NCAA Football 2023

[StuM]

10 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Even though OSU was better on 3rd down than UM

UM crushed it with 4th & Short conversions. I think that offset much of OSUs 3rd Down Conversion Success.  

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, StuM said:

UM crushed it with 4th & Short conversions. I think that offset much of OSUs 3rd Down Conversion Success.  

OSU lost, again. It’s a hard pill for the B1G to just accept they ain’t got it. Numbers mean nothing compared to the final head to head result. Done. Period. My teams got humiliated. They’re out. I’m not gonna go talk about how good they are as a non-championship winning team. Sheesh.

[StuM]

1 minute ago, Vinsk said:

OSU lost, again. It’s a hard pill for the B1G to just accept they ain’t got it. Numbers mean nothing compared to the final head to head result. Done. Period. My teams got humiliated. They’re out. I’m not gonna go talk about how good they are as a non-championship winning team. Sheesh.

I’m not disputing the loss, just commented that UM’s success on 4th & short conversions helped UM and offset any advantage for OSU from 3rd down conversions.

[klineka]

28 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

OSU lost, again. It’s a hard pill for the B1G to just accept they ain’t got it. 

How are these two things related? Someone had to win and lose that game, I'm not sure how the outcome of that game negatively affects the conference?

 

 

27 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I’m not gonna go talk about how good they are as a non-championship winning team. Sheesh.

Who has done that in this thread? (Specifically within the last few days since Saturday afternoon)

[ChetlovesMer]

57 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I’m not gonna go talk about how good they are as a non-championship winning team. Sheesh.

Do I understand correctly? If they don't win the title then the season isn't successful? 

[saevel25]

52 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

OSU lost, again. It’s a hard pill for the B1G to just accept they ain’t got it. Numbers mean nothing compared to the final head to head result. Done. Period. My teams got humiliated. They’re out. I’m not gonna go talk about how good they are as a non-championship winning team. Sheesh.

Yes, at the end of the day win-loss matters the most. Yes they are out. 

Yes, you can still talk about how good a team they. How you perform against your record, especially top 10 teams matter. 

Team A - 9-3 record, but all three losses are by 21+ points against top 10 teams. 
Team B - 9-3 record, but all three losses are by less than 7 points against top 10 teams. 

Which one is closer to be a program to get over the hump and contend? You can absolutely gleam where a program is at looking at the numbers. So, according to you, there is no use in talking about either of these teams, they are trash. They should burn the program down and restart?

 

[StuM]

What is your CFP Chaos scenario?

There are several things that can cause chaos in the CFP this year.  I'm going to point out one scenario.  I'm curious what other scenarios you see out there and also what you think about the scenario below.

Chaos Scenario: Next Week Alabama beats Georgia, Texas beats Oklahoma State, Michigan beats Iowa, Washington beats Oregon & Florida State beats Louisville.  

I would rank as follows: #1 = MI, #2 = WA, #3 = AL and #4 = FL-State. 

MI & WAs would both be undefeated conference champions with 3-0 records vs current top 25 opponents (based on 11/21 CFP Rankings).  I know WA would actually be 4-0 but two of the wins would be against the same team, Oregon. 

AL would be 12-1 Conference champion with a 4-1 record against the top 25.

#4 is where I struggled and I can make a case for Georgia, Texas & Florida State.  FL-State is undefeated conference champion and 3-0 vs Top 25 teams but is on a backup QB.  Both TX and GA are 3-1 vs Top 25 and TX beat AL.  So who do I give the edge?  For me undefeated conference champion gives it to Florida State.

Interested to hear thoughts on above and also other chaos scenarios that may happen.

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by StuM
Corrected that AL would be Conference Champion, not "Conference Change"

[Vinsk]

2 hours ago, ChetlovesMer said:

Do I understand correctly? If they don't win the title then the season isn't successful? 

For OSU? Correct. Why the hell would there be any discussion of Day’s job if people didn’t see it that way?

[StuM]

8 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

For OSU? Correct. Why the hell would there be any discussion of Day’s job if people didn’t see it that way?

Because the media wants to create a story so they can get views.

[saevel25]

For the OSU Fans, you really want FSU to lose to Louisville, Texas to fall to Ok. State, and Wash to beat Oregon, and Georgia to beat Alabama. I am pretty sure, FSU without their star QB, will be bumped down below OSU who played UM in a tight game. Oregon would have 2-losses, Alabama would have 2-losses, Texas would have 2-losses. This would be clearest way OSU makes it in at the 4th spot again. 

For complete chaos and making the CFB committee lose their minds. 

Georgia loses, UM loses, Washington loses, FSU loses, Texas wins. This would make it so there are no undefeated teams and eight 1-loss teams. You would end up with the following. 

Alabama (SEC champ)
Georgia (SEC runner-up)
UM (B1G runner-up)
Wash (Pac-12 runner-up)
Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
Texas (B12 champ)
FSU (ACC Runner-up)
OSU (B1G 2nd best team)

You rank it, Alabama, Oregon, Texas, then good luck? Probably Georgia or UM get's in. Maybe not so difficult. 

8 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

For OSU? Correct. Why the hell would there be any discussion of Day’s job if people didn’t see it that way?

Only one HC from OSU has gotten fired not being elite. That was Earle Bruce. Others either got fired for not doing well against UM, off the field issues, or health reasons. 

The talk is getting rid of Day because of UM beating OSU. It has nothing to do with anything else. Day is in the situation where his teams are competing at an elite level. They have been a top 5 teams the past 5 seasons. They made the CFB Playoff 3 of the last 5 years. Their recruiting classes finish in the top 5 more years than not. 

You know, people don't want to contextualize. 

 

 

[StuM]

9 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

For complete chaos and making the CFB committee lose their minds. 

Georgia loses, UM loses, Washington loses, FSU loses, Texas wins. This would make it so there are no undefeated teams and eight 1-loss teams. You would end up with the following. 

Alabama (SEC champ)
Georgia (SEC runner-up)
UM (B1G runner-up)
Wash (Pac-12 runner-up)
Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
Texas (B12 champ)
FSU (ACC Runner-up)
OSU (B1G 2nd best team)

You rank it, Alabama, Oregon, Texas, then good luck? Probably Georgia or UM get's in. Maybe not so difficult. 

That would be a big mess.  I see Oregon as conf champ but then what do you do with Washington.  They beat Oregon earlier in year and only loss would be to Oregon.  So who gets the spot? Could also makr a case for Georgia, Washington, & Michigan. 

[saevel25]

OMG, Iowa's offense is so bad, and UM's defense is so good that this one project has Iowa scoring NEGATIVE 1 points! 

 

[ChetlovesMer]

34 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

OMG, Iowa's offense is so bad, and UM's defense is so good that this one project has Iowa scoring NEGATIVE 1 points! 

 

I could see -6 points happening. 

Let's say Iowa scores no points on offense but also throws a pick-6. 👍😁👍

[saevel25]

Some clarity after last night's rankings. Alabama is not in a good spot. I question if they even win their SEC title game that they would jump to #4. 

For Ohio State, they probably need Georgia to win, UM to win, Washington to Win, and FSU to lose. That would be the clearest path. If Alabama wins, I am not sure they jump up above OSU. This might be a year where an SEC champ does not make it. 

[DeadMan]

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

For Ohio State, they probably need Georgia to win, UM to win, Washington to Win, and FSU to lose.

You want Texas to lose, too. I'm not sure OSU gets in over Texas. Texas would have a conference championship, arguably a better win (I know what SP+ says about Penn State, but I don't think Penn State is a top 5 team), and definitely a better out of conference win. 

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

This might be a year where an SEC champ does not make it. 

I doubt it. I think there's a better chance of both Bama and Georgia making it than both of them being left out.

[saevel25]

44 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

I doubt it. I think there's a better chance of both Bama and Georgia making it than both of them being left out.

If Georgia loses, UM wins, Washington Wins, FSU wins. Georgia is not getting in. For two SEC teams to get in, you would need Washington and probably FSU to lose. 

44 minutes ago, DeadMan said:

You want Texas to lose, too. I'm not sure OSU gets in over Texas. Texas would have a conference championship, arguably a better win (I know what SP+ says about Penn State, but I don't think Penn State is a top 5 team), and definitely a better out of conference win. 

Compared to previous years metrics and history, PSU has done what it's needed to be considered a top 10 teams, maybe boarder line top 5 team. They crush teams outside the top 25, which top 10, or top 5 teams do. Their only two loses are by less than 10 points to two top 5 teams. 

Lets take the average of OSU and UM SP+, 28-ish. Minus the 8 points they lost by, puts them around 20-ish. So, that is ranked 8th in the nation. Probably not top 5, but most likely top 10. 

[DeadMan]

13 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

If Georgia loses, UM wins, Washington Wins, FSU wins. Georgia is not getting in.

Bama gets in in this scenario. I know where they're ranked now, but they'll get in if they beat Georgia.

14 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Compared to previous years metrics and history, PSU has done what it's needed to be considered a top 10 teams, maybe boarder line top 5 team. They crush teams outside the top 25, which top 10, or top 5 teams do. Their only two loses are by less than 10 points to two top 5 teams. 

Lets take the average of OSU and UM SP+, 28-ish. Minus the 8 points they lost by, puts them around 20-ish. So, that is ranked 8th in the nation. Probably not top 5, but most likely top 10. 

Yes, but this is where I think just using these metrics falls short. In both games, PSU had an end of game drive that make the score look closer than it actually was in both of those games. The Michigan game was a 4th down stop away from being something like 30-7 instead of what the final score was. And while I like SP+, there are definitely some flaws to it. It has consistently overrated Big Ten West defenses, as just one example to pull.

But the point remains that Texas' best win with Alabama is comparable to @OSU's best win, which is Penn State.

[StuM]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

If Georgia loses, UM wins, Washington Wins, FSU wins. Georgia is not getting in. For two SEC teams to get in, you would need Washington and probably FSU to lose.

I think for both Georgia & Alabama to be in the playoffs Alabama needs to win a close game over Georgia and Michigan & Washington win (WA knocks out Oregon and Iowa is not in the running to begin with) then both FS and Texas need to lose.  In that scenario the question becomes Georgia or OSU for the 4th spot.  I think it would go to Georgia (But would wish for OSU).

I think the only path for OSU to get in is for Georgia, Michigan & Washington to win out, effectively knocking Oregon & Alabama out.  Then FSU and TX need to lose.  I think a 1 loss OSU gets the call over a 1 loss FSU.

It is never good to be reliant on other teams losing for you to advance.  OSU is not in a good spot and needs good fortune to get in.