.

What would seal the deal would be if Alabama has 2 losses going in the conference championship. Then they loose to either Georgia or Missouri. Now do you allow a Miss. St. team at 2-losses, who did not play in a conference championship game, go ahead of ND. I wouldn't put them above.

Third scenario is a pipe dream I am rooting for. GO LSU TIGERS!!!

[Golfingdad]

Yea I could see ND being left out. I think TCU would be in their though. Their schedule has been crazy.

On the 2nd scenario,

My theory is FSU would be in there, a no loss team

Oregon would win the Pac-12, I don't see them being left out.

I don't think the Big 12 would be left out wit TCU at one loss

Then you have Miss. St. at 2 losses, you have Alabama at 2-losses.

My question is does a 2-loss SEC west trump a 1-loss Notre Dame who's only loss was on a ref's decision at the end of the game at FSU, which would be the number 1 team in the country at that point.

Also, you have the scenario of a FSU versus ND rematch. You also have ND who is a national brand and travels well.

I am just saying that in that case I think it is possible, not definite, but possible an SEC team does not make it.

What would seal the deal would be if Alabama has 2 losses going in the conference championship. Then they loose to either Georgia or Missouri. Now do you allow a Miss. St. team at 2-losses, who did not play in a conference championship game, go ahead of ND. I wouldn't put them above.

Third scenario is a pipe dream I am rooting for. GO LSU TIGERS!!!

OK, I'm just thinking that with them all the way down at 10 right now, that is a long road.  But if they can win impressively over ASU and USC, and perhaps get some help with ASU and USC winning all of their other games, then maybe you're right.  One "loss" against the best team in the country.  (Just putting quotes for fun.  They lost legitimately, but a no-call at the end would also have been legitimate)

Monkey wrench:  Everything else the same but MSU beats you guys (and wins the rest).  Who deserves to be in as the fourth team?  A Michigan State team with a road loss to Oregon, or a ND team with a road loss to FSU?  I would vote ND because they will have beaten more ranked teams (perhaps as many as 4 when its all said and done)

P.S.  Stop saying "loose," you dumbass!

[saevel25]

Monkey wrench:  Everything else the same but MSU beats you guys (and wins the rest).  Who deserves to be in as the fourth team?  A Michigan State team with a road loss to Oregon, or a ND team with a road loss to FSU?  I would vote ND because they will have beaten more ranked teams (perhaps as many as 4 when its all said and done)

P.S.  Stop saying "loose," you dumbass!

Probably Michigan State. I think playing in the conference title game is what will set them apart. It is one extra game to add to the resume. Michigan State is already ahead of them in the rankings.

[teamroper60]

I'm not pumping up anything. I am just stating the fact that Penn State's Defense is very good. I have not once overestimated how good Penn States Defense is.

How would my pumping up the Buckeyes matter at all. I have no contact with the selection committee. You make it seem I have some magical power to decide it all with this argument on the thread.

So are people's opinions, typically more so than actual stats.

Wrong because you can have a 2-loss team that is more deserving than a 1-loss or no-loss team. Heck I would say that Florida State could be a team that might not be deserving enough to to make it even undefeated.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

By Sagarin's strength of schedule, they have the 40th best SOS. If it ended today I would say the top 4 from the SEC west are all more deserving off play off spots.

I know shocking right, a big ten fan is saying the playoff should have all SEC teams.

Uh oh now you have gone and jinxed them

I just want to see it be a huge mess at the end of the year. One it  will help Ohio State. Two, I thought the 4 team playoff was too conservative of a step. I always thought 8 teams were the optimal number. I rather see chaos and talking points so they will change it.

Still we have 5 major conferences, so to mach up with your theory, take the 5 conference champions then the next best 3. That way you can actually pick a non-major conference team as well. Lets say ND goes undefeated on year.

That way if ND wants to stay out of a conference the only penalty would be to have the back door win in the conference championship, but they are still not shut out.

Yeah, right.   Needing double OT to beat a team with a 4-4 record, when you are hoping to make the top 4 by season's end.  Yeah.  No reason to pump that team's defense up at all..   Uh huh.   Sure.    Totally believeable... Keep hawking that all you want, I'm not buying it.  Especially after having seen PSU play several times this year.    BTW, I notice in the Sagarin rankings, PSU's SOS is 57.   Auburn's is 2.   Yet PSU has the better defense?  Sure.  Tell me again how cupcakes aren't affecting those other rankings.....   No wait.  I said I was done with this discussion and I am.   So you can keep deluding yourself all you want.   I don't care.

I disagree that winning isn't the only stat that matters.   You have to win.   Losing to a better/equal team is still losing.   Moral victories is a really poor way to determine a champion.   SOS should only matter for seedings once the champions are determined.

Regarding the conference champ only playoff.   Who said anything about limiting it to the "Power 5?"   I sure didn't and I don't think it should be.  Apparently you missed my comment about Boise St.   EVERY FBS conference champ gets to play.    Give the Butler's and Richmond's of FBS football a chance at the big boys.   I am firmly in the camp that says a few years back Boise should have been given a chance.   But they weren't, simply because the rules were set up to favor the "Power 5".   I say let them play.   Are they going to win?   Most likely not.   But then again, we won't know if they aren't given the chance to try.  However it shakes out after a playoff of champions, the winner will have earned the title of National Champion and that conference will have bragging rights for the year, without anybody being able to say the deck was stacked in favor of that conference.  Who knows, if it were set up that way, the B1G might have a chance................

[saevel25]

Yeah, right.   Needing double OT to beat a team with a 4-4 record, when you are hoping to make the top 4 by season's end.  Yeah.  No reason to pump that team's defense up at all..   Uh huh.   Sure.    Totally believeable...       Keep hawking that all you want, I'm not buying it.  Especially after having seen PSU play several times this year.    BTW, I notice in the Sagarin rankings, PSU's SOS is 57.   Auburn's is 2.   Tell me again how cupcakes are affecting those other rankings.....   No wait.  I said I was done with this discussion and I am.   So you can keep deluding yourself all you want.   I don't care.

Sagarin's SOS is for the whole team. Again, I was never talking about Penn State the whole football team. I was talking about their defense. You seem to confuse the two routinely.

You might want to actually think about the stats you are referencing before posting them, just to make sure they are actually relevant to the argument at hand. spouting things like 4-4 records and overall strength of schedule means nothing when the discussion was solely only Penn States defense.

[Golfingdad]

Probably Michigan State. I think playing in the conference title game is what will set them apart. It is one extra game to add to the resume. Michigan State is already ahead of them in the rankings.

Good point.  Forgot about that, you're probably right. An extra win against Nebraska is going to give them an edge, especially since they are already a couple of spots ahead.

That brings up another question:  I wonder how much weight the committee will give their own rankings.  Meaning, will they re-evaluate the entire season leading to that point, or will they say "well, we had MSU rated ahead of ND before this week, and they won, so we have to keep them ahead of them this week too."  I hope its the former.

[saevel25]

Good point.  Forgot about that, you're probably right. An extra win against Nebraska is going to give them an edge, especially since they are already a couple of spots ahead.

That brings up another question:  I wonder how much weight the committee will give their own rankings.  Meaning, will they re-evaluate the entire season leading to that point, or will they say "well, we had MSU rated ahead of ND before this week, and they won, so we have to keep them ahead of them this week too."  I hope its the former.

To me, their current rankings are based on the foundation of what the teams have done so far. So I would presume they would just build on that.

It will be interesting to see how much they shuffle the rankings around week by week.

[teamroper60]

Sagarin's SOS is for the whole team. Again, I was never talking about Penn State the whole football team. I was talking about their defense. You seem to confuse the two routinely.

You might want to actually think about the stats you are referencing before posting them, just to make sure they are actually relevant to the argument at hand. spouting things like 4-4 records and overall strength of schedule means nothing when the discussion was solely only Penn States defense.

I gave you stats which clearly showed Auburn's defense had played against far stronger offenses than PSU had faced, which to anyone not trying to make an excuse for a poor showing by their team, clearly shows that PSU's defense is not even close to the caliber of Auburns.  Yet here we are multiple posts later and you still haven't even acknowledged them.   Even after I repeatedly posted them.   Now, I really am done with debating the strength of PSU's defense.   Anybody who has watched PSU play and also seen games from teams outside the B1G, can clearly see PSU is not one of the top ten defenses in the country.   No matter how you skew the stats to make it look like they are.   Period.  Now, you may have the last word on this.  I said I am done and I am.

[teamroper60]

To me, their current rankings are based on the foundation of what the teams have done so far. So I would presume they would just build on that.

It will be interesting to see how much they shuffle the rankings around week by week.

That is nearly verbatim what the chairman of the committee said last week on TV.    He also basically said the B1G was perceived as weak when he said OSU was ranked where they were because of who they had played.   So if the choice is TCU and MSU, I would not want to bet either direction at this point.  Perhaps the committee will change their opinion of the B1G as the season progresses and the top teams in the conference match up.   But then again, if TCU beats KSU, they could easily get an advantage.   Hopefully, tonight's rankings will help clear up their line of thinking a little bit.

[saevel25]

I gave you stats which clearly showed Auburn's defense had played against far stronger offenses than PSU had faced, which to anyone not trying to make an excuse for a poor showing by their team, clearly shows that PSU's defense is not even close to the caliber of Auburns.  Yet here we are multiple posts later and you still haven't even acknowledged them.   Even after I repeatedly posted them.   Now, I really am done with debating the strength of PSU's defense.   Anybody who has watched PSU play and also seen games from teams outside the B1G, can clearly see PSU is not one of the top ten defenses in the country.   No matter how you skew the stats to make it look like they are.   Period.  Now, you may have the last word on this.  I said I am done and I am.

Last Word

That is nearly verbatim what the chairman of the committee said last week on TV.    He also basically said the B1G was perceived as weak when he said OSU was ranked where they were because of who they had played.   So if the choice is TCU and MSU, I would not want to bet either direction at this point.  Perhaps the committee will change their opinion of the B1G as the season progresses and the top teams in the conference match up.   But then again, if TCU beats KSU, they could easily get an advantage.   Hopefully, tonight's rankings will help clear up their line of thinking a little bit.

I think the rankings tonight wont have much shuffling. Probably a lot of sliding up. I think Ole Miss will probably drop to about 9th or 10th. I think Georgia drops to about 18th-20th. Then everyone just moves up to fill the spots. I do think that Alabama jumps up over Oregon to take the 4th spot.

[Golfingdad]

Last Word

Thank goodness!  You guys kept making it harder and harder for me to ignore whatever the heck you were arguing about.  All I know is it had something to do with Penn Sta ... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[saevel25]

Thank goodness!  You guys kept making it harder and harder for me to ignore whatever the heck you were arguing about.  All I know is it had something to do with Penn Sta ... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

It had nothing to do with Penn State

[MS256]

I do think that Alabama jumps up over Oregon to take the 4th spot.

I certainly hope not!!!!!

Don't need it, don't deserve it, and don't want it.

It seemed from the first week's selection that maybe the coaches on the selection board carried extra weight because most TV pundits were claiming Alabama was in the top 4 and some (many actually) thought Alabama was the best team in the country.

Coaches on the committee that are used to breaking down film will see what Joshua Dobbs was able to do against Alabama and ask themselves what would happen against Dak Prescott. Everything Joshua Dobbs can do Dak Prescott can do better.

They will also look at what Arkansas was able to do and ask what will happen against LSU.  Similar teams with similar philosophies but everything Arkansas can do LSU can do better.

If by some chance Alabama can get past LSU and Mississippi State maybe it will be time to think maybe they are pretty good and maybe deserve to be top 4  (but not until then).

[saevel25]

looks like everyone moved up one except Michigan State. Got to love when a team gets jumped because they are on a bye week

[teamroper60]

looks like everyone moved up one except Michigan State. Got to love when a team gets jumped because they are on a bye week

I don't think the bye week is the problem.  I think this goes back to the perception that the the B1G is weak.    I am not saying it is deserved.   I think MSU has a really good team (and yes, a REAL top 10 defense) that deserves to be in the discussion but perception is hurting them.

[MS256]

I don't think the bye week is the problem.  I think this goes back to the perception that the the B1G is weak.    I am not saying it is deserved.   I think MSU has a really good team (and yes, a REAL top 10 defense) that deserves to be in the discussion but perception is hurting them.

I didn't see anything too outrageous or too surprising. I would have preferred to see a few things flopped around (like trading places between Alabama and Michigan State) but they didn't call and ask me my opinion.