Handicap trends and competition

[k-troop]

In a single round medal play event, the higher HCers (as a group) have a better chance because it's much easier for a 20 HCer to shoot 85 than it is for a 3 HCer to shoot 68. I think in medal play the lower HCer regains the advantage when the competition is 3 or more rounds. I think head-to-head match play or a group tournament with Stableford scoring lessens the higher HCer's advantage. I played in a regular Saturday Stableford group (not using GHIN but rather a points-average HCP system) and it seemed that anyone who played well had a chance to win.

[David in FL]

In a single round medal play event, the higher HCers (as a group) have a better chance because it's much easier for a 20 HCer to shoot 85 than it is for a 3 HCer to shoot 68.

I think in medal play the lower HCer regains the advantage when the competition is 3 or more rounds.

I think head-to-head match play or a group tournament with Stableford scoring lessens the higher HCer's advantage. I played in a regular Saturday Stableford group (not using GHIN but rather a points-average HCP system) and it seemed that anyone who played well had a chance to win.

I'd argue the opposite.  Higher hcp golfers are much more inconsistent, and they tend to have blow up holes that contribute to that high hcp.  In match play, a blow up hole is just one hole lost and they move on......getting strokes on most, if not all holes.

I'd much rather play a high hcp in stroke play where every stroke counts, even for a single round.

[Meltdwhiskey]

I never realized this.  Is the general thought here that the HC system doesn't work very well and rewards the higher caps more?

Or is it just in the math when there are a lot of people involved?  That the more high caps you get in the tourney, the more chances one of them has a fluke great day.

I'd think that due to a higher cap's less consistent play, that if an 18 played a 5 ten times, the 5 five would win more of the matches.  The 18's cap would be lowered by these once in a while brilliant rounds they turn in.

[k-troop]

I'd argue the opposite.  Higher hcp golfers are much more inconsistent, and they tend to have blow up holes that contribute to that high hcp.  In match play, a blow up hole is just one hole lost and they move on......getting strokes on most, if not all holes. I'd much rather play a high hcp in stroke play where every stroke counts, even for a single round.

You do agree though that a 20 is more likely to shoot 85 than a 3 is to shoot 68 in a single round right? The match play thing is probably specific to me and mostly mental. I tend to get loose off of the tee and can card a triple (or more likely a pair of doubles) while shooting 76. My goal in every round is to keep 6 off of the card--if I can do that I'll rarely shoot higher than 77 and frequently closer to 72.

[David in FL]

You do agree though that a 20 is more likely to shoot 85 than a 3 is to shoot 68 in a single round right?

The match play thing is probably specific to me and mostly mental. I tend to get loose off of the tee and can card a triple (or more likely a pair of doubles) while shooting 76. My goal in every round is to keep 6 off of the card--if I can do that I'll rarely shoot higher than 77 and frequently closer to 72.

Absolutely, but that's still a relative rarity for him.  He's also going to tend to get more pars and bogies with a stroke (or two) than I'm likely to get birdies, and that's what beats you in match play.

The guys that really kill you are the damn 12 hcps that throw 2 triples and a quad into every round and play to a 5 the remaining 15 holes!   That's why I really like to see 80% hcp in match play.

[iacas]

I agree that high handicappers tend to have the advantage over 18 holes of match play because (let's imagine all par fours) an 18 will get scores like this:

5 4 5 8 5 5 6 5 4

That would mean that a scratch golfer needs five pars just to halve five holes, and birdies just to halve two of the holes, so that's -2 on seven holes, with the other two being wins (though one of them only with a par).

[MEfree]

I never realized this.  Is the general thought here that the HC system doesn't work very well and rewards the higher caps more?

Or is it just in the math when there are a lot of people involved?  That the more high caps you get in the tourney, the more chances one of them has a fluke great day.

I'd think that due to a higher cap's less consistent play, that if an 18 played a 5 ten times, the 5 five would win more of the matches.  The 18's cap would be lowered by these once in a while brilliant rounds they turn in.

I think the handicap system works best for one on one matches and can be ok for both stroke play or match play.  But remember, the handicap system is designed to calculate a players POTENTIAL- this is why Equitable Stroke Control and best 10 out of last 20 rounds are used.

So a guy who shoots 90 every round with no ESC will be the same HC as a guy who shoot five ESC 85s, five 95s and ten 96+.

Some formats reward more consistent golfers while other formats reward less consistent players.  All team or group events that count a single low ball (or even two low out of four as is the case with the OP) have a bias towards the less consistent players (which tend to be the higher cappers).  This is why many clubs will play a game like partner best ball at 80% of HC.  Playing something like a scramble at the full average handicap of the group would create a huge bias towards groups with higher HCs (or a mix of HCs)

[Fourputt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parker0065

It would be fun!

I would rather lose like a man than win like a bitch!

I don't feel all that manly when I wipe up the course with my 12 hcp buddy straight up. I'd rather give him his 7 or 8 strokes and have to work for my win.

But maybe that's just me......

No you aren't alone.  Most of us lack the huge ego that Parker seems to have.

Quote:

Originally Posted by k-troop

In a single round medal play event, the higher HCers (as a group) have a better chance because it's much easier for a 20 HCer to shoot 85 than it is for a 3 HCer to shoot 68.

I think in medal play the lower HCer regains the advantage when the competition is 3 or more rounds.

I think head-to-head match play or a group tournament with Stableford scoring lessens the higher HCer's advantage. I played in a regular Saturday Stableford group (not using GHIN but rather a points-average HCP system) and it seemed that anyone who played well had a chance to win.

I'd argue the opposite.  Higher hcp golfers are much more inconsistent, and they tend to have blow up holes that contribute to that high hcp.  In match play, a blow up hole is just one hole lost and they move on......getting strokes on most, if not all holes.

I'd much rather play a high hcp in stroke play where every stroke counts, even for a single round.

One on one, yes, I'll take on the high handicapper (back when I was a 10 I played and won matches against guys when I had to give 20+ strokes - lost a few too. - worked out about even so that tells me that the system was working).  But in a larger group the odds swing against the better player because of the very good chance that at least one of the high caps is likely to shoot an exceptional round.

I never realized this.  Is the general thought here that the HC system doesn't work very well and rewards the higher caps more?

Or is it just in the math when there are a lot of people involved?  That the more high caps you get in the tourney, the more chances one of them has a fluke great day.

I'd think that due to a higher cap's less consistent play, that if an 18 played a 5 ten times, the 5 five would win more of the matches.  The 18's cap would be lowered by these once in a while brilliant rounds they turn in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by k-troop

You do agree though that a 20 is more likely to shoot 85 than a 3 is to shoot 68 in a single round right?

The match play thing is probably specific to me and mostly mental. I tend to get loose off of the tee and can card a triple (or more likely a pair of doubles) while shooting 76. My goal in every round is to keep 6 off of the card--if I can do that I'll rarely shoot higher than 77 and frequently closer to 72.

Absolutely, but that's still a relative rarity for him.  He's also going to tend to get more pars and bogies with a stroke (or two) than I'm likely to get birdies, and that's what beats you in match play.

The guys that really kill you are the damn 12 hcps that throw 2 triples and a quad into every round and play to a 5 the remaining 15 holes!   That's why I really like to see 80% hcp in match play.

It's for this reason that handicaps (often in the range of 80% to 90% of course handicap) work very well in head to head or 2 on 2 matches.  For larger fields in stroke play, the tournament should be flighted so that players are only playing against others of their own relative skill.  In most of those cases the play should be scratch within the flight.  If it's necessary to decide an ultimate winner from a widely spread field, then you may have a problem unless it can be scheduled so that the flight winners play elimination matches to find a champion.

[skywaterbanjo]

Great discussion, thanks

[Linthorpe]

Anyone else experience this and, if so, what did you do about it?  Switch groups?  Don't bet?

Mark in Colorado

I know exactly how you feel Mark, there are about eight of us who play with a small 'winner takes all' pot. A couple of us lower guys always tend to play around our HC but the higher's tend to take it in turns to have a great day and take the cash.

[rkim291968]

I worked really hard (lots of practice, lessons, etc.) to get my handicap below 10 this year.  I've been playing golf for 9 years and that was my goal.  So, now that I am (was until today) a 7.8, I felt really good.

However, I play in a couple of men's groups each week.  I turned into the lowest handicap in the group.  Most are in the 12-21 range.  I now find that to win a skin (net) or even to be on a winning team (2 low net out of 4) is nearly impossible, no matter how well I shoot.  One of the high hc'ers has a great day and I no longer feel competitive.  Even the pro at our shop says it is very hard for a low hc'er to effectively compete with the high ones.  I love playing with these guys because they are so nice but I'm frustrated losing every week.

Anyone else experience this and, if so, what did you do about it?  Switch groups?  Don't bet?

Thanks

Mark in Colorado

From my bowling league days, a team didn't get the 100% handicap points vs better team.   I think this prevented from bad (and improving) teams from winning all the time.    I never played Golf competition so I don't know if that's the case for golf.   If not, that'd be unfair.

[phan52]

Heading out now for the first round in our net Club Championship (second round and combined scores for top 16 and ties). My index is the lowest it's been in two years so I'm not all that hopeful, but it DOES mean that I have been playing better. Some nice rounds have brought the 'cap down, but a few 90's sprinkled in as well, so who knows? Wish me luck. I'll report back tomorrow.

[David in FL]

Heading out now for the first round in our net Club Championship (second round and combined scores for top 16 and ties). My index is the lowest it's been in two years so I'm not all that hopeful, but it DOES mean that I have been playing better. Some nice rounds have brought the 'cap down, but a few 90's sprinkled in as well, so who knows? Wish me luck. I'll report back tomorrow.

Good luck.....go kick some ass!

[phan52]

Heading out now for the first round in our net Club Championship (second round and combined scores for top 16 and ties). My index is the lowest it's been in two years so I'm not all that hopeful, but it DOES mean that I have been playing better. Some nice rounds have brought the 'cap down, but a few 90's sprinkled in as well, so who knows? Wish me luck. I'll report back tomorrow.

Very disappointed in my play yesterday. I got on a bogey train early because of some loose approach shots and then hit my 5-iron approach OB (hosel rocket!) on the 7th hole and made a triple. I got back into it a little by going even par over the next five holes and was close to the cut line if I could finish strong. Didn't happen. Two bad doubles (one a three putt, one a poor bunker shot) and I ended up missing the cut by three shots. Worst round in weeks. If I just shot 84 or lower I would have made the cut for the second round, and I've been doing that in my sleep lately. The field is very bunched up and all the qualifiers have a shot to win. This is my favorite tournament and I have qualified for the second round many times and finished in the top 5 four times, but just can't win it. I thought this might be the year.

There's always next year.

[Linthorpe]

There's always next year.

I think that I can sum up my complete season with that phrase, I had hoped to drop a couple of shots but I have gone up a full one instead.