Winning at Match Play vs. Stroke Play

[Big C]

1 hour ago, GolfLug said:

Yah, so statistically it ain't even close. Match play gives anyone a shot at an exponentially bigger piece of the pie. We agree on this. 

Vishal can you elaborate on what you mean by this? 

The pie is the same in either case, as there is still only one championship up for grabs. 

Match play might favor more skilled players (which I think is Erik's point), but it cannot fundamentally be easier or harder than stroke play in a general sense. 

[Friz]

Didn't read all the comments yet, but thinking Stroke Play is harder to win in all formats.  You have to be definitively better than every other player in the field to win Stroke Play, a bad round could ruin everything, a single very bad hole could ruin everything.

But Match Play you only have to be definitively better than 6 or 7 players, and only one at a time.  A bad round could be salvaged if only one other person (your opponent) Also struggles.  A very bad hole only impacts you in the one moment and doesn't carry over.

I'm sure either would be quite difficult, but match play statistically seems like much better odds to win

[mdl]

I voted match play is easier to win for both and I don't think it's even close

Edited June 27, 2022 by mdl

[Big C]

21 minutes ago, mdl said:

I voted match play is easier to win for both and I don't think it's even close

Again - might be easier for some. Which means it must be harder for others. Saying it is universally easier is not mathematically possible.

[GolfLug]

49 minutes ago, Big C said:

Vishal can you elaborate on what you mean by this? 

The pie is the same in either case, as there is still only one championship up for grabs. 

Match play might favor more skilled players (which I think is Erik's point), but it cannot fundamentally be easier or harder than stroke play in a general sense. 

Colin, sorry yeah, to me easier = easier for the skilled player to win. 

[saevel25]

47 minutes ago, Big C said:

Match play might favor more skilled players (which I think is Erik's point), but it cannot fundamentally be easier or harder than stroke play in a general sense. 

This contradicts itself. 

You say that Match Play favors better skilled players. Favors being, it is easier. If it was fundamentally the same as stroke play than it doesn't favor the more skilled golfers. 

 

[Big C]

31 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

This contradicts itself. 

You say that Match Play favors better skilled players. Favors being, it is easier. If it was fundamentally the same as stroke play than it doesn't favor the more skilled golfers. 

 

No it's pretty straightforward. A field of 128 golfers will feature players with a range of relative skill levels. 

If you believe that the match play format favors the top 10th or 20th percentile of those golfers to a greater degree than stroke play, you must also believe that match play must be a harder format to win for the remaining 80th or 90th percent of golfers. 

Neither format can be easier as a universal rule. 

Edited June 28, 2022 by Big C

[GolfLug]

1 hour ago, Big C said:

No it's pretty straightforward. A field of 128 golfers will feature players with a range of relative skill levels. 

If you believe that the match play format favors the top 10th or 20th percentile of those golfers to a greater degree than stroke play, you must also believe that match play must be a harder format to win for the remaining 80th or 90th percent of golfers. 

Neither format can be easier as a universal rule. 

So really, from your perspective the OP is a non-question. No competition, is either easier or harder to win. Rather, it depends on who you ask. 

I would say, that perspective is not correct. A competition that has more parity is harder. Let's say you are one of the 10 players to get hot a particular week out of 128 players in stroke play, you have to compete with every single one of the other nine directly, unlike you being one of the 10 hot players in match play similar size field where you might compete with only 1 or 2 directly.

So if you get hot, it is easier to beat 1-2 other hot players than nine. Would you not agree? 

Edited June 28, 2022 by GolfLug

[Big C]

7 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

Let's say you are one of the 10 players to get hot a particular week out of 128 players in stroke play, you have to compete with every single one of the other nine directly, unlike you being one of the 10 hot players in match play similar size field where you might compete with only 1 or 2 directly.

So if you get hot, it is easier to beat 1-2 other hot players than nine. Would you not agree? 

I would disagree. 

Because whether you are talking about a match play field, or a stroke play event, the simple fact remains...... 9 of those 10 hot golfers are still going to lose to somebody. Format makes no difference - there is only one winner.

[GolfLug]

50 minutes ago, Big C said:

Format makes no difference - there is only one winner.

Lol, Colin that's like saying nothing truly matters in life, because we all die one day...😊. I guess we do.

[Big C]

36 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

Lol, Colin that's like saying nothing truly matters in life, because we all die one day...😊. I guess we do.

Ha. Deep thoughts..... by Big C.

But in all seriousness, I'm not trying to be glib. I'm just saying that a couple of your 10 hypothetical "hot" golfers will probably see their odds improve because of the vagaries of match play and a few of those 10 will see their odds worsen (for example, those that play another hot golfer in round 1). In the end, the hypotheticals don't change the fact 9 of those 10 hot golfers will walk away without the trophy in either format. 

If you want to say that match play tournaments offer a better path for a skilled player to prevail over less skilled players, I would that it's counter-intuitive (to me, anyway), but I'm willing to see the arguments and accept the possibility that it's correct. 

But 1 divides into 128 no matter which way you slice it. So saying that match player offers an easier path for a random golfer to win a tournament just ain't true.

[reidsou]

question 1: All players of equal skill, the probability of winning is 1/128 for both. 

question 2: smaller field = greater chance to win! 

[Beastie]

15 hours ago, GolfLug said:

Haven't three players won just about everything of importance in men's tennis in the last 20 years? Match play reduces luck factor as someone pointed out in a prior post. Stroke play is a simultaneous match play with everyone in the field... i.e. much harder to standout. 

 

Yes, but in tennis the players actions directly impact on his/her competitors. Not so in golf

[GolfLug]

6 hours ago, Big C said:

Ha. Deep thoughts..... by Big C.

But in all seriousness, I'm not trying to be glib. I'm just saying that a couple of your 10 hypothetical "hot" golfers will probably see their odds improve because of the vagaries of match play and a few of those 10 will see their odds worsen (for example, those that play another hot golfer in round 1). In the end, the hypotheticals don't change the fact 9 of those 10 hot golfers will walk away without the trophy in either format. 

If you want to say that match play tournaments offer a better path for a skilled player to prevail over less skilled players, I would that it's counter-intuitive (to me, anyway), but I'm willing to see the arguments and accept the possibility that it's correct. 

But 1 divides into 128 no matter which way you slice it. So saying that match player offers an easier path for a random golfer to win a tournament just ain't true.

The argument in my mind is that there is a smaller effective field. At least some of those hot players get eliminated with no contribution from you. 

40 minutes ago, Beastie said:

Yes, but in tennis the players actions directly impact on his/her competitors. Not so in golf

The parallel is that you only have to beat the ones that enter the court/course with you. 

Edited June 28, 2022 by GolfLug

[Chris Brooks]

5 hours ago, reidsou said:

question 1: All players of equal skill, the probability of winning is 1/128 for both. 

question 2: smaller field = greater chance to win! 

I think the answer to the question of probability of win vs. a single other player is important. Would be fun to run a Monte Carlo simulation on this to see how it plays out.

[iacas]

8 hours ago, reidsou said:

question 1: All players of equal skill, the probability of winning is 1/128 for both. 

Everyone is not equal skill.

10 hours ago, Big C said:

But 1 divides into 128 no matter which way you slice it. So saying that match player offers an easier path for a random golfer to win a tournament just ain't true.

Ah, but… in stroke play tournaments there is a cut. As there is in match play, where there's a cut every day. Plus, history matters in stroke play.

So it's also not quite the 1/128 that you portray, because of those two things.

• In match play, you can shoot 81 but still win your match and move on. Just like you can shoot 58 and still win your match and move on. But either way, your history is irrelevant to the next match. History matters quite a bit in stroke play, as a first-round 58 would put you well into the lead, and a third-round 81 will undoubtedly take you completely out of it.
• Fields in stroke play aren't 128 players… they're 128, 128, and then the better half of 64, 64. So you're eliminating the guys who could shoot good rounds on the weekend to win (but unlikely). It's more likely that you're eliminating guys who could beat you in match play, because a) bullet point one doesn't matter in match play, and b) because every round has a cut, not just after two rounds, or three. So the field sizes are "only" 128 (same), then immediately 64 (one round earlier), then 32, 16, 8, 4, and 2.

[reidsou]

43 minutes ago, iacas said:

Everyone is not equal skill.

Clearly. However, the question did not specify which player we're talking about nor whether that player is more or less skilled than the rest of the field. We're talking about a random player In a field of 128. The probability that player wins is 1 in 128, regardless of format. 

[iacas]

3 minutes ago, reidsou said:

Clearly. However, the question did not specify which player we're talking about nor whether that player is more or less skilled than the rest of the field. We're talking about a random player In a field of 128. The probability that player wins is 1 in 128, regardless of format. 

It did in later posts.

Plus one can still feel “easier” even if the math is similar.

The question dates back to Hagen’s PGAs.