Course Management: Approach Shot - Where to aim? Percentage approach

[iacas]

2 hours ago, p1n9183 said:

In general (PGA stats) is better a shot from the bunker 15 yards away (the bunker next to the hole in the picture) average : 2,46 strokes than a shot from the other side of the green int the rough 25 yards way from the ping average : 2,64 strokes.

 

In 2015 (more stats), the median PGA Tour player…

• Got a sand save from 10-20 yards 54% of the time. That's about 2.46 strokes.
• Scrambled from 20-30 yards away about 52% of the time. That's about 2.48 strokes.

I'm not saying your stats are wrong, but they don't jive with the quickie looking I just did.

And, if you regularly play out of PGA Tour quality bunkers, by all means, rate them as less penal than the bunkers 99% of golfers face every day.

And lest it be said again, but both of those numbers are significantly higher than a player putting from even 90 feet away, where they would average about 2.4 strokes.

2 hours ago, p1n9183 said:

But the one´s that are decent from the sand like pro or scratch amateurs benefist from that skill and prefer (based on stats) landing the ball on the sand close to the flag than lading it farther away in the rough.

I contend that most scratch level golfers are still better off in the rough, and that you're presenting a false dichotomy here. The choice is not between a close bunker shot or a long rough shot, but rather between a bunker shot and some closer putts with some balls in the rough versus a bit more balls in the rough, far fewer balls in the bunker, and a whole lot more balls on the putting green.

You can't answer that for everyone, but generally speaking, players should avoid bunkers and give themselves lots of putts.

Buy the book and let me know what you think.

[p1n9183]

37 minutes ago, iacas said:

 

In 2015 (more stats), the median PGA Tour player…

• Got a sand save from 10-20 yards 54% of the time. That's about 2.46 strokes.
• Scrambled from 20-30 yards away about 52% of the time. That's about 2.48 strokes.

I'm not saying your stats are wrong, but they don't jive with the quickie looking I just did.

And, if you regularly play out of PGA Tour quality bunkers, by all means, rate them as less penal than the bunkers 99% of golfers face every day.

And lest it be said again, but both of those numbers are significantly higher than a player putting from even 90 feet away, where they would average about 2.4 strokes.

I contend that most scratch level golfers are still better off in the rough, and that you're presenting a false dichotomy here. The choice is not between a close bunker shot or a long rough shot, but rather between a bunker shot and some closer putts with some balls in the rough versus a bit more balls in the rough, far fewer balls in the bunker, and a whole lot more balls on the putting green.

You can't answer that for everyone, but generally speaking, players should avoid bunkers and give themselves lots of putts.

Buy the book and let me know what you think.

Agreed with everything, but dont undestand why aiming at the flag will leave me with a lot fewer ball in the green if the normal dispersion is bigger than the green width (or dispersion diagonal) ?

Aiming at the middle will leave you (just as an example) 60% ball in the green, 20% rigth in the bunker and 20% left in the rough. Aiming left to avoid bunker will leave you 60% at the green and 40% at the rough. Aiming rigth towards the flag will leave you 60% balls in the green and 40% in the bunker.

So the 3 options leaves you with 60% shots in the green. 

[Coronagolfman]

On 5/12/2016 at 4:20 PM, Coronagolfman said:

Well-spoken.  Sometimes being on the green might leave you in a position where only a Jordan Spieth could expect a two-putt as opposed to being off the green in light rough below the hole where any average player might be able to get down in two 50-60% of the time.

Quote from IACAS: Those situations are highly unlikely (incredibly rare).

On a course with speedy greens, its usually always better to be below the hole (even if a foot or two off the green) than 10 feet or more above the hole.  In such instances, wouldn't most golf instructors try to have their student leave the ball below the hole?

 

 

[iacas]

4 hours ago, p1n9183 said:

Agreed with everything, but dont undestand why aiming at the flag will leave me with a lot fewer ball in the green if the normal dispersion is bigger than the green width (or dispersion diagonal) ?

Aiming at the middle will leave you (just as an example) 60% ball in the green, 20% rigth in the bunker and 20% left in the rough. Aiming left to avoid bunker will leave you 60% at the green and 40% at the rough. Aiming rigth towards the flag will leave you 60% balls in the green and 40% in the bunker.

So the 3 options leaves you with 60% shots in the green. 

That's just making things up. If the pin is back right, you could have almost 3/4 of your Shot Zone missing the green.

And heck, imagine a Shot Zone where 90% of it fits on the green - aiming any direction from the center is only going to reduce that after more than a step or two.