Is This Club Blatantly Sandbagging?

[Ty_Webb]

34 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

I'm on the side of thinking that something is not right here and should be reviewed.

Let say that their course rating is pretty low, so their index is higher than it should be. But if they always play at their home course they are probably going to play bad away from home so it should even that advantage out or at least lower it down. 
Also you can say that they are amazing players under pressure and very skilled in match play format, but at the end of the day variance and luck is always going to play a big role between 2 players of similar handicap.

Let's assume that player A have 75% chance of winning a match over player B that only have 25%, there is no way that a player's skill in match play can make such a difference in a match outcome but I prefer to use a number that is hard to argue. (For me.. 60/40, or 65/35 at most)

The odds of winning 21 straight matches with that  generous odds are less than 1% (or 1 in 420). Is this proof that they are "cheating" or something, of course not but is evidence enough to note that something is not right and should be reviewed further.     

They're playing 16 games in each match though. Don't need much of an advantage before that number of players significantly loads things in their favor. The other team has to win 8.5 games to beat them. At a 65/35 split, that's a lot and pretty unlikely (about 10% of the time).

[iacas]

30 minutes ago, billchao said:

Why does the second sentence have to be true? If they're used to playing a tough course that's improperly rated, they're going to both have inflated indexes and have higher skills relative to them. If their home course features a variety of different challenges, I don't see why their game wouldn't travel well.

And on the flip side, some courses and their members take pride in how hard their course is and how tough it's rated, and that bit of vanity ends up hurting them in these kinds of competitions.

Oakmont fields a fierce roster and would be VERY tough to beat in something like this.

[billchao]

2 minutes ago, iacas said:

Oakmont fields a fierce roster and would be VERY tough to beat in something like this.

I don't think anyone would suggest that Oakmont's CR is for vanity. I meant to write "could end up hurting them."

If a golf course is just legitimately hard, it's going to spit out hardened golfers.

[iacas]

4 minutes ago, billchao said:

I don't think anyone would suggest that Oakmont's CR is for vanity. I meant to write "could end up hurting them."

If a golf course is just legitimately hard, it's going to spit out hardened golfers.

I was agreeing with you/jumping off from there.

[billchao]

3 minutes ago, iacas said:

I was agreeing with you/jumping off from there.

Ah ok I misunderstood. But you did bring to light an oversight on my part.

[Ty_Webb]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

Oakmont fields a fierce roster and would be VERY tough to beat in something like this.

Very much so. I think the intimidation factor that a lot of people feel playing against someone who's actually very good is significant. I know that Winged Foot pride themselves on the strength of the club. I think they have something like 40-50 players who are plus something. Club championships there are pretty competitive. Can't imagine Oakmont isn't similar. The more I think about this, the more likely it seems that this club is legit. Winning also breeds confidence and I'm sure the other clubs when they play this one are expecting to lose - that can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Teelahnal]

Having played them and been in their ‘pod’ for several years, the answer is 100% they are cheating. One example is Ray Munoz, his Home avg differential is 8 his tournament and away tournament differential is 3. He hasnt shot better than 78H in any round over the past 3 years and hasnt shot worse than 78 in any tournament round in the last 3 years. He has never lost an individual teamplay match. Literally never.

[iacas]

5 minutes ago, Teelahnal said:

Having played them and been in their ‘pod’ for several years, the answer is 100% they are cheating. One example is Ray Munoz, his Home avg differential is 8 his tournament and away tournament differential is 3. He hasnt shot better than 78H in any round over the past 3 years and hasnt shot worse than 78 in any tournament round in the last 3 years. He has never lost an individual teamplay match. Literally never.

Finally, some data. Just one person though, and the only Ray Munoz in GHIN in California is a 26.3 index (and the other four are listed as NH and are in other states).

[Teelahnal]

Sorry, Raymond Munoz

[iacas]

14 minutes ago, Teelahnal said:

Sorry, Raymond Munoz

Well, he's listed as a 5.2 index. He has a CA score that's a 6.7 as his most recent score, an Away score that's a 5.9, a CH 63/16 that's a 1.4, a 62/15 that's a 4.0, a 63/15 that's a 5.7, a 70/17 that's a 4.5…

So… there's a little bit there, but I wouldn't say that's enough to be super damning. I don't care about averages, as averages are often about 3 over one's actual index. Your average is higher than your index by about three strokes, or more, I'd imagine.

But again, at least you gave some info.

[Teelahnal]

Yes but people historically play worse in tournaments. Every score he has ever posted at home is worse than every single tournament round. This is going back years. 
in addition, if his index was based purely on Home scores, he would be an 8. If it is based on purely teamplay rounds he is like a 2 (again over the last few years). That is literally impossible

Edited June 2, 2024 by Teelahnal

[iacas]

16 minutes ago, Teelahnal said:

Yes but people historically play worse in tournaments.

Not all.

And if you think you have something here, point it out to whoever is in charge of the competition.

[Teelahnal]

We have 🙂 and we are no longer in their ‘pod’, this last season it was just them and 1 other team because everyone else refuses to play with them. Oh well, if people are able to cheat, they will cheat 🤷‍♂️

[billchao]

54 minutes ago, Teelahnal said:

Yes but people historically play worse in tournaments.

Eh I don’t think that’s true. I’m still trying to figure out how I managed to win my last tournament because I haven’t played to that level since.

[Teelahnal]

3 minutes ago, billchao said:

Eh I don’t think that’s true. I’m still trying to figure out how I managed to win my last tournament because I haven’t played to that level since.

Yes, but you have not played well in 100 consecutive tournaments like this person has. That is the point lol, I do not mean people play worse every tournamemt, but to not have one tournament round in 3+ years higher than ANY regular home posted round….is impossible.

[Hardspoon]

On 4/24/2024 at 1:34 PM, p1n9183 said:

The odds of winning 21 straight matches with that  generous odds are less than 1% (or 1 in 420). Is this proof that they are "cheating" or something, of course not but is evidence enough to note that something is not right and should be reviewed further.     

I know this thread isn’t based on statistics, but this kind of logic doesn’t work when applied to a single specific case.

First of all, these aren’t independent events, like a coin flip. You can’t just multiply the odds. 

Second, we are only discussing this case BECAUSE it’s unusual. If something (“Team X wins 21 times in a row”) has a one-in-a-million shot at happening, but there are many similar events, it’s much more likely to happen at any ONE of them.

To be clear, I don’t have an opinion either way about this specific Club, but the statistical arguments based on random independent events don’t have any relevance.