Tiger will have to earn his way onto Ryder Cup team says Captain Tom Watson

[FarawayFairways]

I'd agree with you 9 iron. If they haven't been converted to game by now, well hey, as a marketeer you've had a good run at them and they clearly aren't your customer. It's a false economy to continue to think otherwise, so rather than appeasing them on frankly silly terms, it would make more sense to grow the base from those who are more receptive rather than those who temporarily plugging in on a whim.

As a matter of interest, would anyone know what US viewing figures are since 1983?

I seem to recall that ABC offered the PGA a compensation payment of $1M not to show the Ryder Cup so as to release them to show something more meaningful. ThePGA rejected it outright, and said that if the future (when the US loses) the RC will be the crown jewels in golf coverage - they were right - so having questioned the PGA in a previous post, it needs to be said, they were spot on in seeing the potential the RC has back then

[Jakester23]

To me, you have the right attitude. If an American won't watch the Ryder Cup simply because Tiger isn't playing then by definition he is more of a Tiger fan than a golf fan. In theory this type of fan won't be watching any golf in the future, because after all Tiger can't play forever.

And whats wrong with that?

[tmac20]

And whats wrong with that?

Golf will decline (even more) in popularity. Bad for the game.

[Jakester23]

Golf will decline (even more) in popularity. Bad for the game.

If Rory, Bubba and Jordan are wining or in the mix in majors there will still be viewers just probably not as many as when Tiger is near the top of the leaderboard.   I have a group of buddies that play golf and only watch Tiger.  If he would quit now they wouldn't sell their clubs and decide to stop playing.  A lot of Hardcore golf fans like a young guy and have kinda accepted the fact that Tiger is closer to the end of his career then the beginning.  The golf fans are going to watch no matter what its the people who are only Tiger fans that will stop watching and thats going to happen no mater what.  Look at how many Americans watch tennis currently.  Individual sports need a larger than life figure winning(even better dominating).

[ScouseJohnny]

Still cheaper than flying London to Sydney though.

True enough!

Just as well for me that if I was destined to marry a girl from the colonies, mine is from below the Mason-Dixon Line rather than the Antipodes....

[FarawayFairways]

I think there's likely to be other factors

American's often invoke the recession, I mention this as it's mildly topical, since yesterday marked the point when the UK regained it's GDP position of 2008 when we hit the credit crunch. America recovered by 2011, so the recession was certainly longer in the UK, and some countries of Europe have been totally battered.

The decline in American participation in golf however began before the credit crunch. Although it would be foolish of me to suggest the credit crunch didn't impact (clearly it never helps) you do sense that it's become a bit of a convenient explanation in some quarters. The figures I last saw showed a downward trajectory at a time of economic prosperity. This trend line continued into the credit crunch, and has kept going in the same direction since. The evidence on that particular chart would suggest something else is impacting on golf as the two don't correlate

Another thing American's invoke is the loss of disposable income attributable to so-called Obama taxes. The tax burden in America is still typically 3-5% lower than it is in the UK and rest of Europe though. American average incomes tend to be higher too. I think this is potentially something to do with perception though, as consumers will spend dependent on what they think is happening and how what they've grown accustomed has changed

I actually think that a combination of a cultural reluctance to travel, allied with a very punitive holiday pattern, is more likely to be responsible for why the American sports fans don't leave the US in anything like the numbers that we're prepared to

America has about 315m people

The UK has about 65m

If we take 40,000 to Sydney to watch a second tier sport, that would be equivalent of America about 200,000 to somewhere like India to watch - well heaven knows what?

Having said that, they did take up a lot of tickets for the World Cup, the most of any country outside of Brazil? or something like that? Well football must be even less engrained in the American sporting landscape than golf, but one suspects it's overtaken it by now. If they travel to Brazil to watch a sport in which they have no tradition, then one is inclined to think that the problem lies with golf

[FarawayFairways]

Tiger plays a very par-based game. That's how you win majors - making a lot of pars and taking advantage of the few opportunities (usually par fives) when you get them. If his playing partner knows that he is tasked with making a lot of birdies, then that affects how they play, and then that in turn affects how Tiger plays.

I'd been meaning to come back to this, but have a moment now

I don't disagree with the analysis, but just want to take it another direction. I seem to recall giving a hypothetical and silly example of a fourball not so long ago where both pairings recorded a better ball par made up as follows

X = 9 birdies and 9 bogeys

Y = 18 pars

The chances are X has won by about 6 holes, provided that for every bogey X1 makes X2 makes a birdie. The 4 or 5 occasions when they both bogey are easily wiped out by the 13-14 occasions when at least one of them birdies etc

The hypothesis is simple, and relates to the idea of streaky players against solid players being better suited by matchplay, and certainly in the fourball format. I know there was a sort of orthodox line of thought that you a pair 1 streaky with 1 steady, but my own view has tended to be go for broke, and pair 2 streaky players in fourballs and then 2 steady players who can keep the ball in play in foursomes

So to get to the point I wanted to consider. We all look at the numerous stats generated over the tour in stroke play conditions. Driving distance, fairways hit, GiR etc Is the most relevant one one for matchplay however the frequently overlooked 'birdie to bogey ratio'? I'd happily have a prolific birdie maker on the team in a fourball, and ride out their bogeys as an 'occupational hazard'

Looking at the stats as they stand. Sergio ranks number 1, followed by Adam Scott

Next on the list we have two Americans who are going to qualify by right,  (Bubba & Dustin)

So the wildcard in 5th place is ....... Kevin Na!!!

Rory, Jimmy Walker, and Zach are the next 3, until we get to the ninth, Ryan Moore (Champion flat jockey in the UK incidentally) Chris Stroud completes the top 10

Hoffman, Howell III, Bradley, & Todd all make the top 20, as do the likely qualifiers of Spieth and Kurchar

Should we be looking to a different set of stats to identify players with matchplay potential?

The absentee (who I expected to see) is Mickelson (perhaps he doesn't make the bogeys?). I'm increasingly wondering if he could be missing out? He doesn't fit the profile of Ray Floyd or Lanny Wadkins who Tom selected last time the gun was put to his head and he had to call it