NCAA Football 2021

[dennyjones]

27 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Iowa gone. Double digit loss to an unranked team in your own stadium? They did it in 2018 to OhioSt. Purdue just put the buzz kill on Iowa. Bye Bye top 10 for Iowa!

They were exposed at PSU

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, dennyjones said:

They were exposed at PSU

PSU played at Iowa.

Tough to be a great team today with an offense ranked in the bottom half of football. 

[Vinsk]

23 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

PSU played at Iowa.

Tough to be a great team today with an offense ranked in the bottom half of football. 

Right. Yet they were ranked #2 in the country. The AP is a joke, but it takes a lot of people’s opinions to make those rankings and it shows the flaw. Hell even watching the Iowa vs Perdue game seems like high school compared to OSU/Texas or OU/TCU. Now we just need Cincinnati to get exposed, which will happen when they waltz into the final four. Humiliation to come.

[saevel25]

This is expected points per play, adjusted for home field advantage and opponents played. If you somehow played the average schedule, and score exactly what is expected (based on field position, down and distance, turn overs, etc..) you would have zero. 

It's kind of like strokes gained. If you throw a pick six when you are at your own 5 yard line, you lose less expected points than if you threw a pick six for the opponents 5 yard line. 

1) I am surprised Ohio States defense is in the positive. I'll take it. 
2) Their offense is stupid good. 
3) Georgia's defense is stupid good. 
4) Cincinnati is not terrible

The thing this doesn't take into account is talent and matchups. What ever the equation gives you is saying Cinci isn't that far behind Alabama in terms of production in 2021 that is adjusted for opponents. Team v Team matchups might be a different story. 

 

[WilliamB]

Is the Big 10 overrated?

[klineka]

1 minute ago, WilliamB said:

Is the Big 10 overrated?

Overrated compared to what?

Where do you rate the conference as a whole?

I think a very strong case can be made that they're the 2nd strongest conference in the country.

[Bucki1968]

19 hours ago, klineka said:

Overrated compared to what?

Where do you rate the conference as a whole?

I think a very strong case can be made that they're the 2nd strongest conference in the country.

We'll have a pretty good idea in the next few weeks. I kinda watch football a little differently because when I watch it, I watch it with coaching buddies from various levels of football (high school, college, and even a couple NFL guys). It's interesting to hear the different viewpoints from the different coaches. I'm not sure the big ten is overrated this year, but I do think a couple of the teams who are looking good right now are about to be exposed. They are winning against teams who either are not very good or they find a way to beat themselves. I'm not going to name names because I'm a Buckeye and don't want to be called a "homer" but I will say this, Ohio State is going to have to beat themselves to lose another game. No one on the schedule is better from a "bigger, stronger, faster" standpoint. Another interesting thing that was pointed out to me in the past couple weeks that I did not think of is "who is getting better every week and who is not really improving".  That is the consensus opinion of the guys I hang with. Of course, like coaches always say, "that's why they play the game".

[saevel25]

20 hours ago, WilliamB said:

Is the Big 10 overrated?

Nope

SEC > Big10 > Big12 > Pac12 or ACC 

I think most people would accept this order of how good the conferences are. 

Iowa was the only overrated team. 

Nebraska is highly underrated. 3 of their 4 losses are to teams in the top 15, and all by 7 points or less.

 

[klineka]

1 minute ago, saevel25 said:

SEC > Big10 > Big12 > Pac12 or ACC 

Exactly how I'd rank them too.

[Vinsk]

SEC>Big12>B1G>PAC12>ACC

[Vinsk]

SEC>Big12>B1G>PAC12>ACC

/assets/BobbyDoddStadium-320d3ebcf15aed7a6fa805507edb6ab0faf15288043205bba30c5b4b21afd2a6.jpg

Big 12 vs Other Conferences

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Complete list of the Big 12's inter-conference football games since 1998 (the BCS and playoff eras).

 

[klineka]

30 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

SEC>Big12>B1G>PAC12>ACC

21 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

SEC>Big12>B1G>PAC12>ACC

/assets/BobbyDoddStadium-320d3ebcf15aed7a6fa805507edb6ab0faf15288043205bba30c5b4b21afd2a6.jpg

Big 12 vs Other Conferences

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Complete list of the Big 12's inter-conference football games since 1998 (the BCS and playoff eras).

 

In my mind, I thought that @WilliamB was talking in reference to just this season specifically, which is what I based my response(s) on.

IMO it's hard to say that the Big 12 is better this season than the Big 10. I'm not seeing the facts that back that claim up.

• Big 10 is 2-1 thus far in head to head
• Big 10 has 6 ranked teams in the top 25 of the AP poll with 4 being ranked in the top 10
• Big 12 has 3 ranked teams in the top 25 of the AP poll with 2 being ranked in the top 10
• If you use Teamrankings.com which is what @saevel25 used earlier in this thread then:
  • Big 10 has 6 in the top 25 and 8 in the top 35 with 4 in the top 10 and 2 higher than any Big 12 team
  • Big 12 has 4 in the top 25 and 6 in the top 35 with 1 in the top 10 and 0 in the top 5

[Vinsk]

2 minutes ago, klineka said:

In my mind, I thought that @WilliamB was talking in reference to just this season specifically, which is what I based my response(s) on.

IMO it's hard to say that the Big 12 is better this season than the Big 10. I'm not seeing the facts that back that claim up.

• Big 10 is 2-1 thus far in head to head
• Big 10 has 6 ranked teams in the top 25 of the AP poll with 4 being ranked in the top 10
• Big 12 has 3 ranked teams in the top 25 of the AP poll with 2 being ranked in the top 10
• If you use Teamrankings.com which is what @saevel25 used earlier in this thread then:
  • Big 10 has 6 in the top 25 and 8 in the top 35 with 4 in the top 10 and 2 higher than any Big 12 team
  • Big 12 has 4 in the top 25 and 6 in the top 35 with 1 in the top 10 and 0 in the top 5

This season I can’t say the Big12 is better either. OU/OSU I believe are the only undefeated in the 12. OhioSt/MI/MSU in the 10. What would be a great series would be 

OU vs OhioSt

OSU vs MI

Texas vs MSU

PSU vs Baylor 

[saevel25]

With Bill Connelly's SP+ Rankings... Back on Sept. 8th, he put in the 5 year averages for the conferences...

Looking at the current column, the B12 is right behind the B10, who both are way behind the SEC. The SEC always has that one or two team that gets ranked high. The bottom half of the SEC is garbage just like every other conference. 

Here is the breakdown by divisions for this seasons, like two weeks ago...

The B12 is not there because they don't have divisions. Bill posed they would be equal to the SEC East. 
At the time, maybe changed, though MSU, PSU, OSU, and MICH are all one loss teams. 

B10 East, SEC West, ACC, B12 & SEC East, B10 West. 

Maybe the ACC is better this year overall, but have no elite teams. Lots of good to slightly good teams. The Pac12 is a mess.
 

[saevel25]

Well, with their QB back, Penn State decided to lay an egg. Though, with the new college football overtime rules (going to 2-pt conversions after the 3rd OT), they went to 9 OT!!!! There was a point that neither team converted on a 2-pt conversion a combined 8 times in a row! No one could get 3-yards! I am more upset that this devalues Penn State when Ohio State probably trounces them. 

[saevel25]

https://twitter.com/TonyGerdeman/status/1452687088541913090?s=20

CJ Shroud being OSU starting QB. 

[Vinsk]

It’s a simple fact that OhioSt hasn’t beaten a ranked team yet. B1G fans really like to boost up their cupcakes. Let’s see how their stats compare when they play a ranked team.

[saevel25]

49 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

It’s a simple fact that OhioSt hasn’t beaten a ranked team yet. B1G fans really like to boost up their cupcakes. Let’s see how their stats compare when they play a ranked team.

I don't care about rankings. AP pole is garbage. 

I think i posted this above, it is tough to put up elite numbers like what Ohio State is doing on offense. Like, it is very hard what Georgia is doing on defense.  Like, holding a team to under 3 yards per carry is stupid hard. You have to think, if the O-line just holds their spot, the RB gets up to speed, you think he could get low and lunge forward for 3 yards. This is how Army/Navy would just have their 24-play drive that takes up an entire quarter. To not overthrow wide open people, to convert on 58% of 3-down, to not fumble, to not throw INT's. That is why the expected spread is 15-21 points for OSU against Maryland, Rutgers, and Indiana. It's tough to do what they did. If it was expected, the Vegas Line would be a 35-40 points spread.