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what's the probability of making a putt <10 ft? <5? <2?

post #1 of 7
Thread Starter 

i am a fantastic lag putter and can usually drop the ball within 2ft probably 70% of the time, 15% of the time 5ft, and the rest within 10ft.  i am not an exceptional golfer with a 20hdcp so i can hit a GIR but don't expect it to be within 10ft often, so i rely on my lag putting. 


when it's 2ft i can make it 95% of the time, 5 feet goes to about 50%, and 10 feet is probably 25%.  thing is i'll practice my 3-5ft putts all day and make them 95% of the time, but when i get on the green during a round i get very tense and think, "well hell you HAVE to make this" and then i usually screw it up somehow.  it's like white coat syndrome when you have high BP in the doc's office (which ironically i also have)...it's one of those things that practicing doesn't really have an extremely beneficial effect on either.


anywho, just wondering what a 20hdcp should expect % wise to hole from distances of 10, 5, and 2 feet from the hole every time.  i have a feeling my percentages are way off.  shot a 92 today and counted up missed putts from 5 feet and/or rimmed putts and i had 7, 4 of the latter.  pissed me off something good, i was really ready to break that 90 mark!

post #2 of 7

This thread has some answers: http://thesandtrap.com/t/51757/pga-tour-putts-gained-make-percentage-stats/ .


Note that players make more putts on better greens so their percentages are likely a bit higher than most amateurs could get. That said, they're also not particularly AWESOME putters, nor is putting a skill that an average guy can't do better than a PGA Tour pro, so you've got that going for you, too. :)

post #3 of 7

If you look at strokes gained, the best putters are at 0.850 roughly, and the worst putters are at, -1.2, so basically there is a 2 stroke difference between the best putters and the worst putters. That isn't that much difference. 

post #4 of 7

In very rough terms:


PGA pros make 75% of all their 4 footers.

They make 50% of all their 8 footers.

They make 25% of all their 14 footers.


A good way to compare yourself to a tour pro is to take 4 balls to the practice green. Set them up at 4 feet.  Don't hit them along the same line. You should make 3 of 4 consistently. Do the same at 8 feet.  You should make 2 of 4.  At 14 feet, you should make 1 of 4.


I think you are fooling yourself about your lag putting. Only getting 70% within 2 feet is not all that good.  Shoot for getting at least 90% within 3 feet. And none should be more than 5 feet. None.  Constantly leaving your first putt more than 5 feet away is a formula for 3 putting, as you are finding out.

post #5 of 7

Re: what's the probability of making a putt

2 strokes isn't much?! That's 8 shots in a tournament.
post #6 of 7

Your thinking over 4 rounds, but lets say your going out with your friend to play a round of golf, you beat him by 2 strokes, and you happen to make 2 more putts than him. That isn't that much difference in putting ability. 


But when you look at strokes gained for driving and long game, your looking at a huge difference over a round of golf. Your talking about someone shooting 64 in the first round and someone shooting 72, yet only 2 strokes come from putting, weres the other 6 from? Majority of its the long game. 

post #7 of 7
Thread Starter 

well i think in terms of 3 putts.  if i 3 putt, that's 1 stroke i shouldn't have had.  period.  2 putts are okay, unless i chip within 5 feet and miss that first putt.  i can usually add up 4-5 times i 3 putt or 2 putt and should have only 1 putted.  to me that's 5 strokes i should not have had, or even if i half that number, that's better.


i played saturday and shot 91 and had the same story as when i posted this friday and shot a 92!  part of the reason it bothers me is because if i cleaned up half the bad putts i had in both rounds, i could have had two rounds in the 80s!  had i shot 95 both days, 2-3 strokes wouldn't be eating away at my soul so much :)

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