Best Golfer Without a Major: 2023 Post-Majors Edition

[PatrickMurtha]

With the end of another majors season, it is time to re-visit that perennial topic, Best Golfer Without a Major (who still has a good chance at one). 

At the top of the list must be Rickie Fowler (13 Top 10s in majors) and Xander Schauffele (11). I still don’t think the major win will ever happen for Rickie, despite his resurgence this year. Xander, maybe 40/60 odds.

Others in the discussion: 

 

Patrick Cantlay (4) 

Tony Finau (10) - I don’t think this is ever going to happen for Tony, either.

Will Zalatoris (6) - We don’t know about his recovery yet.

Viktor Hovland (3) - 60/40?

Cameron Young (4) - Obviously golfs well in majors, but it would be nice if he got a VICTORY first. 

Tommy Fleetwood (7) - In the Schauffele / Finau / Cantlay group.

Tom Kim (1) - Up and comer, time will tell. 

 

Min Woo Lee (1) and Sungjae Im (2) are both young (25 this year) and talented, might be worth citing here. Sam Burns and Joaquin Niemann do not have Top 10s in a major yet. Robert MacIntyre (2), age 27, would have his best shot at The Open. 

I am skeptical of the chances of Corey Conners (3) , Max Homa (1), Thomas Pieters (2), Branden Grace (6), and Tyrrell Hatton (5).

Daniel Berger (4) may be finished because of injuries. Harris English (3) could pull off a Gary Woodland-type victory, though it’s improbable. Is Sepp Straka (2), age 30, a late bloomer?

Am I forgetting anyone? Of the 22 names I have mentioned here, I think Hovland is the most likely next to grab a major. 

[snapfade]

Tom Kim I think has a major in his future. I don't think he will win the best without a major category but one to watch next year. How long did Tom Kite go before winning the US Open in '92?

[PatrickMurtha]

I think Tom Kim is just great, and I hope he doesn’t fade away as a certain number of these phenoms always do (Matthew Wolff, Anthony Kim, Matteo Manassero, Ryo Ishikawa). 

As for Tom Kite or Darren Clarke winning their first majors at age 42, I don’t think we’re going to see much of that kind of thing anymore. Not to say that it can’t happen, but as Brian Harman noted yesterday, there’s too much pressure from the younger guys. 

[PatrickMurtha]

Something I like about Tom Kim is that he can do stuff that would be douchey or obnoxious if anyone else tried it, and from him it’s charming. Personality to burn. 

[klineka]

3 hours ago, PatrickMurtha said:

With the end of another majors season, it is time to re-visit that perennial topic, Best Golfer Without a Major (who still has a good chance at one). 

At the top of the list must be Rickie Fowler (13 Top 10s in majors) and Xander Schauffele (11). I still don’t think the major win will ever happen for Rickie, despite his resurgence this year. Xander, maybe 40/60 odds.

Others in the discussion: 

 

Patrick Cantlay (4) 

Tony Finau (10) - I don’t think this is ever going to happen for Tony, either.

Tommy Fleetwood (7) - In the Schauffele / Finau / Cantlay group.

Why don't you think Xander, Cantlay, Finau, or Fleetwood will win a major? I think any of those players are plenty capable. 

3 hours ago, PatrickMurtha said:

I am skeptical of the chances of Corey Conners (3) , Max Homa (1), Thomas Pieters (2), Branden Grace (6), and Tyrrell Hatton (5).

I know he just got his first ever top 10 in a major but I think that's a big disservice to Homa to include him in the same grouping as all of those players. 

Hatton is the only one close to Homa from that list. Homa is 7th in the OWGR and 13th in Data Golf's rankings.

Here is everyone else from that sentence

Conners 30th OWGR, 28th Data Golf

Pieters 73 OWGR, 93th Data Golf

Grace 421 OWGR, 90th Data Golf

Hatton 13 OWGR, 6th Data Golf

What makes you skeptical of Homa? He's been at or inside the top 25 overall strokes gained for nearly all of the last 2 seasons per Data Golf. 

[Beastie]

Are we including guys whose time is most likely been and gone, but are still playing. I would say Matt Kuchar and Lee Westwood were in this group for a long time, but are obviously getting a bit long in the tooth. 
Hovland certainly has the game to win at major venues. He gets my vote.

[PatrickMurtha]

On Homa, you said it yourself: Only one Top 10 in a major, and he’s 33 this year. Of his 17 appearances in majors, he has missed the cut in nine. Yes, he has been playing well this decade, but I don’t yet see enough evidence that he’s a majors contender. I’d be happy to be wrong; he’s a fun player and presence. 

As for the “Schauffele group”, of course they are capable, I just have a hunch they will not make it. There are always going to be some who find the most glittering prizes elusive (Ian Poulter comes to mind). Again, I would be happy to be wrong; I have nothing against any of those guys. 

And they are all on my list of 22 most-likelies, even given my skepticism. Of course, this year we had two major winners who probably wouldn’t have been on anyone’s most likely list at the start of the season. 🙂

16 minutes ago, Beastie said:

Are we including guys whose time is most likely been and gone, but are still playing. I would say Matt Kuchar and Lee Westwood were in this group for a long time, but are obviously getting a bit long in the tooth. 
Hovland certainly has the game to win at major venues. He gets my vote.

Yes, I think of Westwood, Kuchar, Poulter, Donald, Casey, Leishman in a different group, “most likely been and gone” as you say. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by PatrickMurtha

[PatrickMurtha]

To maybe state the obvious, to rack up multiple Top 10s in majors (and the Players), you have to be a GREAT player on the HARDEST courses against the TOUGHEST fields. Xander and Rickie and Tony clearly have this touch; they just haven’t been lucky. Max Homa - I’m not sure. Someone who clearly doesn’t have this touch is Billy Horschel, who only has one major Top 10 (T4, 2013 US Open), and I know it frustrates the hell out of him, but there it is. 

[klineka]

45 minutes ago, PatrickMurtha said:

On Homa, you said it yourself: Only one Top 10 in a major, and he’s 33 this year. Of his 17 appearances in majors, he has missed the cut in nine. Yes, he has been playing well this decade, but I don’t yet see enough evidence that he’s a majors contender. I’d be happy to be wrong; he’s a fun player and presence. 

I just don't think it's justified to put him in the same sentence as guys like Pieters and Grace. Hatton and maybe even Conners sure, but not the other two. Homa is a better golfer than they are by a wide margin.

 

 

[PatrickMurtha]

That Homa is much better than Branden Grace NOW is unquestionable. But you know, back in 2017-2018, I considered Grace one of the most likely to break through to a major. He had five major Top 10s between 2015 and 2017, and was winning a lot between multiple tours. It was his moment, but it passed. That kind of passage only becomes clear in retrospect. 

[GolfLug]

Rory? 😜

[PatrickMurtha]

I don’t know about anyone else, but I grow weary of the “Rory Watch”. Four majors is plenty for any man; some veterans would kill to have one WIN. And gee, the man won a tournament (checks notes), ah yes, 10 days ago. But every major, the media milk the Rory Watch, and maybe he will get another, he has seven Top 10s in the last eight majors, it’s impressive. But at some level, I don’t really care, in part because it is made to sound so sad. It’s not in the least sad. I’m supposed to feel bad for a zillionaire Hall of Famer because he doesn’t have MORE? Save your tears. 🙄

Edited July 25, 2023 by PatrickMurtha

[GolfLug]

Why grow weary of Rory watch? It's would be nice to see a generational talent deliver on the promise. Sorry, four majors ain't enough especially followed by a nine year drought and counting. 

Nobody is sad for him but if I go to a high end restaurant, I'm hoping for the signature steak. 

On topic, it's gotta be Xander, Cantlay, Young and Hovland. About time for them. I think Young stands out. One these weeks he will land on a course that agrees with his putter.

[PatrickMurtha]

Oh, Rory’s great, but he might stall at four because the competition has gotten ridiculous. And he gets micro-analyzed more than any other player, both as a golfer and as a person, to the extent that he himself must get so tired of it. If Rahm or Scheffler or Koepka has a bad round or tournament, the media don’t go all to pieces. But if Rory hits a single bad SHOT, cue endless stories about “What’s the matter with Rory?” Even when he wins, they make it sound like he’s losing. And that’s why I get tired of it. 

[iacas]

Rory post-2014.

On 7/24/2023 at 1:50 PM, PatrickMurtha said:

At the top of the list must be Rickie Fowler (13 Top 10s in majors) and Xander Schauffele (11).

Post-2014 Rory has 20. Nearly double second-place on your list.

Ten of them are top-fives.

[GolfLug]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

Post-2014 Rory has 20. 

Hence.... Rory watch, not because of media fuss. He is so friggin close so friggin many times. There is also a strong recency bias of high finishes unlike Ricky or whoever for that matter.

[Carl3]

8 hours ago, GolfLug said:

media fuss

"Fuss" does not adequately describe the situation. Every 3 years, $100,000,000 is put in Rory's pocket by corporations. These same corporations advertise in the media that cover golf. These corporations want their boy to pay off for them. So, the media will be pulling for the boys that the corporations have bet on because these corporations are the source of their livelihood too. 

There are people who get paid to pick the right golfers to bet on. A big winner was Under Armor with Jordan Speith who signed an $80M deal before he won big. If you are the person who convinced management to bet on a loser (someone who did not pan out as expected), you will probably need to find a new job.

[snapfade]

1 hour ago, Carl3 said:

"Fuss" does not adequately describe the situation. Every 3 years, $100,000,000 is put in Rory's pocket by corporations. These same corporations advertise in the media that cover golf. These corporations want their boy to pay off for them. So, the media will be pulling for the boys that the corporations have bet on because these corporations are the source of their livelihood too. 

There are people who get paid to pick the right golfers to bet on. A big winner was Under Armor with Jordan Speith who signed an $80M deal before he won big. If you are the person who convinced management to bet on a loser (someone who did not pan out as expected), you will probably need to find a new job.

Guy that sells now sells used cars in El Paso: "I think we should really pour everything in to this Ty Tryon guy, he's going to be big."