NCAA Football 2021

[WilliamB]

2 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

3-4 spots

sounds about right

[saevel25]

Thoughts on the OSU v PSU game. 

1. PSU plays OSU tough. PSU has lost to OSU the last 5 times by an average of 7 points. 
2. OSU really shot itself in the foot with some STRANGE penalties. A WR getting a false start. A RB getting false start on a 4-1 at the goal line, forcing a FG. Two snap infractions on the center. Just some strange penalties. 
3. PSU Defense is very good. 
4. OSU was 1-4 in the redone, with 1-TD and 3-FG. Their average field goal attempt was like 27 yards, so inside the 10 yard line. If they get two TD's instead of two FG, that is 8 more points, and it is a 17-point win. 
5. CJ Shroud threw for 9+ yards per attempt, 65% passing, 1-TD, and 0 INTS. The guy played a heck of a game. As the game went along, he adjusted to their defense. The times he would climb the pocket, and hit a WR will be great tape for NFL scouts. He was late on a few throws that caused the PSU defenders to break up the pass, but there were some he hit that were impressive. 

OSU didn't capitalize on their red zone attempts, they shot themselves in the foot with strange penalties, their defense struggled to get off the field on third down, and they still put up over 30 points and won the game. Usually, when an opposing team goes 11-16 on third down you would expect them to run you out of the stadium. So, with PSU A+ game, and with OSU's C game, we won by 9. I'll take that as a huge positive. 

The thing that bothers me, is when OSU blitzes they tend to play soft coverage or a zone behind it. I am OK with zone coverage when you come downhill hard at the WR. They didn't react to the QB and WR at all, and allowed way to many easy catches. I like the aggressive defense from the front 7. Lots of havoc caused. It caused a defensive TD, and a timely INT. Good there. The linebackers dropping back into zone defense needs to be way more aggressive. Maybe it was more analysis paralysis going on with switching from a Cover-1/3 scheme to a Cover-2 man under and zone blitz scheme that finally showed up against a team with some talent.

OSU made in game adjustments. After PSU first actual drive. I disregard the first drives for each that both ended in fumbles. It was like, "Can we just redo the start of the game". OSU held PSU to 2 Punts, 1 turn over on downs, and the fumble return for a TD for the 1st half. I feel like the pieces are there, just got to be more aggressive. 

[Vinsk]

38 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Thoughts on the OSU v PSU game. 

1. PSU plays OSU tough. PSU has lost to OSU the last 5 times by an average of 7 points. 
2. OSU really shot itself in the foot with some STRANGE penalties. A WR getting a false start. A RB getting false start on a 4-1 at the goal line, forcing a FG. Two snap infractions on the center. Just some strange penalties. 
3. PSU Defense is very good. 
4. OSU was 1-4 in the redone, with 1-TD and 3-FG. Their average field goal attempt was like 27 yards, so inside the 10 yard line. If they get two TD's instead of two FG, that is 8 more points, and it is a 17-point win. 
5. CJ Shroud threw for 9+ yards per attempt, 65% passing, 1-TD, and 0 INTS. The guy played a heck of a game. As the game went along, he adjusted to their defense. The times he would climb the pocket, and hit a WR will be great tape for NFL scouts. He was late on a few throws that caused the PSU defenders to break up the pass, but there were some he hit that were impressive. 

OSU didn't capitalize on their red zone attempts, they shot themselves in the foot with strange penalties, their defense struggled to get off the field on third down, and they still put up over 30 points and won the game. Usually, when an opposing team goes 11-16 on third down you would expect them to run you out of the stadium. So, with PSU A+ game, and with OSU's C game, we won by 9. I'll take that as a huge positive. 

The thing that bothers me, is when OSU blitzes they tend to play soft coverage or a zone behind it. I am OK with zone coverage when you come downhill hard at the WR. They didn't react to the QB and WR at all, and allowed way to many easy catches. I like the aggressive defense from the front 7. Lots of havoc caused. It caused a defensive TD, and a timely INT. Good there. The linebackers dropping back into zone defense needs to be way more aggressive. Maybe it was more analysis paralysis going on with switching from a Cover-1/3 scheme to a Cover-2 man under and zone blitz scheme that finally showed up against a team with some talent.

OSU made in game adjustments. After PSU first actual drive. I disregard the first drives for each that both ended in fumbles. It was like, "Can we just redo the start of the game". OSU held PSU to 2 Punts, 1 turn over on downs, and the fumble return for a TD for the 1st half. I feel like the pieces are there, just got to be more aggressive. 

Totally agree. I was really surprised with the poor red zone performance from OSU. And yeah those penalties are rare ones. My eye test just can’t help but feel both OU and OSU should be ranked above Cincinnati. Alabama’s win over Tennessee ( which is still being hyped) didn’t impress me as much as the dopey AP polls like to say. But definitely have to agree that OSU C game won against a PSU A game. 

[HankBlue]

7 hours ago, Vinsk said:

I’m not sure I agree with Alabama getting less damage for losing against an unranked team ( at the time) than OU is for having a poor first half against KU. Cincinnati struggled against Navy and Tulane yet no worries, they won. Yeah, so did OU. 

Alabama suffered "less damage" because they're Alabama.

[saevel25]

SP+ Resume Rankings 
*Taking SP+ Rankings, and estimating the scoring margin a top 5 team would have versus that teams schedule, then subtracting that teams actual scoring margin. Example, if the average top-5 team would have a scoring margin of 14 versus team A's schedule, and team A produced a scoring margin of 17, they have a +3.0. It shows teams that have been skirting by. If you are a team that has been playing tight games versus a weak schedule, then your resume will be bad. Of course, losses to a team that wasn't near you in SP+ will really hurt your resume score. 

There have been only 3 teams that have a positive SP+ Resume, meaning they have done better against their schedule than what another top-5 team would be expected to do. 

Michigan has been doing what exactly a top 5 team would do against their schedule. 

OU maybe should not be ranked in the top 5? They have average 9 points less per game than what another top-5 team would do with that schedule. 

[HankBlue]

3 hours ago, saevel25 said:

SP+ Resume Rankings 
*Taking SP+ Rankings, and estimating the scoring margin a top 5 team would have versus that teams schedule, then subtracting that teams actual scoring margin. Example, if the average top-5 team would have a scoring margin of 14 versus team A's schedule, and team A produced a scoring margin of 17, they have a +3.0. It shows teams that have been skirting by. If you are a team that has been playing tight games versus a weak schedule, then your resume will be bad. Of course, losses to a team that wasn't near you in SP+ will really hurt your resume score. 

There have been only 3 teams that have a positive SP+ Resume, meaning they have done better against their schedule than what another top-5 team would be expected to do. 

Michigan has been doing what exactly a top 5 team would do against their schedule. 

OU maybe should not be ranked in the top 5? They have average 9 points less per game than what another top-5 team would do with that schedule. 

Michigan is, clearly, overrated. 

[klineka]

Just now, HankBlue said:

Michigan is, clearly, overrated. 

Based on what? Please start using facts to back up your claims. This is getting pretty old man.

The stat that @saevel25 posted (which you quoted) indicates otherwise. If anything, it indicates that they're actually underrated in the AP poll and they likely should be a few spots higher than 9th

[Vinsk]

43 minutes ago, HankBlue said:

Michigan is, clearly, overrated. 

Cincinnati is more likely, not Michigan.

[saevel25]

Difference in SP+ Resume and AP Polls (Negative is underrated in AP Poles, Positive is overrated in AP Polls)

Georgia: Even
Cincinnati: +4
Alabama: Even
Oklahoma: +11 
Ohio State: -3
MSU: +1
ND: +3
Penn State: -15 
Wake Forest: +3
Michigan: -6
Auburn: Even
Ole Miss: -6
Iowa: -3
Pitt: -19 
NC State: -12

There are a handful of teams who are not in the top 15 in SP+ Resume who are in the top 15 of the AP Polls. Just to say, highly overrated. 

Most overrated team... Oklahoma at +11... Beat Tulane by 5!, Beat Nebraska by 7 (though Nebraska is not terrible), Beat WV by 3, Beat K.State by 6, Was getting blown out by Texas and won by 7. Just getting by teams ranked 93rd, 24th, 48th, 38th, and 27th. They were telling the world that they were only 6 points better than the 46th team in the country. 

Most underrated team.... The poor PA teams getting no love, lol. PSU lost to Iowa (only because their QB got hurt). Lost to Illinois (only because their QB was still hurt), and lost by 9 to Ohio State. 

 

[Vinsk]

37 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Difference in SP+ Resume and AP Polls (Negative is underrated in AP Poles, Positive is overrated in AP Polls)

Georgia: Even
Cincinnati: +4
Alabama: Even
Oklahoma: +11 
Ohio State: -3
MSU: +1
ND: +3
Penn State: -15 
Wake Forest: +3
Michigan: -6
Auburn: Even
Ole Miss: -6
Iowa: -3
Pitt: -19 
NC State: -12

There are a handful of teams who are not in the top 15 in SP+ Resume who are in the top 15 of the AP Polls. Just to say, highly overrated. 

Most overrated team... Oklahoma at +11... Beat Tulane by 5!, Beat Nebraska by 7 (though Nebraska is not terrible), Beat WV by 3, Beat K.State by 6, Was getting blown out by Texas and won by 7. Just getting by teams ranked 93rd, 24th, 48th, 38th, and 27th. They were telling the world that they were only 6 points better than the 46th team in the country. 

Most underrated team.... The poor PA teams getting no love, lol. PSU lost to Iowa (only because their QB got hurt). Lost to Illinois (only because their QB was still hurt), and lost by 9 to Ohio State. 

 

Well, you’re kind of disregarding the QB situation with OU. It’s obvious CW is the much better QB. All the games you mentioned were under Rattler. In the way you’ve speculated ‘ how a team would play against ‘x’ team’ we can also speculate OU would’ve won those games appropriately with CW as QB. After all, it was once CW came in against TX that they won.
 

What has Cincinnati done that would give anyone the sense that they would even have a chance against Ala, Georgia, OU or OSU? It’s a wasted spot. Cincinnati has nothing to do to stay where they are. SMU? Really? Who ever plays Cincinnati, shall they remain in the top four, will get a bye to the CFP.

[saevel25]

Just now, Vinsk said:

Well, you’re kind of disregarding the QB situation with OU. It’s obvious CW is the much better QB. All the games you mentioned were under Rattler. In the way you’ve speculated ‘ how a team would play against ‘x’ team’ we can also speculate OU would’ve won those games appropriately with CW as QB. After all, it was once CW came in against TX that they won.

Resume is just how well you did compared to an average top-5 team would. Sorry to say, then the HC messed up picking the QB then. Later in the season, with college football playoffs, the QB change matters more. 

Compared to how other teams have performed, OU is overrated. Maybe not that much overrated now, but I don't think they are top 5 YET. 

CW is doing well versus the 60th ranked team, 123rd ranked team, and the 65th ranked team. With a scoring margin of 21. They improved their scoring margin by 14 points with their new QB. 

3 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

What has Cincinnati done that would give anyone the sense that they would even have a chance against Ala, Georgia, OU or OSU? It’s a wasted spot. Cincinnati has nothing to do to stay where they are. SMU? Really? Who ever plays Cincinnati, shall they remain in the top four, will get a bye to the CFP.

That isn't the point of what I posted. It is just comparing a metric measurement versus opinions of the AP polls. By that, Cinci is overrated. The metrics say that a top 5 team would perform only 1.6 points per game better. 

If you want me to rank it by who I think can be whom.

Oh. State = Georgia > Alabama > MSU> Mich. > OU > Penn State > Cincy = Texas A&M = Florida 

 

[Vinsk]

Georgia-Alabama-MSU-Cincinnati unfortunately. MSU beating MI is better than any win from OSU and they’re undefeated. OSU lost at home. That’s a huge blow. I know you love to put huge value on whipping up on cupcakes but the committee looks beyond that. PSU wasn’t a great win. It was mediocre but not negative. Poor red zone performance and CJ Stroud was lukewarm. Tulsa was a poor showing too. Huge games coming for OSU with MI and MSU. OSU obviously has a high ranking offense and defense, but they’re Jekyl and Hyde. They’ll need to show up for both those games or it’s over for them.

[klineka]

7 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Georgia-Alabama-MSU-Cincinnati unfortunately. MSU beating MI is better than any win from OSU and they’re undefeated. OSU lost at home. That’s a huge blow. I know you love to put huge value on whipping up on cupcakes but the committee looks beyond that. PSU wasn’t a great win. It was mediocre but not negative. Poor red zone performance and CJ Stroud was lukewarm. Tulsa was a poor showing too. Huge games coming for OSU with MI and MSU. OSU obviously has a high ranking offense and defense, but they’re Jekyl and Hyde. They’ll need to show up for both those games or it’s over for them.

The one I don't really understand (not just from you but from a lot of people in general right now) is Alabama being ranked 2nd and/or higher than MSU, and Alabama being ranked multiple spots higher than OSU.

Using the AP Poll for rankings, Alabama has a loss to a then unranked (but currently ranked) Texas A & M team, and a top 25 win against Ole Miss.

MSU is undefeated, beat a common opponent (Miami FL) by similar margins (44-13 for Bama and 38-17 for MSU), and have a top 10 win. @Vinsk You said that MSU beating MI is better than any win from OSU and they're undefeated, the same sentence should apply when comparing MSU and Alabama, right? 

OSU has the loss at home, granted it was to a top 10 team not an unranked team, and a top 25 win against Penn State, and has arguably been slightly more dominant in the rest of their games compared to Alabama.

Alabama has been a little more dominant in a few of their wins than MSU, but a few of their wins were against really really bad teams like Mercer (FCS school) and Southern Mississippi (1-7) while squeaking out a win against unranked Florida.

OSU is also (barely) ranked higher in the SP+ resume metric that @saevel25 posted yesterday, and OSU is 3.1 points ahead of Bama in the regular SP+ ranking.

I guess I'm just not seeing the facts that support Bama being at 3 while MSU and OSU are at 5 and 6, but then again maybe that's why you guys have been saying the AP Poll is garbage 

I am very interested to see how the playoff committee ranks these teams tonight, although in the end the rankings over these first few weeks won't really matter that much for Bama, OSU, MSU, and even Michigan, since they each would have to win out in the regular season plus win their conference championship in order to make the playoffs.

[saevel25]

8 hours ago, Vinsk said:

I know you love to put huge value on whipping up on cupcakes but the committee looks beyond that. PSU wasn’t a great win. It was mediocre but not negative.

I ask this question. What would Georgia do against Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers? Probably win by 30+. Which OSU did. You got to give credit for blowing a team out just like it would be damning to do what OU did and just skirt past really bad teams. 

8 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Poor red zone performance and CJ Stroud was lukewarm. Tulsa was a poor showing too. Huge games coming for OSU with MI and MSU. OSU obviously has a high ranking offense and defense, but they’re Jekyl and Hyde. They’ll need to show up for both those games or it’s over for them.

Yep, RZ area was an issue. Though, it can get tough as the field compresses. That’s why you see Day take shots at the end zone when they are at the 40-30 yard line area. You can still stretch the field.

I would say shroud was lukewarm. Passed for 65%, 300+ yards with over 9 yards per attempt. He almost doubled what PSU allows per attempt and had a better passing rating than what they allow during the year. He also did what very good QB’s do, adapt to what the defense is doing. He got better as the game went along. Did he miss one big throw, yea. He admits that he thought the WR would settle in the void of the zone defense and said that was the wrong read. It happens. Tom Brady doesn’t hit every throw. 

 

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, klineka said:

MSU beating MI is better than any win from OSU and they're undefeated, the same sentence should apply when comparing MSU and Alabama, right? 

Yeah that’s a good point. I think that’s where the possibly ‘stereotyped eye test’ comes into play. “MSU better than Alabama? No way.” And that’s not fair but I think that’s what’s going on. Just like I know OSU lost to Oregon. If they played this Saturday I’d bet OSU wins by at least 7 100% confidently.

I admit my opinions are heavily formed from eye test and having played football. 
It’s like watching Simone Biles vs ‘X.’ Even if X performs a perfect floor routine …X just won’t look as explosive or powerful as Simone despite having an error free performance. This is what I get when I watch Cincinnati play or Alabama or even OU when they show up.

Cincinnati beat ND on the road. Yeah. And Odell Beckham made a great catch with the Giants but is actually a poor receiver and has been living off that one great catch. He sucks.

[saevel25]

Is 12 team playoff enough teams? 

A 12-Team College Football Playoff Would Be Big Enough … 90 Percent Of The Time | FiveThirtyEight

---

How how many teams should make the College Football Playoff?

If you go from 12 to 16, you jump from 91% to about 95%. 

I say 12 is good number, and I wouldn't mind 8 teams. I think 16 teams is to many. If you are right 91% of the time, that is 1 team in 10 years is the best team that doesn't make the playoff. I am OK with that. 

Some comments on the B10 officiating... There were a few that PSU can complain about as well. I just only follow OSU stuff mostly on twitter. This is just me complaining in general about the B10 refs. They suck. There were two flags, for late hits. Where the defender hit the guy like 1/2-sec after their knee hit. It was just stupid. 

Here is the one that I had a huge issue with in OSU v PSU... I didn't know that tackling a blitzing LB  wasn't holding?

 

and another blatant holding...

Looks like there was blatant holding calls in the MU v MSU game...

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by saevel25

[Vinsk]

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

I say 12 is good number, and I wouldn't mind 8 teams. I think 16 teams is to many. If you are right 91% of the time, that is 1 team in 10 years is the best team that doesn't make the playoff. I am OK with that. 

 

Totally agree.

[Vinsk]

3 hours ago, saevel25 said:

I didn't know that tackling a blitzing LB  wasn't holding?

I can only assume the ref thought the LB fell into the FB. This was obvious a tackle to me and should’ve been called.