10% theory on golf

[clearwaterms]

This is my theory on shot selection, and I wanted to post it here to see what everybody thought. I call it the 10% theory, and if it works like I think it does, it should lead to pretty consistent bogey or better golf. The theory starts out with the fact that all golfers, Professional, and amatuers alike are not going to hit their exact target all of the time, in fact most, if not all will miss that target by a small percantage. David Pelz in his book mentions that pro's are usually around 7% or less. So my 10% theory comes from that. The theory is simply a good golf shot is one that ends within a ring 10% the size of the total distance of the club from the target. IN other words, if you hit a driver 250 yards, after you pick your target, if the ball lands within 25 yards (in any direction) of that target you hit an acceptable golf shot. Obviosly the hope is that you will end up closer, but within 10% is an acceptable golf shot. As the distances get shorter so too does the acceptable target get smaller.

Lets take a 400 yard par 4. I consider myself an average golfer, 250 yard drives, 170 5 iron, 150 7 iron. I look at the course map and see a spot in the middle of the fairway that has plenty of safety in a 25 yard radius around it (no fairway bunkers, water, etc) if I end up in the rough, no worries. I hit my driver. Worst case scenario I am going to end up short, 225 yards total distance is still an acceptable golf shot (assuming it's straight down the target line). My next shot will be between 175 and 125 yards to the pin. For the sake of arguement, lets take a 240 yard drive. For me that leaves 160 yard 6 iron into the green. Now, looking at the green, most green's around me are approx 20 yards front to back. So aiming for th emiddle of the green should put me on the putting surface. However, once again, I will review the shot and pick a club (maybe longer or shorter) based not neccessarily on the location of the pin, but what is LEAST likely to get me in trouble if I have a shot that is at the extreme end of that 10%. So lets assume the flag is in the middle of the green and I hit my 6 iron either 10% long or short, now I am 16 yards or approx. 48 feet from the pin after 2 shots. If I was closer then 10%, I would have a shorter putt, but worst case scenario I have a 48' putt for birdie. In putting, a good golfer will make every putt within 2', 50% of putts at 6', 1 in 10 putts at 10', and the statistacs get much smaller after that. on a 48' putt, I would expect to leave the ball approx. 4.8' away from the pin in an acceptable shot. Now, this doesn't guarentee me a par, but I have a legitimate shot at par, have taken very few risks, if I don't make the 4.8' putt, I should make bogey.

So, if I play 4 acceptable shots (remember, not great perfect, stars, the moon and sun aligned shots, just acceptable shots) I can make par on a 400 yard par 4, but shouldn't take worse then a bogey.

How does this theory help me? Well, to be honest I don't hit all of my clubs within 10% of the target 100% of the time, not even close. However, I can reflect back on my round and think which clubs I hit least often to my 10% target ring, and those are the clubs that I need to focus on when I practice. Also, it helps me see the forest through the trees and play golf like a good chess player looking at the course 2-4 moves ahead at all times. Often times, I will see a hazard at 250 yards that might make the driver not a great idea. On a 350 yard par 4, I can hit a hybrid or fairway wood off the tee, and still get home in two. Finally, it helps me keep myself focused on the game. I don't get upset when I didn't stick a pitching wedge 6' from the hole, Im not Tiger, I'm just a guy with 18-19 handicap. It helps put the game in perspective, and play it with a mathmatic systematic approach.

What is everybody's thoughts? Suggestions? Improvements? Is this theory sound?

[denver_nuggs_15]

It's the whole entire theory behind golf. It's what you're supposed to do. It's nothing new.

There's a giant fairway in front of you. Hit it. There's a smaller green with an even smaller cup. You know your yardage, so pick the right club that should get you pin high. Since you're on the green, just 2 putt for par. Golf sounds so easy...but it's not. I really don't understand the point of your theory...it's already been done. Plus, 10% accuracy seems pretty good for an 18-19 handicap.

[Bo the Golfer]

Boy-some on this forum are so quick to shoot others down.

While this theory is not breaking huge ground I applaud the thought process you go through. The one part I would stay away from for myself would be the chess playing mentality. I tend to get into trouble thinking too many shots ahead. I certainly think about where I would like to play my next shot from but if I start thinking about a shot or two after that I am in trouble. As you said yourself, being inside 10% is not always happening but I think it's a great goal for each shot.

[David in FL]

Without commenting specifically on your theory (what works for you, may or may not work for someone else) I'm going to congratulate you nonetheless. You've taken a step that's necessary to playing good golf and one that many golfers never really embrace......and that's thinking and planning your way around the course. Too many people just go out there and play shot by shot, accepting whatever the next shot might be without any thought as to whether there might be a better alternative.

Keep it up, and you'll likely find that your scores will drop faster, even if your ball striking doesn't improve quite as fast.

[iacas]

Plus, for most people, that 25 is skewed dramatically (often short and right). Additionally, there are very few places in the world where "a 25-yard radius" is entirely clean - golf is all about weighing the risks. I'd rather be in the left rough than the lake on the right, even if the fairway's "only" 30 yards wide.

I wouldn't call it a "theory." It's what good golfers do almost automatically. If putting it that way helps you, good for you.

[shades9323]

  David in FL said:

and that's

That is because most of us aren't good enough to put the ball where we want it anyway.

[zeg]

Good thought process. I'd say that, while 10% may be a nice number to think about, you really want to know your personal "error circle" as part of knowing your game. It's probably more of an error ellipse or error kidney, but the main thing is to know the area where, say, 50% of your shots will wind up given a target point. The best next shot isn't the one that puts your target in the best spot, it's the one that has the biggest overlap between your error circle and safe parts of the course.

This reminds me of the recent discussion (don't recall which thread) about clubbing up to account for the fact that most often your shots will come out less than perfectly struck. I know for myself, and I gather that for most noobish recreational golfers, a lot more shots wind up short than long. Aiming to put a flushed 8I just at the target is not a wise shot -- I'll probably come up at least half a club short of that on average, so drop to a 7I and then on average I'm landing right on the target. Sometimes short, sometimes long; assuming there's no deadly trouble past the target, that's ideal. That's the one-dimensional version of your principle.

[enduro]

I play like an idiot a lot. I often go for it, taking the high risk shot. My course management has gotten better lately though and I'm less of a risk taker. I'm getting more intuitive about knowing when to take risks and when to be grateful for an easy par.

But for me, out of the woods is always the challenge. Do I punch out or do I go for the amazing shot? And sadly, the amazing shot happens enough to keep me thinking. But I've gotten better at figuring out what the amazing shot is worth (will it put me on the green or just closer than a punch out?) and if I really can make it.

Course management is a big thing.

[Leftygolfer]

I think it is a nice theory. Whatever makes you think how can I make the best score then that is what you should do.

Being good at golf is managing your misses. It is understanding where the ball is going to go when you miss it. I don't play for misses but I am very aware of my tendencies. I understand that I am not a good mid range iron player. I don't have time to work on it right now so I have to manage my way around the course knowing that I am much better hitting driver if I can get into my wedges (even though this swing flaw can creep down into my PW and I can hit a huge pull). For me that is the best way around a course.

[Brakkus]

You seem a cereberal character so thinking straight is part of the game.On this theory of yours I just bought a pedometer so I can measure some averages with my clubs.I know based on course yardage how much club I need but I don't know exactly what my club averages are so it should be interesting to gather the imformation.
Club selection has been a fun part of the game for me,especially watching everyone in the group pulling out drivers whacking it all over the course while I hit a hybrid.

[lazykoala]

It is a nice gameplan to have when going into a round, but I think most people are aware of the general area they need to improve on. I think the average golfer just observes their own tendencies subconsciously, but if you want to be very precise about it I guess it could help. Only thing I would worry about is maybe being too focused on something specific instead of just trying to hit a good golf shot.