Zeroing Out Hurting Your Game?

[Jakester23]

21 minutes ago, Big Lex said:

Who is to say that you can't have double dispersion as the error distribution from a fade (or draw) pattern? Why is it any easier to hit a consistent fade than a consistent straight shot? The hypothetical example also fails because it assumes it's possible to miss the starting line in both directions in a straight pattern, but assumes that in a fade pattern there is zero error in the starting line. If you can learn to hit your starting line every time with a fade, you can also learn to do it with  a straight ball. I think Jack N's argument in his book is a logical fallacy. JMHO

What shot shape do you hit?

[Big Lex]

19 minutes ago, Jakester23 said:

What shot shape do you hit?

Draw

[SavvySwede]

28 minutes ago, natureboy said:

I think that argument in favor of shape seems to have merit. I don't think it makes it completely predictable though as landing on a ridge or a microslope will affect the first bounce and spin release more than the overall green slope and whether you hit or miss those is somewhat random, but on average it makes sense.

Now does playing a stock shape 95% of the time give you an advantage on accuracy if 50% of the slopes act as effective backstops to your shape and 50% act as effective downslopes?

I would say yes because you know where to aim. When the slope favors your shape you have an easier shot with more margin for error. When the slope is against you you can pick a more conservative target and mitigate risk. With the straight pattern you always will have to worry about missing in the unfavorable direction.

43 minutes ago, Big Lex said:

Who is to say that you can't have double dispersion as the error distribution from a fade (or draw) pattern? Why is it any easier to hit a consistent fade than a consistent straight shot? The hypothetical example also fails because it assumes it's possible to miss the starting line in both directions in a straight pattern, but assumes that in a fade pattern there is zero error in the starting line. If you can learn to hit your starting line every time with a fade, you can also learn to do it with  a straight ball. I think Jack N's argument in his book is a logical fallacy. JMHO

No, a fade pattern just means that the starting line is left of target (could be any amount) and the ball works back toward the target. The start line and amount of curve will both vary.

[Jakester23]

14 minutes ago, Big Lex said:

Draw

As of lately me to. How often do you miss right of your intended target? My miss since I started hitting a draw is mostly left. I used to hit a fade. When I miss hit my fade it would almost always over fade. Point being the miss at least from my experience tends to be consistently on one side of my shot shape. I'm not saying everyone is the same but that's why I'm asking your experience.

[Big Lex]

16 minutes ago, Jakester23 said:

As of lately me to. How often do you miss right of your intended target? My miss since I started hitting a draw is mostly left. I used to hit a fade. When I miss hit my fade it would almost always over fade. Point being the miss at least from my experience tends to be consistently on one side of my shot shape. I'm not saying everyone is the same but that's why I'm asking your experience.

I miss left more often than I miss right. Probably 2-3:1 left misses, either hooks or straight-draws. Some pulls .  Very rare pull hook. 

[natureboy]

36 minutes ago, SavvySwede said:

I would say yes because you know where to aim. When the slope favors your shape you have an easier shot with more margin for error. When the slope is against you you can pick a more conservative target and mitigate risk. With the straight pattern you always will have to worry about missing in the unfavorable direction.

What do you think is the predominant green slope left to right, right to left, back to front, or front to back - or is it completely random? I would think back to front (backstop relative to an approach from center fairway) is likely the most frequent, but I don't have a lot of experience on many courses.

On this hole the pin is in a bit of a bowl / hemisphere, if it was centered in the bowl / hemisphere would a draw pattern (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve), fade pattern (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve), or 'straight' (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve) have a particular advantage?

23 minutes ago, Jakester23 said:

As of lately me to. How often do you miss right of your intended target? My miss since I started hitting a draw is mostly left. I used to hit a fade. When I miss hit my fade it would almost always over fade. Point being the miss at least from my experience tends to be consistently on one side of my shot shape. I'm not saying everyone is the same but that's why I'm asking your experience.

As an 11 HCP you have a relatively grooved swing. When you were first starting out how consistent was your fade? You never blocked it, never drew it by accident, never pulled it?

5 minutes ago, Big Lex said:

I miss left more often than I miss right. Probably 2-3:1 left misses, either hooks or straight-draws. Some pulls .  Very rare pull hook. 

Never block it? Sorry you covered that in the '1' part of your misses. 

Edited April 7, 2016 by natureboy

[SavvySwede]

2 minutes ago, natureboy said:

What do you think is the predominant green slope left to right, right to left, back to front, or front to back - or is it completely random? I would think back to front (backstop relative to an approach from center fairway) is likely the most frequent, but I don't have a lot of experience on many courses.

On this hole the pin is in a bit of a bowl / hemisphere, if it was centered in the bowl / hemisphere would a draw pattern (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve), fade pattern (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve), or 'straight' (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve) have a particular advantage?

I doubt any pattern would have an advantage for a pin in a bowl. But the pin in a bowl is about as easy as it gets so I don't think it's a great example for scoring.

[natureboy]

8 minutes ago, SavvySwede said:

I doubt any pattern would have an advantage for a pin in a bowl. But the pin in a bowl is about as easy as it gets so I don't think it's a great example for scoring.

You don't think you'd have to move your target even further off the pin for a draw or fade to allow for more roll-out from the side slope?

Edited April 7, 2016 by natureboy

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, natureboy said:

Now does playing a stock shape 95% of the time give you an advantage on accuracy if 50% of the slopes act as effective backstops to your shape and 50% act as effective downslopes?

It really doesn't matter as much for better players. Most of the time shots are slight draws or slight fades. It's just the nature of short and mid irons. So really the banks of the green don't matter. You just have to guess which way it will hop on the bounce. If you fade it with a slope then play it a tad more to account. It's not rocket science. 

11 minutes ago, natureboy said:

What do you think is the predominant green slope left to right, right to left, back to front, or front to back - or is it completely random? I would think back to front (backstop relative to an approach from center fairway) is likely the most frequent, but I don't have a lot of experience on many courses.

back to front primarily with some, maybe some go back left to front right or back right to front left. I rarely see the front to back type greens. 

13 minutes ago, natureboy said:

On this hole the pin is in a bit of a bowl / hemisphere, if it was centered in the bowl / hemisphere would a draw pattern (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve), fade pattern (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve), or 'straight' (with normal distribution in start line and amount of curve) have a particular advantage?

Bad example. I think the draw or fade would have the better advantage because you can curve it with the slope and have it bounce towards the pin. 

If you hit it at the pin and it curves away then it hits into the slope and bounces away from the pin. 

14 minutes ago, natureboy said:

As an 11 HCP you have a relatively grooved swing. When you were first starting out how consistent was your fade? You never blocked it, never drew it by accident, never pulled it?

When I first started out I hit a pull draw. I was consistent. I played a pull draw from scores of 100+ down to mid 80's. Golfers who slice are consistent in that they slice or that they pull the ball (they hit that random straight one). I play golf with a lot of high handicaps. They have a consistent shot shape, it's just extreme. 

 

[SavvySwede]

3 minutes ago, natureboy said:

You don't think you'd have to move your target off the pin for a draw or fade to allow for more roll-out from the side slopes?

Everything feeds towards the pin, you get an effectively larger target.

[Jakester23]

21 minutes ago, natureboy said:

As an 11 HCP you have a relatively grooved swing. When you were first starting out how consistent was your fade? You never blocked it, never drew it by accident, never pulled it?

I would rarely hit a push fade, never a draw, and I hit a million pulls. The pulls would just fade more and end up on or right of target.

[natureboy]

14 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

If you hit it at the pin and it curves away then it hits into the slope and bounces away from the pin.

Um maybe if you have a massive curve. If the 'straight pattern' player has a good swing with the same variance in dispersion as the fader or the drawer then the curve on his frequent errors is not going to be much and what I see the most when a shot is shaping into a bank especially on a high trajectory is that it tends to kill any momentum and stop the shot dead. So IMO the 'straight' guy has backstops for both his left and right errors.

Quote

When I first started out I hit a pull draw. I was consistent. I played a pull draw from scores of 100+ down to mid 80's. Golfers who slice are consistent in that they slice or that they pull the ball (they hit that random straight one). I play golf with a lot of high handicaps. They have a consistent shot shape, it's just extreme.

I've seen pro tournaments where a player who primarily fades the ball (with pro level swing consistency) hits a pull hook into a hazard because he stopped his body and his hands turned over. I would grant you it's a rarer miss but it's still part of the expected shot pattern and because his start line was closer to the hazard to begin with he opened himself to a smaller error of that type to put it in the hazard. For a guy playing a 'straight' pattern with the same pro-level swing consistency he would have had just as much chance of putting it in the hazard only it would have been a massive pull hook instead of a medium draw creating the penalty.

But for golfers with the same lateral dispersion pattern the shot in the hazard would be equally rare / equally expected just a different rare shape for each that finds the water based on the differing intended start line & shot shape.

Edited April 7, 2016 by natureboy

[Jakester23]

2 minutes ago, natureboy said:

I've seen pro tournaments where a player who primarily fades the ball (with pro level swing consistency) hits a pull hook into a hazard because he stopped his body and his hands turned over. 

How do you know this is actually what happened? Because Johnny Miller says so?

[natureboy]

12 minutes ago, SavvySwede said:

Everything feeds towards the pin, you get an effectively larger target.

A righty drawing the ball comes in from the right and has to plan for more roll-out on the shot since it's landing with the side slope and vice-versa for the fader, yes?

4 minutes ago, Jakester23 said:

How do you know this is actually what happened? Because Johnny Miller says so?

A guy known to play a fade pattern (yes a clue per the announcers - not always 100% accurate but confirmed by other commentators and Shot Tracer examples) aligns his stance left of center of fairway (another clue). Body stall and hands roll evidence via slow motion replay. Resultant shot shape via Shot Tracer.

[iacas]

None of this recent stuff is on topic, and if I can identify a point at which it went off topic, I'm going to split the topic.

The topic was "how to shape the ball," not a theoretical discussion over whether playing a stock curve is the right way to go.

[SavvySwede]

9 minutes ago, natureboy said:

A righty drawing the ball comes in from the right and has to plan for more roll-out on the shot since it's landing with the side slope and vice-versa for the fader, yes?

A guy known to play a fade pattern (yes a clue per the announcers - not always 100% accurate but confirmed by other commentators and Shot Tracer examples) aligns his stance left of center of fairway (another clue). Body stall and hands roll evidence via slow motion replay. Resultant shot shape via Shot Tracer.

It' would be rolling sideways toward the hole. That's what you want!!

[Golfingdad]

@natureboy, you might find this interesting.

[natureboy]

1 hour ago, Golfingdad said:

@natureboy, you might find this interesting.

If Duval was referencing DeChambeau's stated 'straight' stock shot being the issue with his poor tee shot on 18 yesterday. Sure, he hit a bad shot under pressure. Any player can hit a poor shot under pressure. If you were a righty playing a stock left to right fade on 18, to hit the same intended target that Bryson had with a 'straight' drive, your start line would be farther left than Bryson's, and if you had the same pressure related body stall error you'd likely put it in about the same place but with a pull rather than a pull-hook.

What's DeChambeau's total experience in Majors again? And yet he's T18 after playing the course three times in some very tough conditions with his 'stock straight'. Did Duval's preference for a single shape save him from hitting into trouble when his game deserted him and his total dispersion / shot variability increased?

I've seen plenty of guys on the Masters' broadcast who have overdone their shape right into trouble. Or on the back pin placement on 16 try to hit a draw when the hole begs for some momentum up into the slope (a more left to right approach) to help hold it.  A set shape is no guarantee of avoiding a hazard. Having a repeating, consistent swing with small errors is what matters. If choosing a shape frequency helps you do that great. I don't think it means you will automatically have a tighter shot dispersion than a player who approaches it like Bryson.

From what I've seen, Bubba works it both ways off the tee far more frequently than 90% / 10% in favor of a fade. He does this to maximize his fairway roll-out or positioning. He's #1 in SG driving. Others may not be able to emulate this approach, because they don't have his 'hands', but that doesn't mean Bubba is 'wrong'.

'Army golf'' (left, right, left right) is to me an indication that your overall swing variability has increased relative to your established 'stock' consistency and/or that you are overcompensating for prior errors on the subsequent shot. Say draw is your stock and you are overdrawing on the day because your swing is a little off. You shift your start line more right to compensate and the occasional block will put you on the right side - you total dispersion has increased because your swing is off. If you understand the normal distribution, like Bryson you can accept seeing different (slightly) than intended shapes so long as your lateral dispersion around the intended target is acceptable.

Bryson's already one under today, so I don't think his big misses yesterday have broken his confidence in his swing approach. What yesterday was for him was a learning experience on tee shot pressure when close to the lead. A body stall in a pressure situation seems to be a fairly common swing error and something he can be aware of and work on for the future.

Edited April 10, 2016 by natureboy