The Big Break "Indian Wells"

[sonicblue]

I have a very important question.........

Dude, is your name Russell or Norman????

[shades9323]

His name is Russell Normadin.

Originally Posted by sonicblue

I have a very important question.........

Dude, is your name Russell or Norman????

[NCSU_MSE]

Originally Posted by soloredd

Oren was lucky to get out of his match - hitting driver after David went in the bunker was nuts.

I facepalmed at that decision.  It seems to me that most of the guys had zero concept of course strategy.  With a bunker fronting the green and the pin in the front middle like that, why even go for it unless you're 100% sure you can make it?  Lay up, stick a partial wedge close, and make your birdie.

[bplewis24]

I, too, was a bit surprised every single person went with driver, but that may be because I don't necessarily have their game.  I would have definitely hit an iron off the tee.

Actually, this illustrates why I hate it when BB uses driveable par 4s for challenges.  If you're going to have them play a full hole, at least have it be a mid-length par 4.  I want to see guys tee off and hit a short/mid-iron into the green.

Brandon

[newtogolf]

I think it's easy to play Monday morning quarterback, but quite different when you're in the heat of the moment.  I do agree strategically it wasn't a very good decision.  These guys seem to be using their past play as a way to intimidate others from calling them out and I guess that's sitting in the back of everyones minds as well.  They all believe they are good golfers, but within the house there appears to be a pecking order with Kent and Will at the top and the rest trying to knock them off.

Originally Posted by NCSU_MSE

I facepalmed at that decision.  It seems to me that most of the guys had zero concept of course strategy.  With a bunker fronting the green and the pin in the front middle like that, why even go for it unless you're 100% sure you can make it?  Lay up, stick a partial wedge close, and make your birdie.

[shades9323]

Originally Posted by bplewis24

I, too, was a bit surprised every single person went with driver, but that may be because I don't necessarily have their game.  I would have definitely hit an iron off the tee.

Actually, this illustrates why I hate it when BB uses driveable par 4s for challenges.  If you're going to have them play a full hole, at least have it be a mid-length par 4.  I want to see guys tee off and hit a short/mid-iron into the green.

Brandon

I think it brings more strategy into the mix on having the driveable par 4's.

[bplewis24]

Yeah, but the penalty is still pretty negligible unless you completely botch the drive.  Hell, the worst drive of the day actually ended up winning the hole, I believe.

Brandon

[saltman]

My thoughts so far:

Not terribly impressed with the golf yet, but its hard to determine how good any of these players really are based on single shots.  That said, there are several technique issues that I wouldn't expect to see from a 5 handicap player much less a scratch.

-Carl comes in very steep with his irons, but I guess so does Bubba Watson, so what do I know?  Dude is mentally tough though!

-Russell flips his hands on chips which looked very mid/high handicap.  I've seen quirkier, but it looks like a technique that will break down under pressure.

-Oren's decision to hit driver was a head scratcher, actually a lot of them made head scratching decisions.  That hole could not have been more than 330yds, why not leave yourself a nice controlled wedge as opposed to bringing those bunkers into play?

-Shank blading a tight lie?  Hopefully thats just nerves.

As for the buying a half point, it varies by challenge.  Shank was probably wise to buy another point last week as it was a challenge in which it gave him a clear advantage.  David last night, not very wise.  Somebody explain to me the situation where David's half point isn't the exact same advantage as his full point?  That said, being a money leader doesn't provide that much of an advantage week to week.

From a personality perspective, I think this cast has some pretty nice characters.  Justin and Kent I can do without, both are pretty classless thus far.  Russell, if you are reading I am contemplating taking you up on your offer, if for no other reason than to see your full game!  Good luck to you and thanks for what you do!

[bplewis24]

They listed the hole as 306 to the pin.  As far as I can remember, David's half point (half shot, really) lead would have only mattered if they both took the same amount of strokes to get within each target distance.  In that case, it would have been a gross tie, but a net win by a half shot.  Buying the half shot meant that if he took one extra shot throughout all of the locations, he would have bought himself a net push, getting him into sudden death.  That's why in that format it's not as cost-effective IMO: you spend way too much money to go from losing to sudden death.  If it was to go from losing to winning, or if it was only $500-$1,000 to go from losing to sudden death, I would do it.

And Carl's swing looks damn ugly at times.

Brandon

[NCSU_MSE]

Originally Posted by newtogolf

I think it's easy to play Monday morning quarterback, but quite different when you're in the heat of the moment.  I do agree strategically it wasn't a very good decision.  These guys seem to be using their past play as a way to intimidate others from calling them out and I guess that's sitting in the back of everyones minds as well.  They all believe they are good golfers, but within the house there appears to be a pecking order with Kent and Will at the top and the rest trying to knock them off.

I beg to differ.  ANY golfer, from a 20-capper to a scratch, can map out a course strategy.  I understand pressure and all that (as I always put pressure on myself to shoot a personal best), but not weighing the risk & reward of ending up in that left front bunker is the kind of thing I'd expect from a rank amateur or a complete meathead.  Now I'll agree that some guys might have been worried about being called out, but it's better to be an immune & "sissy" than macho & eliminated.

I also agree with the poster who mentioned Carl's swing.  He looks like his left elbow chicken wings quite a bit.  It'll be interesting to see how that holds up under pressure.

[saltman]

Originally Posted by bplewis24

They listed the hole as 306 to the pin.  As far as I can remember, David's half point (half shot, really) lead would have only mattered if they both took the same amount of strokes to get within each target distance.  In that case, it would have been a gross tie, but a net win by a half shot.  Buying the half shot meant that if he took one extra shot throughout all of the locations, he would have bought himself a net push, getting him into sudden death.  That's why in that format it's not as cost-effective IMO: you spend way too much money to go from losing to sudden death.  If it was to go from losing to winning, or if it was only $500-$1,000 to go from losing to sudden death, I would do it.

And Carl's swing looks damn ugly at times.

Brandon

Agreed.  My point is he is already in sudden death, I guess he gets insurance, but past events do not impact the probability of the future.  He would go into a second sudden death with the exact same odds of winning as the first.  To me that = no value, so spending even $1 is a bad bargain.

The format that Shank played in was entirely different, Shank effectively got a head start which was an enormous advantage.  IIRC in his format it would be similar to a 100m run in which one runner started 1/3rd of the way down the track!

Certainly that is hard to think about right then and there.  I would be inclined to take any advantage offered in a competition like this, so can't be too hard on David.  Thus far the money board has not really proven to be a big advantage to the leaders.  In blackjack, allowing players to buy a mulligan ] may have made things interesting.

[x129]

There are mathematical ways of calculating what is the best play but you would need to be able to estimate the odds of the various outcomes.  The questions is how often will your opponent beat you by exactly 1 stroke.  If you assume that the challenges are about the same as 2 holes of golf (most of them are less than that) and the contests are equal in skill, I am guessing something like 20% of the time that extra half point will get you in the playoff and you should win half of them. Thats a lot of value.

The unknown is what the future value of the money is. Right now the only value we can see is in picking teams (not super valuable), opponents (well if you know the challenge this does have value. Don't challenge Shank to a driving contest) and a half point in the elimination challenge (this is big). There could be more uses for money later in the show which might really disadvantage the low guys. Time will tell.

Quote:

They listed the hole as 306 to the pin.  As far as I can remember, David's half point (half shot, really) lead would have only mattered if they both took the same amount of strokes to get within each target distance.  In that case, it would have been a gross tie, but a net win by a half shot.  Buying the half shot meant that if he took one extra shot throughout all of the locations, he would have bought himself a net push, getting him into sudden death.  That's why in that format it's not as cost-effective IMO: you spend way too much money to go from losing to sudden death.  If it was to go from losing to winning, or if it was only $500-$1,000 to go from losing to sudden death, I would do it.

And Carl's swing looks damn ugly at times.

Brandon

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by saltman

The format that Shank played in was entirely different, Shank effectively got a head start which was an enormous advantage.  IIRC in his format it would be similar to a 100m run in which one runner started 1/3rd of the way down the track!

Completely agree.

Originally Posted by x129

The unknown is what the future value of the money is.

Right.  The future value is a huge wildcard that I'm sure the producers will exploit to add drama in whatever ways they see fit as the leaderboard takes further shape.

Brandon

[ND Fan]

This may be th eworst batch of golfers ever on BB.  None of these guys look to be very good at all.

[DAZinKC]

Carl's bluffing ploy was genius. Shank was a little lost, I think. If he wanted Russell to believe he had a 20 or 21, he should have spun around and sat down right after he made 15. He just kind of lingered there. I was a little surprised Russell fell for it.

If Will is able to play and sing to himself the whole show he'll win.

Calm and cool.

[TheGeekGolfer]

Originally Posted by KillaK

I have to agree with a few of the guys here - the blackjack game would have been a lot better if the cards weren't secret.  The guys with more money in the bank could get the slight advantage of going second and knowing what he has to beat.  I didn't understand why the "cards" were kept quiet - seems to me the challenge would have been more interesting if a guy knew he had to hit a certain number and went for it.

The cards were kept secret, because that's how you play cards...you normally don't see the other guy's cards.  Now, to make it more like blackjack, they could've kept the first card (ie - first shot) 'hidden' and then alternated shots till you decide to stay with your down card not visible.  What I don't understand is the decision (forget who) of the guy who got a '3' on his first shot.  Then he wanted to hit the K for 10 points on his second shot and did... that's not what you want playing blackjack at all.  If you have a '3', aim for the middle of the grid, I think it was '5' then 'A' then '4' or aim for the '7' or '8' (not sure where they were at on the grid, deleted my DVR episode).  Once you get '13', you don't have many outs.  That being said, if you have '18', you stop...you don't have much left to aim for and you don't bust or you just gave the first guy a free pass.

[motteler621]

well someone called it earlier, when Justin said something about getting back on the show, looks like he has a chance now.

[Chilli Dipper]

well someone called it earlier, when Justin said something about getting back on the show, looks like he has a chance now.

Not anymore, he doesn't. On a related note, has Robert actually ever played golf before?