Thoughts on MLB's New ABS System

[saevel25]

I find this new ABS system interesting on its potential impact on the game of baseball from the pitching perspective. 

The ABS system is projecting a 2D plane at the middle of the plate, instead of having the strike zone be a 3D box (really the dimension of the plate, but no pitcher is nicking that back triangle of the plate). 

MLB to test automated ball-strike challenge system during spring games

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Umpires first began calling both balls and strikes way back in 1864, and baseballers have been arguing about those calls ever since. Strike-zone judgment has been the subject of some untold number of verbal (and, yes...

I was thinking, this should have a big impact on pitchers who throw breaking balls. The breaking ball now has to be thrown higher up in the strike zone to catch the bottom of the new 2D zone. If the 2D zone is about the correct dimension of the previous strike zone, that 2D zone would be at the front of the plate. Now it is 8.5" back. So, the same breaking ball has to be thrown much higher to hit the new position of that low part of the plate. If the ball curves dramatically towards the end of the pitch, where the hitter has to hit the curveball (typically 8 inches in front of the plate), then the curve ball is maybe like 6 inches higher than normal? Just throwing out a number. I think that turns what use to be an at the knee strike into a something a hitter would crush. 

Maybe the opposite is true, that breaking balls at the top of the zone might be more in play. It might look more that the ball is at the shoulders and hit the top of the plate. Maybe pitches who can delay the vertical break of the ball till much later might still see the same success since that delay allows them to keep the ball lower. I still think it will elevate any breaking ball pitch thrown low to clip that bottom of the strike zone. 

 

[iacas]

7 hours ago, saevel25 said:

The ABS system is projecting a 2D plane at the middle of the plate, instead of having the strike zone be a 3D box (really the dimension of the plate, but no pitcher is nicking that back triangle of the plate).

Yes, I've wondered the same thing about breaking pitches, whether they're sinking or whether they're curving horizontally. If you consider that the plate is a rectangular prism (ignoring the back triangle), a ball could break in over the back corner or clip the front corner before continuing to curve farther away from the strike zone. Both pitches could miss the middle of the plate "planar" (2D) rectangle.

7 hours ago, saevel25 said:

If the ball curves dramatically towards the end of the pitch, where the hitter has to hit the curveball (typically 8 inches in front of the plate), then the curve ball is maybe like 6 inches higher than normal?

I don't think it's anywhere near 6". A ball would have to be moving at a 35° angle to drop 6" over 8.5". That feels like an awfully steep angle. A quick search says a breaking ball moves only 6-12" vertically, and I'm not even sure if that's including the normal drop from gravity.

Then of course I remembered this:

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Statcast Pitch Movement Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com

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Baseball Savant

6" over 8.5" would be a TON. Basically unheard of. Unless it's an eephus pitch. 😉 

7 hours ago, saevel25 said:

Maybe the opposite is true, that breaking balls at the top of the zone might be more in play.

No, either way, it shrinks the zone. Whether a ball clips the front of the plate before falling out, or clips the back top of the plate as it drops… it's gonna miss the middle plane of the plate.

ABS has given us things like this, though, which are great:

[saevel25]

11 minutes ago, iacas said:

ABS has given us things like this, though, which are great:

I saw that. That was awesome. 

[boogielicious]

10 hours ago, iacas said:

ABS has given us things like this, though, which are great:

Was the ump calling those strikes or was the system? They were clearly balls. I haven’t watched a game yet.

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, boogielicious said:

Was the ump calling those strikes or was the system? They were clearly balls. I haven’t watched a game yet.

Ump calls balls and strikes, ABS is a review system. 

[boogielicious]

26 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Ump calls balls and strikes, ABS is a review system. 

It’s just going to make the umps look terrible. They should have gone all the way. The home plate ump is not in a good enough position to call low balls and strikes. He’s blocked out by the catcher. Mariano Rivera exploited that his whole career which was brilliant on his part.

[saevel25]

18 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

It’s just going to make the umps look terrible. They should have gone all the way. The home plate ump is not in a good enough position to call low balls and strikes. He’s blocked out by the catcher. Mariano Rivera exploited that his whole career which was brilliant on his part.

Yep. Well at least the bad umpires really. I think overturns are at 50/50 right now, with catchers being the most accurate. 

I don't think they could go all the way without dealing with an umpire strike. They are a union after all. 

I get that, and the part of the gaming the system is out now. I have mixed feelings about it. In the end, with how bad some umpires have gotten, it's really their own fault for not living up to a better standard. 

 

[iacas]

44 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

It’s just going to make the umps look terrible. They should have gone all the way.

Full ABS is too slow.

17 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I don't think they could go all the way without dealing with an umpire strike. They are a union after all.

That's another part of it.

[saevel25]

26 minutes ago, iacas said:

Full ABS is too slow.

Doing a bit of googling, it takes like 15 seconds to determine a ball or strike. I am sure they are running it at every pitch to accelerate the potential challenge. Especially since they have to create a graphic display for TV and the stadium big screen.

Imagine a pitch thrown, that takes under half a second to reach home plate. Then wait 15 seconds for a call to be made. That would kill the watchability of the game. 

[Elmer]

Last night in Seattle, the 4 consecutive NY Yankee's batters  challenged low pitches. 
They won all 4 challenges.
this lead the manager of the NY Yankees Aaron Boone to bark at the home plate umpire to "get your calls right".

This obviously started to iratate the ump.

Is Angel Hernandez still umping? If so, that is not going to go well!

[saevel25]

22 minutes ago, Elmer said:

this lead the manager of the NY Yankees Aaron Boone to bark at the home plate umpire to "get your calls right".

The ump should have thrown him out. They have ABS now, stop bitching. 🤣

One thing I don't like about the ABS, it is more of a visual thing. The accuracy for the ABS system is like 0.2". They are overturning if the ball is within that margin of error. I wouldn't mind them saying anything with in +/- 0.2" of the strike zone is kept as called. they should show this buffer zone. 

[SoCalHacker]

I like it...