NCAA Football 2021

[Vinsk]

3 hours ago, saevel25 said:

I don't care about rankings. AP pole is garbage. 

I think i posted this above, it is tough to put up elite numbers like what Ohio State is doing on offense. Like, it is very hard what Georgia is doing on defense.  Like, holding a team to under 3 yards per carry is stupid hard. You have to think, if the O-line just holds their spot, the RB gets up to speed, you think he could get low and lunge forward for 3 yards. This is how Army/Navy would just have their 24-play drive that takes up an entire quarter. To not overthrow wide open people, to convert on 58% of 3-down, to not fumble, to not throw INT's. That is why the expected spread is 15-21 points for OSU against Maryland, Rutgers, and Indiana. It's tough to do what they did. If it was expected, the Vegas Line would be a 35-40 points spread. 

You’re doing the classic B1G argument Matt. Stop trying to say beating unranked teams by a lot is more credible than beating ranked teams even if by one score. You’re way to absorbed in numbers and disregarding what’s actually happening out there. You’re right about the AP poll. But nobody wants to play tough games week after week as opposed to unranked, unmatched opponents. I don’t care how much OhioSt bests Rutgers by, or NW or Maryland. They’re unmatched teams for OhioSt. Oregon beat OhioSt. OhioSt lost. Period. I don’t care what the numbers show. They lost. Oh! But OhioSt destroyed Rutgers, struggled against Tulsa, destroyed Maryland so let’s rank them above Oregon? Again, numbers against flops are meaningless. Let’s see how they do when they finally play a ranked team, the steadily fading PSU.

[saevel25]

3 hours ago, Vinsk said:

You’re doing the classic B1G argument Matt. Stop trying to say beating unranked teams by a lot is more credible than beating ranked teams even if by one score.

Depends on the ranked team, and also by what ranking you are talking about. 

Is there much difference between the 30th best team and 25th best team? Well, if one team beats the other, they suddenly get a bump because that 25th team is now ranked! By saying, "How many ranked teams did you beat." It disregards that there isn't much difference between the 25th to maybe 40th team in the country. Sometimes, teams are grossly misranked in the AP poles. 

3 hours ago, Vinsk said:

I don’t care how much OhioSt bests Rutgers by, or NW or Maryland. They’re unmatched teams for OhioSt.

You should. 

I posted it before, the odds of having a scoring margin above 40 is not easy to do, and of all the games played it doesn't happen that often. Credit needs to be given for that. 

What is more impressive, OSU beating Maryland by 40+ or OU beating Kansas State by 6? Guess what, by metrics, Kansas State and Maryland are basically the same team. It would be a pick'em game if KSU played Maryland. The question then becomes, what the heck was OU doing! When comparing OSU versus OU, that becomes a comparison point. Against, what would be similar opponents on paper, OSU won by 40+, and OU won by 6. 

3 hours ago, Vinsk said:

OhioSt lost. Period. I don’t care what the numbers show. They lost. Oh! But OhioSt destroyed Rutgers, struggled against Tulsa, destroyed Maryland so let’s rank them above Oregon? Again, numbers against flops are meaningless. Let’s see how they do when they finally play a ranked team, the steadily fading PSU.

Yep they did. Yes I have them ranked above Oregon. Oregon has not done their job by winning out, and by struggling with their weak schedule. For all intense and purposes, OSU has played just a slightly harder schedule than Oregon. Oregon has average 7.6 scoring margin against their opponents. OSU has averaged scoring margin of 30. 

For those who like AP polls, coaches polls...

Coaches and AP polls have Oregon below Ohio State. Most people can understand that head to head matchups are not the final say when looking at which teams are actually better than others. It just meant they were better that day. 

You make it sounds like the best teams in the country don't play cupcakes on their schedule. Alabama has played 2 non-power 5 teams already. They basically take 4 bye weeks every season. 

 

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

What is more impressive, OSU beating Maryland by 40+ or OU beating Kansas State by 6?

KSU isn’t a great team. Which is more impressive: Oregon beating OhioSt quite soundly or OSU beating Maryland by 40?

Edited October 27, 2021 by Vinsk

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

KSU isn’t a great team. Which is more impressive: Oregon beating OhioSt quite soundly or OSU beating Maryland by 40?

7 points isn’t quit soundly. They had to hang on for dear life.

I would say for Oregon, to beat that version of OSU, not as impressive as OSU winning by 40 over Maryland. Out of that win, Oregon has regressed as a team. Week by week their performances in games have not been good. Right now, most metrics have them maybe 7-10 point favorite over Maryland. OSU would be favored by 14-17 over Oregon today.

it’s just because Oregon has only beaten their opponents by a scoring margin of 7 points. Their schedule is not that good. The metrics are saying they are only like 7-10 points better than an average team. While Ohio state is 25-30 points better than an average team.

After week 2, Oregon should be ranked higher. Today, I’m not sure I would have Oregon in the top 15. I would put Ohio State around 5th.

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

it’s just because Oregon has only beaten their opponents by a scoring margin of 7 points.

True. But Oregon has a greater win than many teams including OSU. It’s NCAA football and it’s almost as wild as PGA tournaments can be. Nobody expected Oregon to beat OSU with the star power and recruiting OSU has. 
 

Yes, Oregon as well as OU has continued to look poor, but they’re winning. If OSU had beaten Oregon yet continued to win with less a margin, they’d be higher ranked than they are now. Cincinnati shows that. One decent win against ND and they’re number 2. They squeak by Navy and should’ve been punished more. Yeah, yeah the triple option …like that’s a surprise? But unfortunately a loss in the NCAA world is huge fir the big boys. If OU loses to OkSt or IowaSt or TX…they’ll get tanked. OSU beating PSU will be …meh. But if they beat MSU/MI, they should get put above Cincinnati in my opinion.

[saevel25]

8 hours ago, Vinsk said:

True. But Oregon has a greater win than many teams including OSU. It’s NCAA football and it’s almost as wild as PGA tournaments can be. Nobody expected Oregon to beat OSU with the star power and recruiting OSU has. 

Teams with lots of star power can easily go 8-3 versus 12-0. Look at USC about 5 years ago. They had top 10 recruiting, some classes in the top 5, yet never did well at all. They should have owned the Pac-12. Recruiting matters, you pretty much have to average a top 5 recruiting class to win a national championship. In the end, it still is development of players and having them play well. During that time for USC, Rory is USC. He's got all the talent, but he couldn't win. Talent-wise, he should be a multi-time winner every year. 

8 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Yeah, yeah the triple option …like that’s a surprise?

The issue with the triple option is, they just need 3-4 yards per carry to just march down the field and take an entire quarter off the clock. When your # of possession is cut in half, they immediately cut your scoring in half. You take a team averaging 40 points per game, and make them score 21-24 per game. At a certain level, if you get a team under 24, then it basically means any team can win. The margin for error is small. You get both teams under 14 points per game, it is chaos. Look at Illinois v PSU. It basically became a coin flip because the game was in the teens. A blown coverage and 2-FG get you 13 points. It doesn't take much to score 14 points. 

 

[Vinsk]

What annoys me is the Cincinnati issue. I agree that if OSU played Oregon now, OSU would win. But I also feel OSU, Alabama, Georgia and maybe OU would all humiliate Cincinnati. I wish Cincinnati would have to do more to get into a top four slot. Alabama Georgia OSU and OU makes for a better top to me than having Cincinnati lurking around waiting to get routed.

[Double Mocha Man]

48 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

What annoys me is the Cincinnati issue. I agree that if OSU played Oregon now, OSU would win. But I also feel OSU, Alabama, Georgia and maybe OU would all humiliate Cincinnati. I wish Cincinnati would have to do more to get into a top four slot. Alabama Georgia OSU and OU makes for a better top to me than having Cincinnati lurking around waiting to get routed.

Teams are stronger or weaker every season, irrespective of the rankings.  What do they know.  Let us not forget Boise State (who?) of 2017 in a bowl game beating Oregon 38-28.

[Vinsk]

49 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

Teams are stronger or weaker every season, irrespective of the rankings.  What do they know.  Let us not forget Boise State (who?) of 2017 in a bowl game beating Oregon 38-28.

True, but this is where I agree with @saevel25 regarding metrics. There’s always some ‘scrub’ team that has a good season. Marshall, UCF, NW, but it doesn’t mean they get a shot at the title. Why? Because in all probability it will be a blow out. Just because flukes are possible doesn’t mean a 12-0 scrub should go fit the National title. If Fresno State was 7-0 right now and played OSU or Georgia, Alabama, OU, it would be a total blow out. Nobody really wants to see that.

[saevel25]

7 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

True, but this is where I agree with @saevel25 regarding metrics. There’s always some ‘scrub’ team that has a good season. Marshall, UCF, NW, but it doesn’t mean they get a shot at the title. Why? Because in all probability it will be a blow out. Just because flukes are possible doesn’t mean a 12-0 scrub should go fit the National title. If Fresno State was 7-0 right now and played OSU or Georgia, Alabama, OU, it would be a total blow out. Nobody really wants to see that.

Wake Forest is basically SMU (who is undefeated). 

So, the expected scoring margin would be like 18-21 points. 

[Double Mocha Man]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

True, but this is where I agree with @saevel25 regarding metrics. There’s always some ‘scrub’ team that has a good season. Marshall, UCF, NW, but it doesn’t mean they get a shot at the title. Why? Because in all probability it will be a blow out. Just because flukes are possible doesn’t mean a 12-0 scrub should go fit the National title. If Fresno State was 7-0 right now and played OSU or Georgia, Alabama, OU, it would be a total blow out. Nobody really wants to see that.

I wonder if I can go back and find the betting line on Oregon vs. Boise State in that 2017 bowl game.  Was Oregon favored by 21 points???  A predicted blowout???  I don't know.  Otherwise I agree with you in the big picture... a lot of these unheralded teams with great win/loss records would be blown out by major conference quality teams. 

But, on the flip side, it can always play out like the unheard of, non-entity John Daly winning the PGA Championship. 

That's the beauty of sports and why we keep coming back.

Addendum:  I went and checked... easier than I thought.  The line was only 7 points.  But the over/under was a hefty 62.5 points.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Double Mocha Man

[Vinsk]

37 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

I wonder if I can go back and find the betting line on Oregon vs. Boise State in that 2017 bowl game.  Was Oregon favored by 21 points???  A predicted blowout???  I don't know.  Otherwise I agree with you in the big picture... a lot of these unheralded teams with great win/loss records would be blown out by major conference quality teams. 

But, on the flip side, it can always play out like the unheard of, non-entity John Daly winning the PGA Championship. 

That's the beauty of sports and why we keep coming back.

Addendum:  I went and checked... easier than I thought.  The line was only 7 points.  But the over/under was a hefty 62.5 points.

Yeah…but I gotta say, I’ve never been impressed with Oregon. The Crap-12 has been overrated for a long time. They’re washed up. Like UNLV basketball. Oregon/Boise..yeah I can see a 7pt line.

But remember, like what happened to OU vs Boise, teams like Boise have nothing to lose when they play big cats. They have pure motivation and are fired up. It matters. OU, OSU, Alabama…don’t really get fired up unless it’s the CFP. It’s like Tiger being fired up for a constellation match at a WGC. Just no fire, they want the big one. So OU had very little interest in a bowl game vs Boise.

If OSU were to lose against Georgia for example then play in some Bowl game vs  WF, they would have minimal interest. But WF would be playing for their biggest game in a decade. A team’s attitude/motivation matters.

[Double Mocha Man]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

Yeah…but I gotta say, I’ve never been impressed with Oregon. The Crap-12 has been overrated for a long time. They’re washed up. Like UNLV basketball. Oregon/Boise..yeah I can see a 7pt line.

But remember, like what happened to OU vs Boise, teams like Boise have nothing to lose when they play big cats. They have pure motivation and are fired up. It matters. OU, OSU, Alabama…don’t really get fired up unless it’s the CFP. It’s like Tiger being fired up for a constellation match at a WGC. Just no fire, they want the big one. So OU had very little interest in a bowl game vs Boise.

If OSU were to lose against Georgia for example then play in some Bowl game vs  WF, they would have minimal interest. But WF would be playing for their biggest game in a decade. A team’s attitude/motivation matters.

Hey Kevin... you just won the prize for most acronyms in a single post.  😄😄😄And why do you think Oregon State University is so good?  And if you're referring to Ohio State, that would be TOSU.  

[Vinsk]

I graciously use ‘OSU’ for Ohio State despite everyone knowing that ‘OSU’ always refers to Oklahoma State University.😀

[Double Mocha Man]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

I graciously use ‘OSU’ for Ohio State despite everyone knowing that ‘OSU’ always refers to Oklahoma State University.😀

Closer to Colorado where you hated the winters... 😄

[WilliamB]

On 10/26/2021 at 4:56 PM, Vinsk said:

You’re doing the classic B1G argument Matt. Stop trying to say beating unranked teams by a lot is more credible than beating ranked teams even if by one score. You’re way to absorbed in numbers and disregarding what’s actually happening out there. You’re right about the AP poll. But nobody wants to play tough games week after week as opposed to unranked, unmatched opponents. I don’t care how much OhioSt bests Rutgers by, or NW or Maryland. They’re unmatched teams for OhioSt. Oregon beat OhioSt. OhioSt lost. Period. I don’t care what the numbers show. They lost. Oh! But OhioSt destroyed Rutgers, struggled against Tulsa, destroyed Maryland so let’s rank them above Oregon? Again, numbers against flops are meaningless. Let’s see how they do when they finally play a ranked team, the steadily fading PSU.

Does anybody beating anybody count? No matter if they are ranked or not is their ranking is correct? If Ohio State we're to be Georgia Cincinnati Alabama or Oklahoma, why would that be an accomplishment for Ohio State? Who says those four teams I just mentioned are properly ranked? I will admit that a lot of big-name teams feast off of no-name teams, but I think there are a couple reasons for that. It gets the powerhouse's ready for the actual season and gives the no names a bit of notoriety and income. 

Edited October 28, 2021 by WilliamB

[Vinsk]

9 hours ago, WilliamB said:

If Ohio State we're to be Georgia Cincinnati Alabama or Oklahoma, why would that be an accomplishment for Ohio State?

Huh?

[HankBlue]

The way it SHOULD be:

There are 11 conferences in FBS (counting "independents" as a conference).  Each conference champion gets a berth in the playoff plus one "at-large" bid [thus not losing the ongoing weekly debate for sportscasters].

Bottom 8, by national ranking, play each other at neutral sites (bowls?).  The four winners play the four that got a bye.  The winners of those games are your FINAL FOUR.  It's very simple.  So, why isn't this happening?  

Money, obviously.  But not just the big money at the top... the "little schools" that would never make the playoff (but go to bowls) would lose out big.

That said, under the current system, NO TEAM that is NOT a CONFRENCE CHAMPION should be in the playoff.  Because, how can you be the best team in the country, if you're not even the best team in your conference?

Edited October 28, 2021 by HankBlue