Rory McIlroy's First and Second Round Variation

[joekelly]

Watching the Scottish Open and some commentator tells us that over the last year? or so, Rory has shot, on average 68.3 on Thursday but 73.7 on Friday.  A huge variation given Rory's  skill level.  Then the commentator tells us 'there is no cause for this', just some random occurrence.

I cannot accept this 'random' notion of Rory's variation.  Over many rounds, a year in competition, and this trend is cement.  But random, no.  However, the really interesting question is what goes on in Rory's head or body to cause such variation between two close days.

Is he tired on Friday morn, too much party? Parties late into Wednesday night so less anxious but weary on Thursday? Wants to look good to start, then loses focus on Friday?  Once tourney starts, he omits sexual activities, thus is highly distracted on Friday?  Overeats on Thursday night?  Presumably his starts on Thur and Fri alternate between tourneys so some Thurs he starts early morn, but other tourneys he starts noon, which would balance out this source of variation.

Other ideas?

[jbishop15]

It is a bit baffling. I'm not sure what to make of it. I don't think it's party-related, at least. Bad course management? I don't know what stats to look at, but perhaps he's too aggressive?

[Mulligan Jeff]

I would tend to agree there is no random to this, obviously his stats are off on Fridays. There could very well be an underlying cause but without knowing his daily routine or rather Thursday through Friday routine it's only speculation.

[BENtSwing]

He just doesn't have that killer instinct anymore. I believe he wants to win, but just not with the same passion he once had. Too many other things going on in his life.

[Hammer 4]

It was Tripp E. on the golf channel, that showed a pic of Rory's set up on Thurs. compared to Friday. I could see, and Tripp pointed it out that Rory's head was much lower the second day, and that affected his swing. He didn't say what the cause of the lower head was, so it's anyone's guess.

[mvmac]

I think it's just a focus thing. He's excited and ready for the tournament to start and comes out at full steam. Maybe the second round is his "hump" day.

[Zeph]

Has anyone seen stats that compare each round for other players? 5.4 shots is a lot, but maybe one can find a similar pattern in other players, perhaps even in general. Are courses set up more difficult on fridays?

[Righty to Lefty]

It is random....at any given handicap there is a range that every golfer will likely play within on any given day.  You can't say that it is a  trend because his playing field changes from day to day.  We are not talkin about shooting free throws where the parameters are the same from day to day.  Golf is hard and he will be fine because he knows what he is doing.  Any good golfer will tell you that it is hard to go low in consecutive rounds let alone 4 straight rounds. He'll be fine.

[Bear Trader]

This happens to most golfers not just Rory- if you you did a statistical analysis of all golfers you would see the same thing. It just that Rory is now in the spot light after his meteoric rise. You would not have noticed this is if he was say Brad Snedeker.  What really is apparent is that Rory had great run like many golfers have had in short periods i.e Vijay, Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Scott  Kenny Perry e.t.c and is now just like any top 20 golfer. If you look at Adam Scott you would see the same correlation with Rory one good round and then one bad round vice versa. Very few golfers in the history of the game have consistently shot good rounds for long stretches of years. Rory is not one of the nor would he ever be one of them and I have watched his game before he became a pro and seen the same pattern. So stop second guessing and just accept he is playing like any pro out there. He is no Nicklaus, Tiger or Snead not even on Phils level. More like Scott, Donald, Westwood, Stenson level.

[Fourputt]

Speaking of Phil.... now you are talking about a great player who has always shown the ability to spray some big numbers around the leaderboard.  Of course, they are often mixed in with some very good rounds too, and when he gets the mix right, he's in the hunt.

[mvmac]

Rory's second round scoring average might improve after today

[boogielicious]

Rory's second round scoring average might improve after today

It is like how a great round lowers your HC!