How to break 90..everytime.

[Maverick]

To paraphrase what I read in GOLF magazine recently. If you want to break 90, play every hole as a par 5. 18 (holes) X 5 = 90. Okay, so you need to pull a bogey on a par 3 or get a stroke on of the holes but is that so hard..geez..after reading the article I was dumbfounded..so simple..I no longer have an excuse why I don't break 90 everytime.

[LarryK]

..so simple..I no longer have an excuse why I don't break 90 everytime.

But I'm going to bet you can't do it! I know I can't!

What will it mean for you to play every hole as a par 5? Never hit driver off the tee? Lay up in front of the green when you are 180 yards out? Lag putt from 25 feet? One thing great course architects surely know how to do is exploit the human emotion of greed. As a result, I often play some of my better golf on difficult holes. I am forced to be conservative and keep the ball in play. Easy hole? BOMBS AWAY!!! (.....oh, crap. I'm never going to find it over there ....)

[Maverick]

What will it

Well, precisely. A 550 yrd. par 5 (decent length)..and do the math here..hit a 200 yrd shot, 200 yrd shot, 150 home..no? For me that would be a easy 5 iron twice, and an easy 8..no?

Lay up

Well, depends what your ability is, but according to the article, yes.

Lag putt

Well isn't any putt at that range a lag putt also?

[LarryK]

For me that would be a easy 5 iron twice, and an easy 8..no?

I would think it would take enormous discipline to hit a 5-iron off the tee on a par 5 with a BIG WIDE FAIRWAY, but if you've got that discipline, more power to you!

Well, depends what your ability is, but according to the article, yes.

Again, it's a matter of discipline, but a lot of guys would rationalize as follows: "Well, I hit split the middle with that 5-iron pretty good, surely I can get on the green

somewhere with a 6-iron..."

Well isn't any putt at that range a lag putt also?

For you and me, more than likely, but I've noticed that the really good players are almost always going for the hole and rarely leave it short. That four footer coming back doesn't seem to bother them. Me? Heck, I've lagged 10 foot birdie putts just because I was so excited about the prospect of making par.

I'm not disparaging your strategy. It is really very sound. I'm just saying you may find it harder to actually follow than you think. Good luck and let us know how it turns out in actual practice.

[Everardo]

Well if you're not a long hitter then you could take your 3 wood from the tee say 225 and now you're spliting 225 for the next two shots which seems more a little more reasonable

[BruceH]

My course/score management strategy of the moment is to turn every hole into a par 3. Take 1 or 2 shots to get yourself onto the a nice par 3.

Everyone can play a par 3. Can't they...

[Peter_in_Atl]

Why do you think "old" guys beat the hell out of you? They don't hit it far but it's straight down the middle. 3 shots to the green and 1 putt for par.

[Rafcin]

I don't think it would work for me. The more "safe" I play - the worse the score gets. The problem is, with players of our abilities - a 5i shot could end up in the bushes with only slightly smaller probability than i.e. 3W or a driver. Even if you do pull it off - you have to hit the 2nd perfect as well, then 3rd, etc. Do you see what I mean? You have NO ROOM FOR ERROR playing safe. If you miss one shot playing to be on the green with putt for par - your first putt is for bogey. If you play your "regular" game and you hit one good, one bad.. - you're in chipping range to get it close and putt for par. Laying up and playing safe is good for people who can throw darts from 100yds. If you're missing 50% of the greens from 100yds (like I do ) you can't afford the layups and safe play.
IMHO breaking 90's is simple avoid "blow-ups". no triples, very little double bogies.
This you can do by playing smart. There is a difference between intentionally laying-up planning it from the tee and playing "smart" - selecting the shots according to your ability.

[NCGolfer]

Of course, you could play for bogey on every hole...that would most likely be a 90.

I think what is at the heart of the discussion here is something I read in one of my Rotella books. I don't know the exact person/passage, but a pro caddied for one of his students that had never broken 80. The pro clubbed him on every shot and made him lay up a buch of times where it was way too risky to go for a shot into the green.

I think that there is something to be said for aiming away from trouble. You can't make birdie on every hole and your chances to make a big number go way down if you play a 225 yard shot by hitting a mid iron to about 30-50 yards and then pitch it to the hole from there. It sounds simple and not so heroic, but the student in Rotella's book easily broke 80 by playing the odds.

[iacas]

I have a theory that just about everyone should play the same level of risk, from the 30-handicapper to the Tour pro. In other words, for a Tour Pro, a 210-yard approach to a tight pin over water may be as "risky" as a 150-yard shot with a bunker tucked close to the pin to an 18-handicapper. In both instances, the player may do well to aim away from the trouble: the Tour pro by hitting a little long and the amateur by hitting away from the bunker and more towards the middle of the green.

Whatever "measurement" you assess to the situation: "x out of y" or a percentage or just a general feeling, I think most players should play around the same level of risk on every shot. They get to hit riskier shots as they get better, of course - it's just that since their skills have improved, they are as likely to succeed at a tougher shot.

Just a theory. I did well last year following my advice. I established what I felt was my skill level and went from there... and it changed slightly day to day depending on how I was hitting the ball - shot shape, quality, distance, etc.

[Thrash13]

That is a decent method. I need to tell my friend about that. He may need to learn how to break 100 first though.

As for me, I need to learn how to break 80....every time. :/

I've only done it three times in my golfing career, so I must be doing something wrong.

[iacas]

I've

That's the spirit!

[Rafcin]

I think that there is something to be said for aiming away from trouble. You can't make birdie on every hole and your chances to make a big number go way down if you play a 225 yard shot by hitting a mid iron to about 30-50 yards and then pitch it to the hole from there. It sounds simple and not so heroic, but the student in Rotella's book easily broke 80 by playing the odds.

Spoken like a true "+" hcp golfer

Let's put some (made up for the sake of discussion) numbers here: We'll assume (after your drive on a par 4) you are 230yds away, middle of the fairway, no hazards but trees left and right. Objective is to get within 10ft for a putt. ( to simplify calculations - holing out from 50 yds is 0% ) Dave: chance to get 3W(?) on to the green within 10ft : 66% chance to hit mid iron to middle of the fairway: 95% chance to hit pitch close to the pin: 90% chance to make a 10ft putt: 66% chance to 2-putt once on the green: 95% Going for it total: 66% and 66% = chance for birdie: 44% Going for it total: 66% and 95% = chance for par : 63% lay up short total: chance for birdie: 0% lay up short total: 95% and 90% and 66% = chance for par: 56% 90+ scoring player: chance to get 3W(?) on to the green within 10ft : 25% chance to hit mid iron to middle of the fairway: 66% chance to hit pitch close to the pin: 50% chance to make a 10ft putt: 40% chance to 2-putt once on the green: 66% Going for it total: 25% and 40% = chance for birdie: 10% Going for it total: 25% and 66% = chance for par : 17% lay up short total: chance for birdie: 0% lay up short total: 66% and 50% and 40% = chance for par: 13% Assuming my thinking is correct and the percentages make sense (adjust accordingly based on your stats) - looks to me like "going for it" gives better odds for par for both players? chance for a birdie for a weaker player is only 3% less than chance for a par if he decides to "go for it"... It kind of echo's Arnold Palmer idea of "have fun playing golf", I heard him talking about this issue when he was involved into the ERC legality issue. He stated, that chance improvements by using lesser club (playing smart) are drastic for a good player, but insignificant for a less skilled player.... Of course to make full decision you should think about 'what if miss - how bad is it going to be' scenarios and other stuff, but I hope you catch my drift on that one. I'm not saying "grip it and rip it", but trying to make a good shot won't always leave you in bad spot (isn't kind of what Vijay was saying about bombing 350+ drives and missing fairways?).

[iacas]

Assuming my thinking is correct and the percentages make sense (adjust accordingly based on your stats) - looks to me like "going for it" gives better odds for par for both players?

Two flaws in your reasoning as I see it. Here's the first:

90+ scoring player:

I think that's way off. A bogey golfer hitting their 3W to within 10 feet of a flag from 230 doesn't happen anywhere near 1/4 of the time. If that percentage drops to even 1 in 10 (which is still stretching it, I think) then they are better off laying up.

The second error as I see it is also this: you've failed to include trouble. A 230-yard shot isn't always the same. What if it's fronted by water? What about bunkers or even something as simple as deep greenside rough. Or a very sloped putting surface. How much trouble there is around the green comes into play for a higher handicapper a lot more than a lower one, so you'd need to add something like this to your calculations: Scratch golfer: chance of hitting 3W to green so poorly you cost yourself a stroke just getting back into play: 10% Bogey Golfer chance of hitting 3W to green so poorly you cost yourself a stroke just getting back into play: 40% (OB, water, sand, thick rough, a cluster of trees, etc.) After all, wasn't it you that said:

IMHO breaking 90's is simple avoid "blow-ups". no triples, very little double bogies

If you're going to throw out some math, make sure you account for the times when playing stupid (a bogey golfer trying to get on a green from 230 yards and not get into any trouble) COSTS him a stroke too, leading to those triples and doubles.

(A small aside: I see where you're going with the whole math thing, and it provides more thought for discussion. Thanks for posting it.)

[NCGolfer]

Rafi -

I think Erik is right...your numbers are way off. The chances of me getting a shot from 230 yards within 10 feet is probably less than 5%. I would put just hitting the green at around 30-35%...that is if there aren't any obstructions and the lie is nice and flat.

I like the idea of using some formulas...very interesting. I still think that the average to mid-handicap golfer would be much better served by not "going for it"...even more so than the low-handicap golfer. Sure, the low-handicappers "safe" play has a better chance of working than the mid to high-handcapper and the chance of a "blow up" is a ton less for the low-handicapper. But, it's those triples, quads and others that occur when "going for it" that separate a 5 handicapper from a 12. All I'm trying to do is take those out of the equation.

[Rafcin]

Two flaws in your reasoning as I see it. Here's the first:

You're probably right, however my point was, that the chance to get in 2 shots using 3W+chipper vs. 7i+9i might actually be better. I guess I should've done it in more detailed way, something like :

hitting "decent" 3W : 25% hitting "decent" chip: 50% (end up within 10ft) vs. hitting "decent" 7i: 66% hitting "decent" 9i: 33% (end up within 10ft)

The second error as I see it is also this: you've failed to include trouble. A 230-yard shot isn't always the same. What if it's fronted by water? What about bunkers or even something as simple as deep greenside rough. Or a very sloped putting surface.

I did mention it in two places - middle fairway, no trouble and I also mentioned that the "what happens if you don't pull it off" is a big factor in the thought process, no disagreement here, you're right.

[Rafcin]

Rafi -

I should've known better than getting into the numbers discussion with the professional "cruncher"

You're right, it is on high side, but I think if you adjust all the %'s - the calculation might not be as clear cut as you'd expect. The problem is, that there are about 35671 different factors that should be included in this model, so it's all theoretical anyway. Especially in golf the number of factors involved makes the probability calculations very hard to take seriously...

[Rafcin]

...The chances of me getting a shot from 230 yards within 10 feet is probably less than 5%....

By the way - if you're trying to get more strokes (or should I say - give less) at the next Newport Cup based on that statement - FORGET IT. Nice try !