Big Break Florida (2014) Thread

[bobbob]

Quote:

I don't know where you get your info from but according to the Golf Channel site, Tonya earned conditional status to the Ladies European Tour in 2010 (which she gave up because of pregnancy) and had 4 top tens on the Cactus Tour last year (as opposed to the info you are posting).  So yeah, based on the competition, I think she probably has the game to win this.   I really only see Lindsay and Jackie as having  comparable resumes.  Mary's whole game is based on intimidation and that is only going to carry her so far, especially since she is really very insecure, so under real stress, I expect her to fold.   Sadena is showing some comparatively decent skills but a tendency to choke under pressure, whereas Tonya has managed to earn immunity on every show and seems largely unaffected by the stress of any particular shot so far.  So yeah, Tonya remains my best guess as the ultimate winner.

First of all, don't read too much into the Golf Channel bios--the info isn't very accurate at all. Though none of the stuff said is outright untrue, many things are exaggerated. For example, it said Courtney played on the Canadian Tour--turns out she played one tournament and got cut after shooting a 94.

But yes, turns out it is true that Tonya did have a few top ten finishes on the Cactus tour last year, though sadly, those top 10s were all in tournaments with very weak 20 player fields. The fact that she simply does not qualify to play on the Symetra tour speaks for itself. Jackie comparatively, has been consistently on the top 25 on the Symetra tour money list for the past three years and has status on the LPGA tour. Sadena, Renee, and Mary also have full status on the Symetra tour. This should make it pretty cut and dry who the top four ladies on the show are (the 4 with full Symetra tour status). For an analogy on a men's tour, the four are like playing the Web.com tour while the others including Tonya are like egolf tour, NGA tour, or Canadian tour players that can't even qualify for a Web.com event.

Also, yeah Renee kind of seems to be struggling dealing with the pressure but I think she will get better as the show progresses.

On the looks side, Mary looks to be at least 250 pounds. And is it just me, or does Kristi look like an alien?

[Hammer 4]

First of all, don't read too much into the Golf Channel bios--the info isn't very accurate at all. Though none of the stuff said is outright untrue, many things are exaggerated. For example, it said Courtney played on the Canadian Tour--turns out she played one tournament and got cut after shooting a 94.

But yes, turns out it is true that Tonya did have a few top ten finishes on the Cactus tour last year, though sadly, those top 10s were all in tournaments with very weak 20 player fields. The fact that she simply does not qualify to play on the Symetra tour speaks for itself. Jackie comparatively, has been consistently on the top 25 on the Symetra tour money list for the past three years and has status on the LPGA tour. Sadena, Renee, and Mary also have full status on the Symetra tour. This should make it pretty cut and dry who the top four ladies on the show are (the 4 with full Symetra tour status). For an analogy on a men's tour, the four are like playing the Web.com tour while the others including Tonya are like egolf tour, NGA tour, or Canadian tour players that can't even qualify for a Web.com event.

Also, yeah Renee kind of seems to be struggling dealing with the pressure but I think she will get better as the show progresses.

On the looks side, Mary looks to be at least 250 pounds. And is it just me, or does Kristi look like an alien?

I had to LOL at the Kristi thing.. I also think Renee will step up soon.  I do believe it's gonna come down to Tonya, and Sadena, I could be wrong. BTW, thanks for the info re: these gals.

[clutchshot]

I'll give Rene the benefit of the doubt, as she could be very nervous and not concentrating ..? we'll see.

I won't... This is little league, if you can't handle pressure of cameras and no names, how are you going to play on tour? I don't really care who is the best ball striker at the range, all that matters is who is in competition.

[BuckeyeNut]

I usually have clear favorites by now, but the play has been weak so far.   IMO...the worst players are going first, so I guess that's a good thing.

[teamroper60]

First of all, don't read too much into the Golf Channel bios--the info isn't very accurate at all. Though none of the stuff said is outright untrue, many things are exaggerated. For example, it said Courtney played on the Canadian Tour--turns out she played one tournament and got cut after shooting a 94.

But yes, turns out it is true that Tonya did have a few top ten finishes on the Cactus tour last year, though sadly, those top 10s were all in tournaments with very weak 20 player fields. The fact that she simply does not qualify to play on the Symetra tour speaks for itself. Jackie comparatively, has been consistently on the top 25 on the Symetra tour money list for the past three years and has status on the LPGA tour. Sadena, Renee, and Mary also have full status on the Symetra tour. This should make it pretty cut and dry who the top four ladies on the show are (the 4 with full Symetra tour status). For an analogy on a men's tour, the four are like playing the Web.com tour while the others including Tonya are like egolf tour, NGA tour, or Canadian tour players that can't even qualify for a Web.com event.

Also, yeah Renee kind of seems to be struggling dealing with the pressure but I think she will get better as the show progresses.

On the looks side, Mary looks to be at least 250 pounds. And is it just me, or does Kristi look like an alien?

I think you might be reading too much into the stats you're posting..   First off, you talk about positions in a few tournaments but apparently forget that even the best players on the PGA tour have bad tournaments, miss cuts, etc....

Despite having virtually given up golf for several years to raise kids, Tonya has shown skills that are on par with the better players on this show but more than that, I am watching not only the actual golf but also their body language and how they handle stress.   From what I have seen, Tonya has been among the steadiest.   Somebody pointed out that she is more mature than the others and that is true but regardless of the reason for it, thus far, she is handling the stress very well.   Many of the others have not.   This is why I think she wins it all.

Sadena has shown the skills to win the game but she has  also shown she can be rattled.  When it gets to crunch time, the question will be whether she can keep it together or not.

Mary is a joke.  Sure, she can hit some shots but she is all about being a bully and that is her real game.   I've noticed it is working on some players but not all of them.   I predict that like most school yard bullies, Mary will fold when she ends up in an elimination challenge against someone who is not affected by her bullying tactics.

Renee will be lucky to last another couple of shows.   She is clearly bothered by the stresses of the show (which as someone else pointed out, are small potatoes compared to the LPGA tour) and since this is really happening over the course of a few days, not the weeks it takes us to see it, she doesn't have time to struggle now and improve later.    IMHO, she doesn't stand a prayer of making the final show, let alone win the thing.

[bobbob]

I think you might be reading too much into the stats you're posting..   First off, you talk about positions in a few tournaments but apparently forget that even the best players on the PGA tour have bad tournaments, miss cuts, etc....

Despite having virtually given up golf for several years to raise kids, Tonya has shown skills that are on par with the better players on this show but more than that, I am watching not only the actual golf but also their body language and how they handle stress.   From what I have seen, Tonya has been among the steadiest.   Somebody pointed out that she is more mature than the others and that is true but regardless of the reason for it, thus far, she is handling the stress very well.   Many of the others have not.   This is why I think she wins it all.

Sadena has shown the skills to win the game but she has  also shown she can be rattled.  When it gets to crunch time, the question will be whether she can keep it together or not.

Mary is a joke.  Sure, she can hit some shots but she is all about being a bully and that is her real game.   I've noticed it is working on some players but not all of them.   I predict that like most school yard bullies, Mary will fold when she ends up in an elimination challenge against someone who is not affected by her bullying tactics.

Renee will be lucky to last another couple of shows.   She is clearly bothered by the stresses of the show (which as someone else pointed out, are small potatoes compared to the LPGA tour) and since this is really happening over the course of a few days, not the weeks it takes us to see it, she doesn't have time to struggle now and improve later.    IMHO, she doesn't stand a prayer of making the final show, let alone win the thing.

" First off, you talk about positions in a few tournaments but apparently forget that even the best players on the PGA tour have bad tournaments, miss cuts, etc.... "

Whats ironic here is that you are the one assessing the players incorrectly by the few shots they hit on a show. Surely, surely a full 36 or 54 hole tournament result is a better gauge of a player's capabilities than a few shots to point circles on a green from 95 yards, don't you agree? Yes, I know about having a bad tournament but it is much more likely to have a few fluke shots than a fluke round or tournament. I am assessing the players based on about 200 shots, you are doing so based upon 10 shots hit in four episodes. Surely my stats are better indicators than your judgement based off of such a small sample size.

" Despite having virtually given up golf for several years to raise kids, Tonya has shown skills that are on par with the better players on this show but more than that, I am watching not only the actual golf but also their body language and how they handle stress.   From what I have seen, Tonya has been among the steadiest.   Somebody pointed out that she is more mature than the others and that is true but regardless of the reason for it, thus far, she is handling the stress very well.   Many of the others have not.   This is why I think she wins it all.

Sadena has shown the skills to win the game but she has  also shown she can be rattled.  When it gets to crunch time, the question will be whether she can keep it together or not.

Mary is a joke.  Sure, she can hit some shots but she is all about being a bully and that is her real game.   I've noticed it is working on some players but not all of them.   I predict that like most school yard bullies, Mary will fold when she ends up in an elimination challenge against someone who is not affected by her bullying tactics.

Renee will be lucky to last another couple of shows.   She is clearly bothered by the stresses of the show (which as someone else pointed out, are small potatoes compared to the LPGA tour) and since this is really happening over the course of a few days, not the weeks it takes us to see it, she doesn't have time to struggle now and improve later.    IMHO, she doesn't stand a prayer of making the final show, let alone win the thing."

You seem to be making giant inferences based off of the players' backgrounds and personalities. For example, Tonya is a mother and seems to be mature, or Mary has a intimidating, bully-like personality. But this has absolutely nothing to do with their golf games. Being a mother or being being intimidating have absolutely no correlation whatsoever to golf game. Plus, many of the personalities/dramas may be made up by Golf channel producers.

[BENtSwing]

Wow lol. This back and forth between @teamroper60 and @bobbob is more entertaining than the show...well, almost...if it weren't for Melanie Collins, and Lauren's and Renee's legs.

[MS256]

Wow lol. This back and forth between @teamroper60 and @bobbob is more entertaining than the show...well, almost...if it weren't for Melanie Collins, and Lauren's and Renee's legs.

The sad part is with the level of talent I've seen on the show that's probably true. I still can't get over their short game inability.

[BENtSwing]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENtSwing32

Wow lol. This back and forth between @teamroper60 and @bobbob is more entertaining than the show...well, almost...if it weren't for Melanie Collins, and Lauren's and Renee's legs.

The sad part is with the level of talent I've seen on the show that's probably true. I still can't get over their short game inability.

Dude, I know...I started out just giving them the benefit of the doubt that it was nerves from the cameras, but geeez it's terrible. I hope Taylor Collins (my profile pic) makes a guest appearance or I might have to jump the shark on this season.

[teamroper60]

Whats ironic here is that you are the one assessing the players incorrectly by the few shots they hit on a show. Surely, surely a full 36 or 54 hole tournament result is a better gauge of a player's capabilities than a few shots to point circles on a green from 95 yards, don't you agree? Yes, I know about having a bad tournament but it is much more likely to have a few fluke shots than a fluke round or tournament. I am assessing the players based on about 200 shots, you are doing so based upon 10 shots hit in four episodes. Surely my stats are better indicators than your judgement based off of such a small sample size.

You seem to be making giant inferences based off of the players' backgrounds and personalities. For example, Tonya is a mother and seems to be mature, or Mary has a intimidating, bully-like personality. But this has absolutely nothing to do with their golf games. Being a mother or being being intimidating have absolutely no correlation whatsoever to golf game. Plus, many of the personalities/dramas may be made up by Golf channel producers.

You presume I am judging them incorrectly because my opinion differs from yours.   Could you be right?  Sure.   Could I be right?   Sure.   The difference is really in how we are looking at this.   I am assessing them based on how they are performing on the show .   You are assessing them based on stats which, by your own admission above, are not necessarily correct or well researched, since you clearly missed some info..    I am not making any assumptions on how good they may be under typical tournament conditions or how they would perform on an actual tour.   People get hot and have an outstanding week/month, etc..  so I am basing it on how they are performing on the show .

And IMHO, you are completely wrong about whether their backgrounds and personalities have a correlation to the show (and to how they play golf on the whole).   Background and personality has EVERYTHING to do with how anybody plays any sport (and for that matter, goes through life in general).

Renee(whose stats are better than most on the show) has been rattled most of the show and Sadena has been shaken by pressure.   Tonya has been pretty steady and basically unflappable.   Mary's insecurities are glaring (the minute somebody really challenges her, she is gonna fold, big time).   Given the fact that this show probably took all of a week to produce and the fact that many players (with far more game than these gals will ever have) have had bad weeks/months, etc..... I am going to stick with who seems the least bothered by the glare of the spotlight of what is basically a TV game show.   Up to now, that is Tonya and to a lesser extent, Sadena.

BTW, if by some wild chance, your presumption that Mary's personality is made up (which I do not believe), then you should realize she will never make the final show.   Nobody wants to see a hateful, spiteful person win.  So her only shot is for the show to be legit and her intimidation game to go further than I think it will.

[bobbob]

You presume I am judging them incorrectly because my opinion differs from yours.   Could you be right?  Sure.   Could I be right?   Sure.   The difference is really in how we are looking at this.   I am assessing them based on how they are performing on the show.   You are assessing them based on stats which, by your own admission above, are not necessarily correct or well researched, since you clearly missed some info..    I am not making any assumptions on how good they may be under typical tournament conditions or how they would perform on an actual tour.   People get hot and have an outstanding week/month, etc..  so I am basing it on how they are performing on the show.

And IMHO, you are completely wrong about whether their backgrounds and personalities have a correlation to the show (and to how they play golf on the whole).   Background and personality has EVERYTHING to do with how anybody plays any sport (and for that matter, goes through life in general).

Renee(whose stats are better than most on the show) has been rattled most of the show and Sadena has been shaken by pressure.   Tonya has been pretty steady and basically unflappable.   Mary's insecurities are glaring (the minute somebody really challenges her, she is gonna fold, big time).   Given the fact that this show probably took all of a week to produce and the fact that many players (with far more game than these gals will ever have) have had bad weeks/months, etc..... I am going to stick with who seems the least bothered by the glare of the spotlight of what is basically a TV game show.   Up to now, that is Tonya and to a lesser extent, Sadena.

BTW, if by some wild chance, your presumption that Mary's personality is made up (which I do not believe), then you should realize she will never make the final show.   Nobody wants to see a hateful, spiteful person win.  So her only shot is for the show to be legit and her intimidation game to go further than I think it will.

But why would you assess by on show performance when you know it's such a small sample size? I remember in Greenbrier James Lepp said during his match with Brian Cooper "Anyone and really beat anyone on the Big Break because its such a small sample size of shots and you never know whats going to happen." I think that is a very true statement. We cannot know for sure what will happen, we can only predict. The on show results could be totally arbitrary, and thus are not a good indicator of future on show results. Better players tend to hit better shots and generally the better players still come out on top, but sometimes is a degree of randomness as to who plays well and who doesn't, and this may vary day to day. That is why we should not make predictions from what we see on TV solely, we should also factor in tournament results which are a far better indicator of golf game.

And even if we do indeed assess the players based on their on show performance (which i find to be a ludicrous idea), Sadena would be at the top, not Tonya. Sadena won the first challenge in shows 1, 2 and 3 outright (placing 1st alone) and also was one of the four to win immunity in show 4. In other words, she has had money presented to her every episode and so far taken away $9,500. Tonya, on the other hand, has not actually won any of the first immunity challenges and has always had to play in the second immunity challenge. She hasn't even come close to earning any of the cash prizes either. So even you were to assess by on show performance, Tonya wouldn't fare very well either--she is one of the few that hasn't even contended for any of the early immunity/cash prizes.

At this point, I am willing to bet that Tonya does not make the top 4. I am almost 100% sure the final 2 will be Sadena and Jackie, with an outside chance coming from Mary and Renee. Some of the others including Fiamma and Lindsay also have better chances than Tonya (both having won early immunity or cash prizes before).

As regards to backgrounds and personalities--again, they are totally arbitrary. You could have a hardworking and mature mother who simply is not a good golfer and a big bully that is. I agree that a bully's attitude may be detrimental on a golf course, but I don't think you should judge a bully's golf game like that--if her attitude is indeed affecting her game then it will show in the shots/tournament results and you can go off of that--but dont bash them just because they are a bully. A bully who averages a 75 is not a worse golfer than someone else who also averages a 75.

And also, I do actually believe Mary's bully personality is a little exaggerated. Many of her friends who also play on the Symetra tour have said she is a fun person to be around and serveral pictures show them having a good time together. Nothing indicates to me Mary is a bully in real life, and that is why I think her personality is "made up". I don't know why you are saying she is hateful and spiteful....shes just a little overweight.....

[Valleygolfer]

I can't really see where Sadena has been rattled. She missed a small percentage of shots and my guess wasn't exactly happy but not rattled. I am sure the show took her words out of context and pieced together video of a manufactured reaction... I am starting to wonder if my ex's lawyer is working for the show... I am also in agreement that Mary is not a bully. Competitive smack talker yes, bully no. Not hating but in my experience, most lesbian sports players are pretty big shit talkers. Idk if Mary is one but if it looks like a skunk and smells like a skunk....

[inthehole]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MS256

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENtSwing32

Wow lol. This back and forth between @teamroper60 and @bobbob is more entertaining than the show...well, almost...if it weren't for Melanie Collins, and Lauren's and Renee's legs.

The sad part is with the level of talent I've seen on the show that's probably true. I still can't get over their short game inability.

Dude, I know...I started out just giving them the benefit of the doubt that it was nerves from the cameras, but geeez it's terrible. I hope SARAH BROWN (my previous profile pic) makes a guest appearance or I might have to jump the shark on this season.

fixed

ps - really rooting for Renee to pull off the upset  - she just seems like a nice person - stays level headed when she messes up & doesn't get outwardly upset.     Cute as a button too ...

[teamroper60]

But why would you assess by on show performance when you know it's such a small sample size? I remember in Greenbrier James Lepp said during his match with Brian Cooper "Anyone and really beat anyone on the Big Break because its such a small sample size of shots and you never know whats going to happen." I think that is a very true statement.

You answered your own question, so there is no need for me to do it again.

As for my assessment of Mary.  I stand by it.   It has nothing to do with her weight and everything to do with her choice of words and their context and her body language.

I'm really done debating this with you.   I am not going to change your mind (nor do I really care to) and unless you are actually a member of the BB cast or crew and want to divulge some inside information, you stand no chance of changing mine either.  Maybe you will be right.   Maybe I will be.   But there is an equal chance that neither of us will be..   So we will just have to wait and see.

[bobbob]

You answered your own question, so there is no need for me to do it again.

As for my assessment of Mary.  I stand by it.   It has nothing to do with her weight and everything to do with her choice of words and their context and her body language.

I'm really done debating this with you.   I am not going to change your mind (nor do I really care to) and unless you are actually a member of the BB cast or crew and want to divulge some inside information, you stand no chance of changing mine either.  Maybe you will be right.   Maybe I will be.   But there is an equal chance that neither of us will be..   So we will just have to wait and see.

I'm not advocating for Mary either, I just don't think she is a bully as perceived on the show. Her golf game is not the best, but at least she can qualify for the Symetra tour, something many of the others including Tonya cannot do. Qualifying for a tour shows the player's overall body of work over numerous tournaments and thus is the best way to gauge a player's capabilities. Even though we are only picking a small sample size, you are more likely to get a good sample size from the player with a stronger body of work, and although Tonya has gotten a decent "sample size" so far, her luck will run out.

I'm sure the debate will end in the next couple of weeks when Tonya gets eliminated......

The odds for winning at this point are:

Jackie 40%

Sadena 30%

Renee 10%

Mary 10%

Everyone else 10%

On a side note Jackie seems to be doing quite well at the Symetra tour event this week. (Although Renee and Mary not so much, at least they qualified)

[teamroper60]

I'm sure the debate will end in the next couple of weeks when Tonya gets eliminated......

As far as I am concerned, the debate is over now.   Your opinion is yours.   My opinion is mine and as I said above, unless you are a member of the cast/crew of BB (which might be a distinct possibility, since you have only posted on this board 13 times and every one of them is in a BB thread) and are prepared to out yourself as such, I am unfazed by your predictions.

[BENtSwing]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENtSwing32

Quote:

Originally Posted by MS256

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENtSwing32

Wow lol. This back and forth between @teamroper60 and @bobbob is more entertaining than the show...well, almost...if it weren't for Melanie Collins, and Lauren's and Renee's legs.

The sad part is with the level of talent I've seen on the show that's probably true. I still can't get over their short game inability.

Dude, I know...I started out just giving them the benefit of the doubt that it was nerves from the cameras, but geeez it's terrible. I hope SARAH BROWN (my previous profile pic) makes a guest appearance or I might have to jump the shark on this season.

fixed

ps - really rooting for Renee to pull off the upset  - she just seems like a nice person - stays level headed when she messes up & doesn't get outwardly upset.     Cute as a button too ...

LOL @inthehole she fly too

[bobbob]

As far as I am concerned, the debate is over now.   Your opinion is yours.   My opinion is mine and as I said above, unless you are a member of the cast/crew of BB (which might be a distinct possibility, since you have only posted on this board 13 times and every one of them is in a BB thread) and are prepared to out yourself as such, I am unfazed by your predictions.

If I was a Big Break producer why would I be saying that they portrayed Mary incorrectly? I wouldn't have anything to bad to say about the show if I was a Big Break producer....