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Who Will Win The 2015 Masters? Mark Broadie's Stats Model Knows [Golf Magazine]

nevets88

By nevets88,
in Tour Talk

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Note: This thread is 3658 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

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nevets88 Incredible Member

nevets88

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http://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/who-will-win-the-2015-masters-numbers-say-adam-scott-rory-mcIlroy-bubba-watson

Shotlink not used at AGNC? I wonder why.

With the season's first major upon us, I thought it would be interesting to develop a statistical model to predict the Masters winner. And why not? Netflix predicts movies you might like based on your viewing habits, and online music-streaming station Pandora suggests songs to match your listening habits. Sounds straightforward, right? Unfortunately, ShotLink isn't used at the Masters, so I can't look at Augusta-specific Strokes Gained data to assess how a player will perform there. That means I'm limited to using stats from the PGA Tour season and from past Masters finishes.

PLAYERS MOST LIKELY TO WIN THE MASTERS

(Based on Strokes Gained and previous Masters performances)

1 Adam Scott

2 Rory McIlroy

3 Bubba Watson

4 Matt Kuchar

5 Sergio Garcia

6 Jim Furyk

7 Jason Day

8 Justin Rose

9 Charl Schwartzel

10 Jordan Spieth

Steve

Kill slow play. Allow walking. Reduce ineffective golf instruction. Use environmentally friendly course maintenance.

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boogielicious Incredible Member

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http://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/who-will-win-the-2015-masters-numbers-say-adam-scott-rory-mcIlroy-bubba-watson

Shotlink not used at AGNC? I wonder why.

Quote:

With the season's first major upon us, I thought it would be interesting to develop a statistical model to predict the Masters winner. And why not? Netflix predicts movies you might like based on your viewing habits, and online music-streaming station Pandora suggests songs to match your listening habits. Sounds straightforward, right? Unfortunately, ShotLink isn't used at the Masters, so I can't look at Augusta-specific Strokes Gained data to assess how a player will perform there. That means I'm limited to using stats from the PGA Tour season and from past Masters finishes.

PLAYERS MOST LIKELY TO WIN THE MASTERS

(Based on Strokes Gained and previous Masters performances)

1 Adam Scott

2 Rory McIlroy

3 Bubba Watson

4 Matt Kuchar

5 Sergio Garcia

6 Jim Furyk

7 Jason Day

8 Justin Rose

9 Charl Schwartzel

10 Jordan Spieth

They probably wouldn't pay the hefty fee.

Scott

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Golfingdad Incredible Member

Golfingdad

Pretty surprised to not see DJ on the list at all.  Maybe this is why:

Year             Finish

------------------------------

2009              T30

2010              T38

2011              T38

2012              DNP

2013              T13

2014              CUT

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iacas Hall of Fame Member

iacas

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Shotlink not used at AGNC? I wonder why.

I'm sure you can figure out why. They need towers, machinery for accurately positioning things, etc. And the volunteers and people to man them.

Erik J. Barzeski — ⛳ I knock a ball. It goes in a gopher hole. 🏌🏼‍♂️
Director of Instruction Golf Evolution • Owner, The Sand Trap .com • Author, Lowest Score Wins
Golf Digest "Best Young Teachers in America" 2016-17 & "Best in State" 2017-20 • WNY Section PGA Teacher of the Year 2019 :edel: :true_linkswear:

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Golfingdad Incredible Member

Golfingdad

I'm sure you can figure out why. They need towers, machinery for accurately positioning things, etc. And the volunteers and people to man them.

I volunteer.

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nevets88 Incredible Member

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nevets88

Shotlink not used at AGNC? I wonder why.

I'm sure you can figure out why. They need towers, machinery for accurately positioning things, etc. And the volunteers and people to man them.

I wouldn't have if you didn't tell me. But after looking it up, holy sh*t, it's a logistical monster.

http://www.shotlink.com/Tour/WebTemplate/shotlink.nsf/vwMainDisplay2/Background?openDocument

http://www.shotlink.com/Tour/WebTemplate/shotlink.nsf/vwMainDisplay2/LEDScoreboards?openDocument

http://www.shotlink.com/Tour/WebTemplate/shotlink.nsf/vwMainDisplay2/PGAT-PowerRequirements?openDocument

http://www.shotlink.com/Tour/WebTemplate/shotlink.nsf/vwMainDisplay2/PGAT-PhoneLines?opendocument

http://www.shotlink.com/Tour/WebTemplate/shotlink.nsf/vwMainDisplay2/PGAT-VolunteerNeeds?openDocument

http://www.shotlink.com/Tour/WebTemplate/shotlink.nsf/vwMainDisplay2/PGAT-Trucks?openDocument

Steve

Kill slow play. Allow walking. Reduce ineffective golf instruction. Use environmentally friendly course maintenance.

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