Your Charlie Woods Odds

[iacas]

So, Charlie impressed people at the PNC, and social media is fawning, and odds are being set on Charlie winning majors and all sorts of hooey.

I'm in the camp that there are probably 1,000 (if not more) 11-year-olds better than he is. Sure, he has a lot of advantages, but being Tiger's kid is going to be disadvantageous, too.

So, here are some odds. Set them with what YOU think they are. Realistically. Here's the list, and they are the "Odds that Charlie Woods…"

1. … plays for a top-quartile D1 program in college.
2. … ever plays in a PGA Tour event (even if by sponsor's exemption).
3. … earns a PGA Tour card.
4. … wins on the PGA Tour.
5. … wins a major.
6. … never tries to play professional golf.

Quote that selection and reply with your numbered list after that. I'll reply with mine later on after some votes get in between this OP and when I can post.

[Darkfrog]

  On 12/22/2020 at 10:31 PM, iacas said:

… plays for a top-quartile D1 program in college.

… ever plays in a PGA Tour event (even if by sponsor's exemption).

… earns a PGA Tour card.

… wins on the PGA Tour.

… wins a major.

… never tries to play professional golf.

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I literally know nothing about evaluating the talent of junior golfers. My responses are just uneducated guesses. I may be way off here.

-500 … plays for a top-quartile D1 program in college.

I don't know how good he actually is compared to peers in his age group. He looks seems pretty good to me, and being Tiger Woods's kid gives him access to the best coaches/equipment/training tools/etc, so I'm sure if wants to continue with golf, he will have every advantage to make the most of his natural ability. If he's on the fringe of being good enough for top college programs, I wonder if being TW's kid gets him on the team for the sake of publicity/recognition. I think he's got a good shot at this.

+100 … ever plays in a PGA Tour event (even if by sponsor's exemption).

Seems like most of the players who get sponsor exemption are already pretty good, and likely on their way to some level of professional career. This seems like a tough milestone to predict for an 11 year old kid.

+300 … earns a PGA Tour card.

I think the chances of him being among the best of professional golfers are pretty low.

+500 … wins on the PGA Tour.

It's hard to do this, even for the best of the best.

+1000 … wins a major.

Being TW's kid doesn't make him a generational talent.

-1000 … never tries to play professional golf.

I think this is what happens. Does this statement age like milk, or wine.

[iacas]

Since we got two replies and neither of them set the odds, I'll start:

  On 12/22/2020 at 10:31 PM, iacas said:

1. … plays for a top-quartile D1 program in college.
2. … ever plays in a PGA Tour event (even if by sponsor's exemption).
3. … earns a PGA Tour card.
4. … wins on the PGA Tour.
5. … wins a major.
6. … never tries to play professional golf.

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1. 7/1 (some team will probably take a flier on him even if he's not great)
2. 10/1 (especially if 1 occurs)
3. 750/1
4. 1000/1 (if he's good enough to do #3, the odds of #4 are not too far off)
5. 2000/1
6. 5/1 (Unless he is super competitive and wants to do it… I'd stay away. He'll certainly be well set in life.)

[saevel25]

  On 12/22/2020 at 10:31 PM, iacas said:

So, here are some odds. Set them with what YOU think they are. Realistically. Here's the list, and they are the "Odds that Charlie Woods…"

1. … plays for a top-quartile D1 program in college.
2. … ever plays in a PGA Tour event (even if by sponsor's exemption).
3. … earns a PGA Tour card.
4. … wins on the PGA Tour.
5. … wins a major.
6. … never tries to play professional golf.

Quote that selection and reply with your numbered list after that. I'll reply with mine later on after some votes get in between this OP and when I can post.

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Man, I messed up my first post. 😇

1) 3/1
2) 6/1
3) 50/1
4) 250/1
5) 1500/1
6) 2/1

[Bonvivant]

  On 12/22/2020 at 11:33 PM, Darkfrog said:

+100 … ever plays in a PGA Tour event (even if by sponsor's exemption).

Seems like most of the players who get sponsor exemption are already pretty good, and likely on their way to some level of professional career. This seems like a tough milestone to predict for an 11 year old kid.

+300 … earns a PGA Tour card.

I think the chances of him being among the best of professional golfers are pretty low.

+500 … wins on the PGA Tour.

It's hard to do this, even for the best of the best.

+1000 … wins a major.

Being TW's kid doesn't make him a generational talent.

-1000 … never tries to play professional golf.

I think this is what happens. Does this statement age like milk, or wine.

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I'm not sure that you understand American betting odds.....you just gave him a 3/1 odds that he makes the tour, and 5 to 1 that he wins on tour. If you meant for these to be an order of magnitude more (or 2) it would make more sense. 10 to 1 that he wins a major, I'd pretty much stake myself as the house right now on the one (not really, but you get the point).

I'll do both odds systems for mine.

1.) +500 (5/1) for playing D1

2.) +1200 (12/1) tour event played

3.) +7500 (75/1) for a tour card

4.) +10k (100/1) for a win on tour. I figure if he gets the tour card, he will most likely win one.

5.) +150k (1.5K/1) majors are hard AF to win.

6.) +850 (8.5/1) After this weekend he may have caught some sort of bug to play competitively long term (or maybe the opposite). I think this is in line with my tour card line, as the ratio is 8.8ish. I think that if he truly gives it a run, qschool, KFT or other tours, etc, his chance of making it to the big leagues is somewhere between 10-15%

Edited December 23, 2020 by Bonvivant
edited number 4

[Darkfrog]

  On 12/23/2020 at 3:17 AM, Bonvivant said:

I'm not sure that you understand American betting odds

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Agreed, I have no clue about odds/gambling (well not entirely true, I understand how odds work in general, but I'm not a betting person, so I don't have a mind for evaluating odds at a glance). All I know is that in the +/- odds system a negative number is a more likely outcome (for betting purposes). I wasn't too concerned with the actual odds, I just wanted to illustrate that I was confident that #1 would happen (D1 college), and that #5 (winning a major) was a longshot.

[Bonvivant]

  On 12/23/2020 at 4:01 AM, Darkfrog said:

Agreed, I have no clue about odds/gambling (well not entirely true, I understand how odds work in general, but I'm not a betting person, so I don't have a mind for evaluating odds at a glance). All I know is that in the +/- odds system a negative number is a more likely outcome (for betting purposes). I wasn't too concerned with the actual odds, I just wanted to illustrate that I was confident that #1 would happen (D1 college), and that #5 (winning a major) was a longshot.

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For sure. I think you meant 10 or 100x what you posted. +100 is a 1/1 bet (spend 100 to potentially win 100 if your bet comes true), -1000 means bet 1000 to win 100. American odds are pretty weird, and always go off of the betting amount of 100 dollars, where you would think it would be 1 dollar.

[colin007]

IDK the odds, but I would absolutely MURDER orphaned baby refugee unicorns to get into a position like this

 

 

[iacas]

  On 12/23/2020 at 2:23 PM, colin007 said:

IDK the odds, but I would absolutely MURDER orphaned baby refugee unicorns to get into a position like this

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You can't stand there with your weight slightly favoring your right foot and your right hand kinda massaging the left pinkie knuckle?

Or did you mean Charlie?

[TourSpoon]

If he has any talent at all he will go D1 just for the namesake and everything that comes with it. CW will go to the high school that Jack built and Jack was sooooo generous with the facilities sending all his kids and grandkids there playing all the sports available. Tiger followed suit sending both kids there for gradeschool. Jack's grandson had serious football talent and FSU always leveraged the Nichlaus connection so this won't be any different.Anyway, here is my prediction. 

1.  If CW plays for Benjamin, can get to scratch, and has a respectable academic record he will go to Stanford and play just like his daddy. If he wants to stay in Florida its a toss up between FSU and UF.  Odds are 3:1 given the conditions and at scratch he will have to fight to play. 

2. If he is number 1 or 2 in college, he will play an event on the PGA Tour on a sponsors exemption as an amateur. 5:1 

3. 200:1

4. 500:1

5. 2,000:1

6. 5:1 (unless he eats, breaths, and sleeps golf, this could be a likely outcome). 

 

[Bonvivant]

  On 12/23/2020 at 2:23 PM, colin007 said:

IDK the odds, but I would absolutely MURDER orphaned baby refugee unicorns to get into a position like this

 

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The only thing you would be murdering is your back. These crazy twisted up positions look really cool and generate tons of power, but they also generate tons of potential problems.

Also I just realized that the last question (6) was phrased in the negative. I think that his chances of trying the pro game are 8.5 to one, so this question for me would be -850 american odds for me. I'd bet 8.5 dollars to win 1 that he doesn't go for a pro route.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Bonvivant

[badatputt]

  On 12/22/2020 at 10:31 PM, iacas said:

So, Charlie impressed people at the PNC, and social media is fawning, and odds are being set on Charlie winning majors and all sorts of hooey.

I'm in the camp that there are probably 1,000 (if not more) 11-year-olds better than he is. Sure, he has a lot of advantages, but being Tiger's kid is going to be disadvantageous, too.

So, here are some odds. Set them with what YOU think they are. Realistically. Here's the list, and they are the "Odds that Charlie Woods…"

1. … plays for a top-quartile D1 program in college.
2. … ever plays in a PGA Tour event (even if by sponsor's exemption).
3. … earns a PGA Tour card.
4. … wins on the PGA Tour.
5. … wins a major.
6. … never tries to play professional golf.

Quote that selection and reply with your numbered list after that. I'll reply with mine later on after some votes get in between this OP and when I can post.

Expand  

My opinion:

1. 5/1

2. 8/1

3. 50/1

4. 60/1 (If he makes it to tour, he'll likely win)

5.120/1

6. 2/1

[colin007]

  On 12/24/2020 at 7:01 AM, Bonvivant said:

The only thing you would be murdering is your back. These crazy twisted up positions look really cool and generate tons of power, but they also generate tons of potential problems.

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Eh, I don't necessarily agree, primarily since I don't think any swing that generates even a moderate amount of power is stressless

My swing envy is primarily the hips open, the arms in front of the chest and not being dragged behind, and no semblance of a flip anywhere. Just gorgeous.