Is 39 Too Old?

[zeg]

39: not too old to start playing golf.

39: too old to have a realistic shot at the pros.

In the following, I'm not being US-centric, I'm simply using the numbers for the US because (compared to the world as a whole) most Americans have or could have access to golf. There's no reason to think Americans are better or worse than typical, so the numbers should be fair.

There are roughly 300 million Americans, and roughly 100 PGA Tour level American golfers (these are good to within factors of about 2). With no other information at all, you'd conclude that there's about a 3 in 10,000,000 (3 x 10^-7) chance of making it.  Even if you're off by a factor of a thousand in your estimate in the "right" direction, you're still talking about a 0.0003 chance---0.03%---which is something most of us would safely consider zero.

And, in fact, the odds are probably worse, not better, than the naive estimate. Most of the factors that would increase the odds are things like having started playing with good coaching during one's early years, when new skills are easier to develop. Really, your only chance would be if you happened to be the 1 in 10 million who has such a natural knack for the game that you're playing scratch almost immediately. If you find that you're going to have to grind to get down to single digits, there's just not likely to be enough time left to improve the hard way.

So, basically, it's fine to dream about going pro, but at your (or my) age, you should be playing for enjoyment of the game and the process of learning it. The odds aren't zero, but they're so close that it's irrational to pretend that they're anything else.

[Nosevi]

39: not too old to start playing golf. 39: too old to have a realistic shot at the pros. In the following, I'm not being US-centric, I'm simply using the numbers for the US because (compared to the world as a whole) most Americans have or could have access to golf. There's no reason to think Americans are better or worse than typical, so the numbers should be fair. There are roughly 300 million Americans, and roughly 100 PGA Tour level American golfers (these are good to within factors of about 2). With no other information at all, you'd conclude that there's about a 3 in 10,000,000 (3 x 10^-7) chance of making it.  Even if you're off by a factor of a thousand in your estimate in the "right" direction, you're still talking about a 0.0003 chance---0.03%---which is something most of us would safely consider zero. And, in fact, the odds are probably worse, not better, than the naive estimate. Most of the factors that would increase the odds are things like having started playing with good coaching during one's early years, when new skills are easier to develop. Really, your only chance would be if you happened to be the 1 in 10 million who has such a natural knack for the game that you're playing scratch almost immediately. If you find that you're going to have to grind to get down to single digits, there's just not likely to be enough time left to improve the hard way. So, basically, it's fine to dream about going pro, but at your (or my) age, you should be playing for enjoyment of the game and the process of learning it. The odds aren't zero, but they're so close that it's irrational to pretend that they're anything else.

I must confess, I know the stats argument, and I'm not about to argue that the OP has a decent chance as yet as it is kind of important how you're playing on a golf course vs good shots in a range, but I look at it in a slightly different way. Look at the 1st, 2nd and Final stage Q School scores. I did it for the European Tour a while back and have just checked out the PGA Tour to see if it's way different - it's not. Getting through the first two rounds of q school you need to be playing some pretty good golf on some pretty tough courses or you need to be lucky. To get through first stage last year you have to have shot -6 on a couple of the course, but +3 or +4 got you through on a couple of other ones. Either the weather was awful or the field were feeling the pressure. Stage 2 and final stage actually worked out the same last year - you have to have shot -6 over 4 rounds in second stage, the same in final stage but that is over 6 rounds. Previous years second stage has been a bit easier but the scores were good in all three venues last year. Anyway, that's the way I see it. If you had paid your entry fee and averaged one under, or a tad better for 2nd stage, per round you'd be on the tour. Not in any way an easy thing to do. Equally people who say you have to be able to blitz every course you see, every time you see it are exagerating a tad.

[wadesworld]

I would say this:

If being a professional golfer at some level is your dream, go for it.  However, at your age, you're going to have to go for it COMPLETELY.  You're going to have to quit your job, get the best swing coach in Thailand and devote yourself to golf all day every day.

If your dream is just to be a good player, win some course championships and maybe play in some amateur events, that's certainly doable in time and without having to have the same level of dedication.

Being optimistic is fine.  However, it is your naiveté which makes you so optimistic.  The difference between shooting 85 and 72 is staggering.  The difference between 72 and 68 is exponentially harder.

The world is littered with guys who tried to become a touring golf pro and didn't make it.  The pro at any golf course in the world is probably one of those guys.  Have a talk with him and maybe even play a round with him.

The big problem with becoming a touring player is that pretty much only the highest-level touring pros make enough money to make a living at it.  Sure, you might get good enough to turn pro and join a mini-tour, but when the mini-tour doesn't pay enough to even cover your travel costs, you're going to have to have another job on the side.

[Nosevi]

That's ok then. I have quit my job, my coach is the head coach of our national academy and I practice about 6 hours a day at the mo. Gone from a 20 odd handicap to a 5 in about 6-7 months. Shot par at my home track a couple of times. Wadda you think my chances are? Just kidding around (though not about my handicap and timescale) Was out practicing next to our national team earlier today, was with our A team yesterday. I see what good players play like all the time. I know some guys who play off 2 and 3 but practicing alongside guys playing off plus 2, plus 3 and lower you see what the difference is.

[x129]

Absolute scores in golf are meaningless.  Ever notice how the nationwide scores are lower than the PGA ones pretty much every week? It is all about the course. An 80 on one course might be a better score than a 69 on another.

The odds are quite as bad as the previous post. Half the population is out of the running from the start. Of what is left 25% is too young and 40% is too old. Of what is left half will never even play the game. 99% of them will never practice more than1 hour a day. Of course this is just bumping the percentages from like

.0001% to .01%.

Originally Posted by Nosevi

I must confess, I know the stats argument, and I'm not about to argue that the OP has a decent chance as yet as it is kind of important how you're playing on a golf course vs good shots in a range, but I look at it in a slightly different way.

Look at the 1st, 2nd and Final stage Q School scores. I did it for the European Tour a while back and have just checked out the PGA Tour to see if it's way different - it's not. Getting through the first two rounds of q school you need to be playing some pretty good golf on some pretty tough courses or you need to be lucky. To get through first stage last year you have to have shot -6 on a couple of the course, but +3 or +4 got you through on a couple of other ones. Either the weather was awful or the field were feeling the pressure. Stage 2 and final stage actually worked out the same last year - you have to have shot -6 over 4 rounds in second stage, the same in final stage but that is over 6 rounds. Previous years second stage has been a bit easier but the scores were good in all three venues last year.

Anyway, that's the way I see it. If you had paid your entry fee and averaged one under, or a tad better for 2nd stage, per round you'd be on the tour. Not in any way an easy thing to do. Equally people who say you have to be able to blitz every course you see, every time you see it are exagerating a tad.

[soon_tourpro]

Originally Posted by wadesworld

I would say this:

If being a professional golfer at some level is your dream, go for it.  However, at your age, you're going to have to go for it COMPLETELY.  You're going to have to quit your job, get the best swing coach in Thailand and devote yourself to golf all day every day.

If your dream is just to be a good player, win some course championships and maybe play in some amateur events, that's certainly doable in time and without having to have the same level of dedication.

Being optimistic is fine.  However, it is your naiveté which makes you so optimistic.  The difference between shooting 85 and 72 is staggering.  The difference between 72 and 68 is exponentially harder.

The world is littered with guys who tried to become a touring golf pro and didn't make it.  The pro at any golf course in the world is probably one of those guys.  Have a talk with him and maybe even play a round with him.

The big problem with becoming a touring player is that pretty much only the highest-level touring pros make enough money to make a living at it.  Sure, you might get good enough to turn pro and join a mini-tour, but when the mini-tour doesn't pay enough to even cover your travel costs, you're going to have to have another job on the side.

Its much harder than people understand.
scratch is easy, but to get to +5 or such isnt.

I see tour players come to a more normal course, they easily shoot 63.

Bubba has some rounds under 60 on such.

Not to say it isnt doable or even possible but it requires some big determination and ambition.

a good plan isnt enough you need a great plan.

[Nosevi]

Absolute scores in golf are meaningless.  Ever notice how the nationwide scores are lower than the PGA ones pretty much every week? It is all about the course. An 80 on one course might be a better score than a 69 on another.  The odds are quite as bad as the previous post. Half the population is out of the running from the start. Of what is left 25% is too young and 40% is too old. Of what is left half will never even play the game. 99% of them will never practice more than1 hour a day. Of course this is just bumping the percentages from like .0001% to .01%. [QUOTE name="Nosevi" url="/t/58187/is-39-too-old/72#post_776706"] I must confess, I know the stats argument, and I'm not about to argue that the OP has a decent chance as yet as it is kind of important how you're playing on a golf course vs good shots in a range, but I look at it in a slightly different way. Look at the 1st, 2nd and Final stage Q School scores. I did it for the European Tour a while back and have just checked out the PGA Tour to see if it's way different - it's not. Getting through the first two rounds of q school you need to be playing some pretty good golf on some pretty tough courses or you need to be lucky. To get through first stage last year you have to have shot -6 on a couple of the course, but +3 or +4 got you through on a couple of other ones. Either the weather was awful or the field were feeling the pressure. Stage 2 and final stage actually worked out the same last year - you have to have shot -6 over 4 rounds in second stage, the same in final stage but that is over 6 rounds. Previous years second stage has been a bit easier but the scores were good in all three venues last year. Anyway, that's the way I see it. If you had paid your entry fee and averaged one under, or a tad better for 2nd stage, per round you'd be on the tour. Not in any way an easy thing to do. Equally people who say you have to be able to blitz every course you see, every time you see it are exagerating a tad.[/QUOTE]

Like I said, they play on some pretty tough courses. The course where I was at the range earlier is a championship course at our national academy. It's been ranked as the best inland course in the UK and was ranked 25th in World Golf Magazine's top 100 courses in the world though it's now slipped to 59, 6 places above Medinah and just a few below TPC Sawgrass. All of that said I almost guarantee you'll never have heard of or played the Hotchkin, no big events there, we do use it for our national squads a lot though. If you want some decent bunkers its a good one to play - some have stairs so you can climb back out again. What's my point? I'm familiar with some pretty tough courses. That's the sort of course I'll put myself up against to see how good I am. I pretty much guarantee the courses used for Q School are no harder, but they're probably equally as hard. If I could ever consistently get round the Hotchkin in 2 under there's no reason that I couldn't get through q school. All really hyperthetical though - I can't go round the Hotchkin in 2 under......

[zeg]

Originally Posted by x129

The odds are quite as bad as the previous post. Half the population is out of the running from the start. Of what is left 25% is too young and 40% is too old. Of what is left half will never even play the game. 99% of them will never practice more than1 hour a day. Of course this is just bumping the percentages from like

.0001% to .01%.

I assume you meant "not quite as bad," but I don't think you can really take an argument like mine much farther than I did. The other factors get to be important pretty quickly, and not all of them are in any particular person's favor (e.g., not many people put in the time, but there's a huge self-selection effect there). But, yeah, the point is that it's simply not a good bet.

Still, don't get me wrong, if you have the means *and* you'll enjoy the ride, why not go for it? I certainly would.

Nosevi, your statements about Q-school are at odds with pretty much everything I've ever read about it. Yes, the scores aren't always 6 under, but like you said, when it's not there's probably another factor in play. Plus, you have to get through *all* the rounds to make it. If you're not regularly blitzing courses, it's pretty unlikely that you're going to string together a bunch of miracle rounds just in time for Q-school, under the pressure, and if you're lucky, on harder than average setups so that the scores don't get absurdly low for everyone.

[Nosevi]

[QUOTE name="x129" url="/t/58187/is-39-too-old/72#post_776739"] The odds are quite as bad as the previous post. Half the population is out of the running from the start. Of what is left 25% is too young and 40% is too old. Of what is left half will never even play the game. 99% of them will never practice more than1 hour a day. Of course this is just bumping the percentages from like .0001% to .01%. [/QUOTE] I assume you meant "not quite as bad," but I don't think you can really take an argument like mine much farther than I did. The other factors get to be important pretty quickly, and not all of them are in any particular person's favor (e.g., not many people put in the time, but there's a huge self-selection effect there). But, yeah, the point is that it's simply not a good bet. Still, don't get me wrong, if you have the means *and* you'll enjoy the ride, why not go for it? I certainly would. Nosevi, your statements about Q-school are at odds with pretty much everything I've ever read about it. Yes, the scores aren't always 6 under, but like you said, when it's not there's probably another factor in play. Plus, you have to get through *all* the rounds to make it. If you're not regularly blitzing courses, it's pretty unlikely that you're going to string together a bunch of miracle rounds just in time for Q-school, under the pressure, and if you're lucky, on harder than average setups so that the scores don't get absurdly low for everyone.

I don't think we're that far away from each other, I just said what the scores actually were to get through. 6 under got you through every round. If you were on a couple of the first round courses then 3 over got you through but like I said, maybe conditions were really bad. It's very difficult to play at this level and even harder to maintain it for all 3 rounds. It is possible though, as I've said, I was practicing next to our national squad earlier today - 14 young lads and the worst of them plays off plus 2. The best few players are off plus 4 and one is pushing plus 5. It's really interesting seeing what they do well and what you could conceivably be able to do. The biggest difference isn't in their good shots, it's that their bad shots are not as bad. In no way am I saying it would be easy but seeing how guys who can shoot those sort of scores play, it just gives you a glimmer of hope. :-)

[Lihu]

Two other things I would like to add: My kids are in a program where they are looking for potential talent to be pro. Most of the kids play well, all could shoot below 14. There are one or two kids who shoot the single digits. The age of the kids in this group is from 8years to 15years. The older ones are girls playing in their high school teams, while the younger ones play more or less for fun. I think they found six kids over the last ten years, out of tens of thousands, who went to division 1 schools like UCLA or Stanford, and as far as I know, none went pro. My town high school has a golf team. The kids there shoot in the single digits, yes, these kids play on the same courses where I go. They lose most of the time to surrounding towns. Only one of them has a chance into a division 3 school, this year. My kids (for the 12 year olds) coach got mad at me for thinking about not playing one weekend, because the temperature was 106 and 111 the next day. Which brings me to the next point. I play golf for enjoyment, even though I hit 400 balls a day for weight loss. I like good weather to play in. Yes, it's fun to play during summer gale conditions now and then, or even in the rain along the coast. To play under those conditions while your career is on the line? Doesn't sound like much fun to me.

[Williamevanl]

Crazy post, you didn't even wait until you started shooting mid 80's like everyone else... :P I'd recommend checking out this site: http://thedanplan.com or http://mygreenjacket.com

Everybody does the same thing in golf, you put in a little time and quickly reach a level or proficiency that gives the illusion that the progress will continue. Unfortunately it doesn't.  (laughably, you aren't even here yet). At this point you can start practicing 6 hours a day every single day for years and not get any better, or hardly get any better. (as Dan is doing).

Practice at some point can actually make you worse, but don't take our word for it, go after with everything you've got. Humbling isn't even the word for it, maddening is closer.

[Lihu]

Crazy post, you didn't even wait until you started shooting mid 80's like everyone else... :P I'd recommend checking out this site: [URL=http://thedanplan.com]http://thedanplan.com[/URL] or [URL=http://mygreenjacket.com]http://mygreenjacket.com[/URL] Everybody does the same thing in golf, you put in a little time and quickly reach a level or proficiency that gives the illusion that the progress will continue. Unfortunately it doesn't.  (laughably, you aren't even here yet). At this point you can start practicing 6 hours a day every single day for years and not get any better, or hardly get any better. (as Dan is doing). Practice at some point can actually make you worse, but don't take our word for it, go after with everything you've got. Humbling isn't even the word for it, maddening is closer.

Are you saying that by the time I get into my mid-80s, I will have this same illusion :-P

[soon_tourpro]

Crazy post, you didn't even wait until you started shooting mid 80's like everyone else... :P I'd recommend checking out this site: [URL=http://thedanplan.com]http://thedanplan.com[/URL] or [URL=http://mygreenjacket.com]http://mygreenjacket.com[/URL] Everybody does the same thing in golf, you put in a little time and quickly reach a level or proficiency that gives the illusion that the progress will continue. Unfortunately it doesn't.  (laughably, you aren't even here yet). At this point you can start practicing 6 hours a day every single day for years and not get any better, or hardly get any better. (as Dan is doing). Practice at some point can actually make you worse, but don't take our word for it, go after with everything you've got. Humbling isn't even the word for it, maddening is closer.

Dan is practicing to much and not properly. Hitting a platue is common due to any flaw in your game will show up as a mistake somewhere. Hitting it flush making impact is priority one and as long you cant do that you wont get a + handicap.

[Phil McGleno]

And youre not regularly breaking 80 or have a my swing thread. [quote name="soon_tourpro" url="/t/58187/is-39-too-old/72#post_777485"] Dan is practicing to much and not properly. Hitting a platue is common due to any flaw in your game will show up as a mistake somewhere. Hitting it flush making impact is priority one and as long you cant do that you wont get a + handicap.[/quote]

[Williamevanl]

Originally Posted by soon_tourpro

Dan is practicing to much and not properly.

Hitting a platue is common due to any flaw in your game will show up as a mistake somewhere.

Hitting it flush making impact is priority one and as long you cant do that you wont get a + handicap.

Oh good, this guy is another one :P. So many people have done this. I should write a book some day about all the delusional golfers who 'really went for it' at some point and came up woefully short.

Dan is coached by the a guy that holds the world speed golf record, ie can shoot 65 in 45 minutes!

Yes I know everybody thinks they know how to do it differently or that there is something about them that will make a difference. This isn't true, to avoid this being to long winded there's a quote out there floating around from Rory's dad about how they put Rory in a tournament at x age and he shot mid 60's or whatever and beat everyone, his dad said "That's when we realized we had something here." I think this is what separates the best players of the game, they practice sure, but they quickly find that they are good, really good better than just about everyone they can find. This is something that they discover not train themselves into. The game comes easy (relative to everyone else) and their practice continues to make them better motivating them to practice more. The consistently improve where others do not, most couldn't even tell you why. They 'find' themselves in this position, realize what they have.

[soon_tourpro]

Oh good, this guy is another one :P. So many people have done this. I should write a book some day about all the delusional golfers who 'really went for it' at some point and came up woefully short. Dan is coached by the a guy that holds the world speed golf record, ie can shoot 65 in 45 minutes! Yes I know everybody thinks they know how to do it differently or that there is something about them that will make a difference. This isn't true, to avoid this being to long winded there's a quote out there floating around from Rory's dad about how they put Rory in a tournament at x age and he shot mid 60's or whatever and beat everyone, his dad said "That's when we realized we had something here." I think this is what separates the best players of the game, they practice sure, but they quickly find that they are good, really good better than just about everyone they can find. This is something that they discover not train themselves into. The game comes easy (relative to everyone else) and their practice continues to make them better motivating them to practice more. The consistently improve where others do not, most couldn't even tell you why. They 'find' themselves in this position, realize what they have.

Once you applied you know your ideas as I have and add 50+ yards in a session for a pro and 30 for irons and made them make everything on the green and so on it tends to rub off. I also applied the same ideas for myself and removed 5 shots with putting alone. Once you take a Pro and do a swingoverhaul in 3 weeks for him and its fully functional in 3 months and better than his old swing it tends to rub off on you. The Dan plan isnt a bad one but he is burning out from the amount of practice he is doing. The talent code as an example you need deep practice which isnt more time but less time to create a turbocharged increase of ability. Dan just isnt following that. I would alter the time spent, increase the intensity and add some better feedback and he be a + handicap with it.

[Harmonious]

Originally Posted by soon_tourpro

Once you applied you know your ideas as I have and add 50+ yards in a session for a pro and 30 for irons and made them make everything on the green and so on it tends to rub off.

I also applied the same ideas for myself and removed 5 shots with putting alone.

Once you take a Pro and do a swingoverhaul in 3 weeks for him and its fully functional in 3 months and better than his old swing it tends to rub off on you.

Wait a second.... You are teaching a pro, and got him/her to add 50 yards in one session?  Either he/she was really screwed up, or you introduced steroids into the drinking water.

One other question:  If you can do all that for others, why are you an 8.2?  Doesn't make sense. Physician, heal thyself.

[wadesworld]

Originally Posted by soon_tourpro

Once you applied you know your ideas as I have and add 50+ yards in a session for a pro and 30 for irons and made them make everything on the green and so on it tends to rub off.

I also applied the same ideas for myself and removed 5 shots with putting alone.

Once you take a Pro and do a swingoverhaul in 3 weeks for him and its fully functional in 3 months and better than his old swing it tends to rub off on you.

Uh, yeah.....

Just to give you an idea what you're up against, I took a look at the qualifiers for my state AMATEUR championship.  In this one qualifier, the winner shot 67.  That's right, 5-under for an AMATEUR qualifier. Not the championship, just a qualifier. Oh, and #2?  He shot 67 too.  The next 3?  They shot 70.  Highest score to qualify was 74.

No worries though, since you're giving instructions to pros now, I'm sure it's just a matter of hours before your handicap drops from 8 to +5.