predicting somebody's golf game

[clearwaterms]

I play golf recretionally.  I don't keep an official handicap.  Often times I go to play golf as a way of escaping regular life, and as a result I will not even keep score.  That being said, on rounds when somebody keeps score for me, I typically shot in the high 80's for a good round and the mid 90's on a bad round.  Last night for instance I played a course I had never played before and with no warm up (had to get out in front of the golf league) I posted a 51 on the front (8 on the first hole) but got it together and posted a 43 on the back.

So here is the story I am trying to get to.  Last night on the backside, a single catches up to us, and because we had a foursome in front of us joined my partner and I for the last 4 holes of the round.  As we were walking down the fairway on the last hole, we start talking score and he mentions that he is 8 over for the round and typically shots right around high 70's low 80's on this course.  He asks how I am doing, and I explained that I was 5 over on the back but carded a 51 on the front.  He then asked if I kept a handicap, and I explained that I don't, but believe that I would be somewhere in the 17-19 range given the few scores that I have.  He proceeds to tell me that I am a better golfer than that, and he would fully anticipate that I would get down to a 12/13 this year.

My question is, can those of you that I consider to be better than average (<12 handicaps) look at how somebody is playing after 4-5 holes and tell how good somebody is capable of becoming?  I realize that you can't anticipate how good somebody is by looking at them play on the range.  Also, a score card doesn't have pictures, but watching somebody who isn't as good as you from tee to green for multiple holes, would you feel comfortable making a prediction like this person did last night?

[NM Golf]

You have to be careful with judging someone's abilities too quickly, but for the most part I can watch someone swing 4-5 times and tell you if they will ever be very good.

Like anything there are those people with natural abilities and those that do not possess natural abilities. I have a friend who started playing golf the same time I did . I was immediately better than he was. Approximately 20 years later he still can't break 100 consistently, and I am scratch. He loves the game plays quite a bit, he just has no natural ability when it comes to golf.

I am sure I will get some detractors, but I believe in most athletic endeavors people have a natural limit as to how good they can become. You can only run so fast, jump so high, throw a ball so hard, or hit a golf ball so far. In golf, even more-so than other sports it is immediately evident when someone has ability or not.

[colin007]

Originally Posted by NM Golf

You have to be careful with judging someone's abilities too quickly, but for the most part I can watch someone swing 4-5 times and tell you if they will ever be very good.

Like anything there are those people with natural abilities and those that do not possess natural abilities. I have a friend who started playing golf the same time I did . I was immediately better than he was. Approximately 20 years later he still can't break 100 consistently, and I am scratch. He loves the game plays quite a bit, he just has no natural ability when it comes to golf.

I am sure I will get some detractors, but I believe in most athletic endeavors people have a natural limit as to how good they can become. You can only run so fast, jump so high, throw a ball so hard, or hit a golf ball so far. In golf, even more-so than other sports it is immediately evident when someone has ability or not.

i agree, but i will add to it.  i have a friend who is very athletic, but with other sports.  he is great at basketball and football.  anything with a swing is a no-no.  baseball, golf, its terrible.  so i think some people have a natural predisposition for swinging sports, and some for just running around and jumping and catching.

im decent at everything, but not really good at anything.

[Love-13]

This is a question, like many others, where the answer is, it depends. I say this because there are so many variables to being a descent, or even better than average golfer. There are a lot of simple things that better players understand and see in others that average or below average golfers don't understand. They are very simple. Most Below average golfers (or uneducated to the game golfers)think there are three main things that make a good player, (mainly because they see tour pros or better players do these things). They are, hitting irons straight and being able to spin the ball backwards on the green, being able to make 20, 30, and 40 ft putts, and being able to hit driver 300+ yds. Oh and having the "best" clubs of course. All of that is correct if you know how to use those skills properly. Now I'm not saying you are one of those players, in fact I believe the opposite. An 8 stroke transition in 9 holes is great recovery. So you may employ what I'm about to say, and it may be why your guest said that to you. What makes a better than average, good or even great player is very simple core things and what separates them is pure skill and practice. The simple core things are. Knowing your strengths, weaknesses and playing to them with GOOD course management. If you are inconsistent don't try and drive a tight fairway or play for a green in 2 with hazards around. Don't seek pins unless the pin is set up to be seeked, play to the center of the green. Don't try to make 40 ft putts, make a 2 to 5 ft circle and try to hit the right distance, you make that 2-5 ft circle enough times and some of those putts will drop. If you are consistently off one way or another (slice/hook) set up to play that. And just avoid trouble, always remembering bogey is better than a snowman. I'll use me as an example. In highschool I was a 12 handicap, I hit a 5 iron 160 maybe, driver was 200-220ish. An I could not hit a straight ball if my life depended on it (slice/pull). But my short game has always been great. So I played to that. I aimed down the left side of the fairway so if I pulled I would stay in the first cut and if I sliced I had the whole fairway to slice over before hitting the rough. I played shots in the fairway to center of the green often times slicing or pulling off the green but I was near the green, if bunkers or water is there is adjust to give my best shot at missing those, and from most places within 20 yds of the pin I could get up and down. Also I was a short hitter, still am but more consistent. So I play par 4s that are 450 plus as par 5s in my head. If I bogey I expect that, if I par I'm one shot better than I expect and if I birdie it's like an eagle on my scorecard. If that basically describes how you golf, then I would've said the same thing as well. On the opposite end there are people who play less than their skills allow and that's because they play opposite of that. They hit the ball far, they are reasonably consistent but the take every risk possible because they dont understand the course management aspect of the game, and it's painful to see. I hate watching someone that hits the ball 330 off the tee and have all the natural skill play bogey golf or worse, because they go for every pin, they try to cut every dogleg they play over hazards to get eagle and take a double etc. if you played like that, I would not say that to you, yes he has the skill to be good/great but he doesn't have "the game" to be good or great. I hope that made sense.

[saevel25]

That and a few questions, yea i could guess were you should be shooting. Big questions is penalties, mistakes that are not necessarily part of the technique, but something someone gets into trouble with because they don't think about how they want to attack the course.

For example, hole 16 were i play, OB right, tons of space left, rough is never that high, its a par 5. Sparce trees down the left. My usual drive takes me past these trees. So i usually aim over them, or just inside them, keeping my ball down the left side of the fairway. I know players who have no business aiming down the middle because half the time they slice one OB. I've occassionally hit a slice on that hole, i rarely make it OB right due to were i aim. So right there, i am looking at keeping a +1 and distance off my scorecard.

Another example is hole 5, downhill par 3, water blocks 3/4 of the treen from left to right. If you hit it to the right side, there's a good chance it could kick left onto the green. I aim for that gap no matter the pin placement. The green isn't deep, left is dead due to the cart path and the hill that slides away. Right is an easy chip with plenty of green to work with. If i draw the ball, it will carry the water, if it fades, i might have a long putt.

Game Management is a huge factor were you can save multiple shots that really have nothing to do with your ability to hit the golf ball.

If the ball position is good, and your striking the ball first, the flight is good. After a few holes i can tell if you have good feel on the greens. I could guess were you should be shooting if you played a smart round of golf.

[Love-13]

You have to be careful with judging someone's abilities too quickly, but for the most part I can watch someone swing 4-5 times and tell you if they will ever be very good. Like anything there are those people with natural abilities and those that do not possess natural abilities. I have a friend who started playing golf the same time I did . I was immediately better than he was. Approximately 20 years later he still can't break 100 consistently, and I am scratch. He loves the game plays quite a bit, he just has no natural ability when it comes to golf. I am sure I will get some detractors, but I believe in most athletic endeavors people have a natural limit as to how good they can become. You can only run so fast, jump so high, throw a ball so hard, or hit a golf ball so far. In golf, even more-so than other sports it is immediately evident when someone has ability or not.

I would agree with you and it is a part I did not cover in my post. Natural ability is huge in seeing if someone can become good. But I do stand by what I said about having "the game" or understanding of how to play the game. I have a friend I play with quite a bit, his has always out drove me by 50 yards or more on some days when he's crushing it an I'm playing average, he'll be 80 yds ahead of me on some holes, but he is always about risk reward and he does not understand the short game and recovery, has no course management. His good to great rounds are playing sub 90 and sub 90 I mean 88-89. I drive the ball on average about 250-275 if I get absolutely everything, hit 300 a couple times on big downhill shots. But overall I lack the ability to hit a long ball. I have been under 14 since I was 13 and have been single digit most of my adult life, at my lowest I played to about a 4 handicap with short fade/pull swing. I've done it because of a good short game and course management. I used to not put for birdie often but always had 4-5 footers for par. So natural ability is really only 1 part of the equation. It's only the last few years that I've even learned how to hit the ball 250+ and I am actually worse now than when I hit it 220 because I don't play enough now a days and been making changes to my swing to get more of a draw and more distance and don't have time to create the muscle memory to do so haha.

[NM Golf]

Originally Posted by colin007

i agree, but i will add to it.  i have a friend who is very athletic, but with other sports.  he is great at basketball and football.  anything with a swing is a no-no.  baseball, golf, its terrible.  so i think some people have a natural predisposition for swinging sports, and some for just running around and jumping and catching.

im decent at everything, but not really good at anything.

I couldn't agree more. I once watched Brian Urlacher hit golf balls. It was ugly! Like I said I think golf is one sport where talent is even more evident.

To the rest of you, I am talking about looking at someone swinging the golf club, that is it. I do not care about course management or anything else. What someone chooses to do with their natural talent is totally beside the point. We are talking about watching someone swing a golf club and getting an idea of potential.

[Dave2512]

Just seeing someone play probably wouldn't reveal much. I've seen people with horrendous swings that somehow manage to make it work for them. Played with an old guy once that looked like he was playing Twister when he putted, was stiff as a board with driver in hand. I'M certain he never got the club above elbow height and he shot legit low 80's both times I played with him. He's a ranger at the home course, plays from the same tees I do. That and all the ladies out there I see hitting it low and straight on the way to better than bogey golf.