Cutoff For Players Who Have a Chance

[dagolfer18]

I’ll explain the title. In the final round of a major, or any tournament for that matter, what do y’all think is the maximum number of strokes a player can trail by and still say they have a chance? My dad and I were discussing this earlier.

I told him that I thought three strokes behind is the furthest you can be and still have a realistic chance. Four or five behind means you still have a chance, but you need to go low in the final round. Six is on the outside looking in, and more than that is, realistically, out of it, although I’ve heard final round comeback stories from as far back as ten strokes.

So what do y’all think about this? I’ll be interested to hear your thoughts. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by dagolfer18

[saevel25]

4 hours ago, dagolfer18 said:

what do y’all think is the maximum number of strokes a player can trail by and still say they have a chance? My dad and I were discussing this earlier.

Let’s assume the top 5-ish shoot a few over par. Then I could think something like a 62-63. So probably 9-12 back I can see happening. 

[Missouri Swede]

4 hours ago, dagolfer18 said:

I’ll explain the title. In the final round of a major, or any tournament for that matter, what do y’all think is the maximum number of strokes a player can trail by and still say they have a chance? My dad and I were discussing this earlier.

I told him that I thought three strokes behind is the furthest you can be and still have a realistic chance. Four or five behind means you still have a chance, but you need to go low in the final round. Six is on the outside looking in, and more than that is, realistically, out of it, although I’ve heard final round comeback stories from as far back as ten strokes.

So what do y’all think about this? I’ll be interested to hear your thoughts. 

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[StuM]

Part of the ability to come back from behind will depend not just on how many strokes behind but how many players are ahead of the player.  For example, if a golfer is 5 back and in solo 2nd all they need is to shoot 4 under and the leader to drop 1 and they are in a playoff (Unless they get passed from behind).  That is very possible.

However, if they are 5 back and there are 10 ahead of them they may shoot the 4 under and the leader may drop 1 but they still need to outpace the other 9 players which makes the comeback harder.

I think that is part of why the recent PGA was so good to watch for me.  Many players within striking distance in the final round.

[turtleback]

If only there were decades of tournament data that could provide statistical clarity to the question.