Golf stats and correlation to average score vs. handicap

[Lihu]

I get the verbal nomenclature of 'plus' and 'minus' handicap, but it seems opposite to the number that actually spits out of the handicap calculation process below. Given his putting stats I didn't think @Nosevi was a likely 'plus' two but more in the range of a positive / unsigned '2'. I guess he plays really long courses that would get a course rating upwards of 75. Still seems like a big disconnect with his driving & GIR, though, which is likely also affecting his putting.

We were not reading the plots correctly. He cleared this up in a previous post. They are the performance above or below a +2 handicap. For instance, his absolute GIR is around 60%, and it shows up "only" a little higher than the average +2 handicap.

[natureboy]

We were not reading the plots correctly. He cleared this up in a previous post. They are the performance above or below a +2 handicap. For instance, his absolute GIR is around 60%, and it shows up "only" a little higher than the average +2 handicap.

Yeah, but his fairways hit was 71% over 10 rounds with driving distance potential up in the pro range. I would expect a much more above average GIR (~ high 70's low 80's absolute %) too - unless the iron game is also a weakness. Consistently carrying the ball 280 yards roughly equates with a USGA 'plus' 3-4 handicap, especially if he is hitting fairways at 71% with driver. He may have been using irons and not hitting it as far, which might explain a less outstanding, but still very good GIR % on a long, tough course.

Is @Nosevi the 'Hotchkin' guy? At 7100 yards that's about right for someone with his drive distance - not overwhelmingly huge. Can't be wind because it would affect the driving accuracy even more. Could be miniscule greens or shooting too much at tight pin locations.

His PPGIR corresponds more with his posted profile HCP of roughly a USGA '3' to '5' or negative 3 to negative 5 using the generally accepted terms.

[Nosevi]

Yeah, but his fairways hit was 71% over 10 rounds with driving distance potential up in the pro range. I would expect a much more above average GIR (~ high 70's low 80's absolute %) too - unless the iron game is also a weakness. Consistently carrying the ball 280 yards roughly equates with a USGA 'plus' 3-4 handicap, especially if he is hitting fairways at 71% with driver. He may have been using irons and not hitting it as far, which might explain a less outstanding, but still very good GIR % on a long, tough course.

Is @Nosevi the 'Hotchkin' guy? At 7100 yards that's about right for someone with his drive distance - not overwhelmingly huge. Can't be wind because it would affect the driving accuracy even more. Could be miniscule greens or shooting too much at tight pin locations.

His PPGIR corresponds more with his posted profile HCP of roughly a USGA '3' to '5' or negative 3 to negative 5 using the generally accepted terms.

Irons being a "weakness" is a little harsh - it's effectively only a year since I got my initial handicap

Like I said, wasn't meant to be an intricate look at my stats, I was just using them as an example, I'll try to answer your question though.

I'm not a member at Woodhall Spa but do know the Hotchkin course there and it demonstrates why some stats need to be taken in context. I've noticed that over there GIR is often higher than fairways hit but that's rarely the case here. This is the rough on the Hotchkin and it demonstrates why (you can see a 'fairway bunker' just in shot - this is right next to the fairway). If you miss the fairway by more than the semi (just a couple of yards) you're not going at the green.

My course is not quite as penal for an errant drive as the Hotchkin but it's close off some fairways. While in the states many course's biggest defences are their length, here it's often about what happens when you get it wrong and get out of position.

So take my stats - on a average round I'm hitting about 10 fairways out of a possible 14 ie I'm messing it up 4 times. As far as GIR is concerned those 4 tee shots are pretty much out of the equation and wether I make par is more to do with my short game. I'm then hitting round about 11 greens in regulation out of my 10 good tee shots on the par 4s & par 5s, and 4x par 3 holes. In other words, given I've sometimes got 14 legitimate attempts at the green for regulation, I'm missing 3.

So strickly looking at iron play and accuracy if I'm hitting 11 out of 14 shots at the green that would give me an accuracy of about 79%. And yes, sometimes I'm missing because I'm going for daft pins but hopefully I'll learn.

I hope that all makes sense - GIR vs fairways hit all depends on what faces you when you miss the fairway. If it's manicured rough at just a few inches high it's one thing but if you're on the Hotchkin you're lucky to find your ball, very lucky to get a club on it and if you manage to advance it 150 yards or more it's frankly a fluke.

Anyway, that's probably about enough about my stats - I'll try harder with my irons from now on though

[natureboy]

Irons being a "weakness" is a little harsh - it's effectively only a year since I got my initial handicap

Like I said, wasn't meant to be an intricate look at my stats, I was just using them as an example, I'll try to answer your question though.

I'm not a member at Woodhall Spa but do know the Hotchkin course there and it demonstrates why some stats need to be taken in context. I've noticed that over there GIR is often higher than fairways hit but that's rarely the case here. This is the rough on the Hotchkin and it demonstrates why (you can see a 'fairway bunker' just in shot - this is right next to the fairway). If you miss the fairway by more than the semi (just a couple of yards) you're not going at the green.

My course is not quite as penal for an errant drive as the Hotchkin but it's close off some fairways. While in the states many course's biggest defences are their length, here it's often about what happens when you get it wrong and get out of position.

So take my stats - on a average round I'm hitting about 10 fairways out of a possible 14 ie I'm messing it up 4 times. As far as GIR is concerned those 4 tee shots are pretty much out of the equation and wether I make par is more to do with my short game. I'm then hitting round about 11 greens in regulation out of my 10 good tee shots on the par 4s & par 5s, and 4x par 3 holes. In other words, given I've sometimes got 14 legitimate attempts at the green for regulation, I'm missing 3.

So strickly looking at iron play and accuracy if I'm hitting 11 out of 14 shots at the green that would give me an accuracy of about 79%. And yes, sometimes I'm missing because I'm going for daft pins but hopefully I'll learn.

I hope that all makes sense - GIR vs fairways hit all depends on what faces you when you miss the fairway. If it's manicured rough at just a few inches high it's one thing but if you're on the Hotchkin you're lucky to find your ball, very lucky to get a club on it and if you manage to advance it 150 yards or more it's frankly a fluke.

Anyway, that's probably about enough about my stats - I'll try harder with my irons from now on though

No harshness intended. I should have used the qualifier 'relative weakness' in comparison with your enviable driving accuracy and prodigious distance.

Since you have power to spare, did you achieve the 71% driving accuracy by hitting a lot of irons off the tee, or was that mostly with driver or 3-wood? My point was that if you are that accurate with the driver the GIR should be similarly well above average too because the high share of long drives on the short grass are giving you a big advantage in having a short approach to the green since the course isn't extremely long - and with your power you should be hitting less club than a player like myself to the par-3s. I think that applies even if you assume that a missed fairways gives you an automatic missed green (hitting out of Heather does look nasty).

Just trying to make some inferences from the numbers per the thread. Listen to the local pro or your coach as to whether irons actually need extra work.

And per the Handicap index nomenclature questions I submit this chart from a paper Dave Pelz did indicating that better than scratch 'plus' handicaps are actually written with a negative sign per the USGA (hence my confusion about your reference):

The very low handicap players don't have extremely high GIR, but I think the way Pelz charted this stat is off. I think that GIR tracks well with scoring average per the course rating. In other words a USGA -5 / 'plus 5' handicap is likely to have an average score around 67-68 on a course rated 72 with a much higher GIR than they average on the much longer and harder tournament courses they play. Driving distance and accuracy (degrees offline) track well with handicap and GIR tracks with handicap per a particular course rating. Pros average the 60%+ GIR on courses that are 3+ shots tougher than the 'typical' course mid and high handicap amateurs play

[Nosevi]

No harshness intended. I should have used the qualifier 'relative weakness' in comparison with your enviable driving accuracy and prodigious distance.

Since you have power to spare, did you achieve the 71% driving accuracy by hitting a lot of irons off the tee, or was that mostly with driver or 3-wood? My point was that if you are that accurate with the driver the GIR should be similarly well above average too because the high share of long drives on the short grass are giving you a big advantage in having a short approach to the green since the course isn't extremely long - and with your power you should be hitting less club than a player like myself to the par-3s. I think that applies even if you assume that a missed fairways gives you an automatic missed green (hitting out of Heather does look nasty).

Just trying to make some inferences from the numbers per the thread. Listen to the local pro or your coach as to whether irons actually need extra work.

Don't worry, didn't take offence, was just messing with you

To answer your question, given the courses I play and the fact that hitting the fairway holds a high premium (or rather missing it a big penalty) I tend to use whatever club keeps me out of trouble yet gets me close enough to the green to have a legitimate shot at it. At first I pulled driver on pretty much every hole other than the par 3s, now I look at the hole, look at the wind, look at the trouble and pull the club that puts me in a good position for my second shot. Quite often a driver as I can often carry the trouble but sometimes a 5 wood or iron if the hole's tight and I can live with being a bit further back. Someone playing a course where they can happily take a mid iron from the rough will more than likely pull driver all day as the penalty for an errant tee shot just isn't the same as constantly risking a lost ball or one so burried you can berely get a club on it.

I suppose it goes back to what you said near the beginning - some stats are dependant on the course being played. Fairways hit might be lowered by the width of the fairways but also, for the smart player, what waits for you should you miss it may force you to play more conservatively.

[RFKFREAK]

This thread is pretty eye opening.

[natureboy]

Don't worry, didn't take offence, was just messing with you

To answer your question, given the courses I play and the fact that hitting the fairway holds a high premium (or rather missing it a big penalty) I tend to use whatever club keeps me out of trouble yet gets me close enough to the green to have a legitimate shot at it. At first I pulled driver on pretty much every hole other than the par 3s, now I look at the hole, look at the wind, look at the trouble and pull the club that puts me in a good position for my second shot. Quite often a driver as I can often carry the trouble but sometimes a 5 wood or iron if the hole's tight and I can live with being a bit further back. Someone playing a course where they can happily take a mid iron from the rough will more than likely pull driver all day as the penalty for an errant tee shot just isn't the same as constantly risking a lost ball or one so burried you can berely get a club on it.

I suppose it goes back to what you said near the beginning - some stats are dependant on the course being played. Fairways hit might be lowered by the width of the fairways but also, for the smart player, what waits for you should you miss it may force you to play more conservatively.

I thought you might be employing that approach. An advantage that length affords you. That probably explains much of the disconnect between your GIR and your Fairway %.

What is your GIR on par-3s? What is their average length from the tees you play?

[Nosevi]

I thought you might be employing that approach. An advantage that length affords you. That probably explains much of the disconnect between your GIR and your Fairway %.

What is your GIR on par-3s? What is their average length from the tees you play?

I think we might be looking at my stats a bit too much rather than at stats in general but I guess I did post them up so will continue to be a 'test case' if you like. The thing is my play is improving in different areas at different rates so I may not be the best person to choose.

Ok, taken from my last 5 rounds:

The average length of the par 3s from the tees I play is 168 yards and my GIR percentage on them is 60% - I know just shoot at the middle and I'll hit more, but where's the fun in that

My par 3 scoring performance over those rounds is 3.2 and my scrambling from around the greens on those par 3s is 62.5%. It's higher than my overall scrambling percentage as that includes failing to get 'up and down' on a par 4 where I'm a long way back having visited the rough or something similar but on the par 3s, in those rounds I've been on the green or greenside every time, I've not really mucked up a shot into the green. Sandsaves for those 5 rounds actually stands at 75% and this has helped the overall stats - had a great lesson from a tour pro not long back and my stats in this area went skywards compared to before, went from hardly getting any to pretty sure I'll be able to get up and down from the sand in a matter of a few weeks (and lots of time in the practice bunker) - now I just need him to teach me how to putt, that's probably the biggest difference between what I'm scoring and what I should be scoring right now.

Anyway, that's my stats as they stand but like I said, I'm not the best test case - my game is moving forwards in different areas at different times, I practice/play full time and have some pretty good help.  Looking at how stats correlate to handicap etc it'd probably be better looking at someone in a more 'normal' situation.

[natureboy]

I think we might be looking at my stats a bit too much rather than at stats in general but I guess I did post them up so will continue to be a 'test case' if you like. The thing is my play is improving in different areas at different rates so I may not be the best person to choose.

Ok, taken from my last 5 rounds:

The average length of the par 3s from the tees I play is 168 yards and my GIR percentage on them is 60% - I know just shoot at the middle and I'll hit more, but where's the fun in that

My par 3 scoring performance over those rounds is 3.2 and my scrambling from around the greens on those par 3s is 62.5%. It's higher than my overall scrambling percentage as that includes failing to get 'up and down' on a par 4 where I'm a long way back having visited the rough or something similar but on the par 3s, in those rounds I've been on the green or greenside every time, I've not really mucked up a shot into the green. Sandsaves for those 5 rounds actually stands at 75% and this has helped the overall stats - had a great lesson from a tour pro not long back and my stats in this area went skywards compared to before, went from hardly getting any to pretty sure I'll be able to get up and down from the sand in a matter of a few weeks (and lots of time in the practice bunker) - now I just need him to teach me how to putt, that's probably the biggest difference between what I'm scoring and what I should be scoring right now.

Anyway, that's my stats as they stand but like I said, I'm not the best test case - my game is moving forwards in different areas at different times, I practice/play full time and have some pretty good help.  Looking at how stats correlate to handicap etc it'd probably be better looking at someone in a more 'normal' situation.

I appreciate the chance to make some inferences relative to some real stats.

The average length of the par-3s is a touch short for your handicap and quite short for the distance you can generate. A +2 player is more typically shooting at par-3s in the 185 yard (average) range. The par-3 GIR is good and in the range for your current handicap - even better if you are shooting to smaller than average sized greens and considering you are shooting at tucked pins. If your lag putting is decent for your handicap, though, that aggressive strategy is probably raising your average score due to your current iron accuracy.

Your scrambling % around the green is excellent, but perhaps raised a few points bit by the shorter than typical par-3 distance (for your HCP / length off tee). Per the thread, do you find you have a harder time getting up & down on a missed green from the fairway on longer holes or is it about the same? What's the scrambling rate on par-4 & par-5 holes when you hit the fairway but miss the green? A 75% sand save rate is outstanding for a course where the typical scratch player would have a 72 score average.

Overall, it looks to me like your putting is your biggest weakness followed by tightening up your iron accuracy, and possibly short game depending on your par-4 & par-5 scrambling. Iron accuracy / consistency is big because fractional improvements also improve your PPGIR and U/D numbers by virtue of being closer to the hole on each shot. This is one of the reasons that I think up & down % is reflective of handicap (if you are playing from the appropriate length tees). It reflects both accuracy at a distance (degrees offline) as well as short game touch.

[Nosevi]

I appreciate the chance to make some inferences relative to some real stats.

The average length of the par-3s is a touch short for your handicap and quite short for the distance you can generate. A +2 player is more typically shooting at par-3s in the 185 yard (average) range. The par-3 GIR is good and in the range for your current handicap - even better if you are shooting to smaller than average sized greens and considering you are shooting at tucked pins. If your lag putting is decent for your handicap, though, that aggressive strategy is probably raising your average score due to your current iron accuracy.

Your scrambling % around the green is excellent, but perhaps raised a few points bit by the shorter than typical par-3 distance (for your HCP / length off tee). Per the thread, do you find you have a harder time getting up & down on a missed green from the fairway on longer holes or is it about the same? What's the scrambling rate on par-4 & par-5 holes when you hit the fairway but miss the green? A 75% sand save rate is outstanding for a course where the typical scratch player would have a 72 score average.

Overall, it looks to me like your putting is your biggest weakness followed by tightening up your iron accuracy, and possibly short game depending on your par-4 & par-5 scrambling. Iron accuracy / consistency is big because fractional improvements also improve your PPGIR and U/D numbers by virtue of being closer to the hole on each shot. This is one of the reasons that I think up & down % is reflective of handicap (if you are playing from the appropriate length tees). It reflects both accuracy at a distance (degrees offline) as well as short game touch.

No probs.

Ok, gone back into the stats and my up and down ratio is a bit lower when I hit the fairway but miss the green on par 4s and 5s (although from my stats I can't tell if I hit the fairway with a layup on a par 5 but think I did pretty much every time. Anyway, my up and down ratio on the longer holes is 58.3% so not quite as good as the par 3s.

One thing I would say about the length of par 3s is that one of the easiest on par 3 on one of the two courses I'm a member of is about 210 yards and by far the most difficult is about 150 yards. The 210 yard one is all in front of you - you go over a tree lined ditch in front of the green but as long as you didn't thin it and you have the length you're hitting into a green slightly below you but that slopes towards you. It's reasonably wide, bunkers either side are pretty 'tame' and there's a bit of room around the green if you're off line. The 150 yard one is a tight green that angles across you with an 8 foot deep bunker in front, out of bounds down the left and behind, heavy rough to the right and the green slopes so steeply away from you that when you're putting, a tap of the ball at the top will take the ball all the way down to the bottom about 90 feet away. into wind it's a challenge, out of wind trying to hold the green is next to impossible. My scoring average is far lower on the 210 yard hole than the 150 yard hole. Length isn't everything ....... at least not in golf anyway.

Your assessment that putting is (currently) my biggest weakness is spot on. It's backed up by what Golfshots thinks but also what I leaned out in my first ever match today, I said I'd post on my thread about it but essentially my (and my partner's) putting cost us dear. Iron play is a tough one as I feel as if I'm on the cusp of a breakthrough there - my coach has me doing a new visualisation thing which I've really only committed to once and got good results (actually missed 1 green in a whole round but at the easier of the two courses I play). It's wacky and involves totally getting into a 'bubble', blocking out everything external to me, the ball and my swing but I had such good results when I managed to do it I can't help but feel it could help. Putting - yep I'm dreadful. Starting tomorrow I'm committing to putting practice every day of the week on top of what I'm doing now. I'll get there :)

[natureboy]

No probs.

Ok, gone back into the stats and my up and down ratio is a bit lower when I hit the fairway but miss the green on par 4s and 5s (although from my stats I can't tell if I hit the fairway with a layup on a par 5 but think I did pretty much every time. Anyway, my up and down ratio on the longer holes is 58.3% so not quite as good as the par 3s.

One thing I would say about the length of par 3s is that one of the easiest on par 3 on one of the two courses I'm a member of is about 210 yards and by far the most difficult is about 150 yards. The 210 yard one is all in front of you - you go over a tree lined ditch in front of the green but as long as you didn't thin it and you have the length you're hitting into a green slightly below you but that slopes towards you. It's reasonably wide, bunkers either side are pretty 'tame' and there's a bit of room around the green if you're off line. The 150 yard one is a tight green that angles across you with an 8 foot deep bunker in front, out of bounds down the left and behind, heavy rough to the right and the green slopes so steeply away from you that when you're putting, a tap of the ball at the top will take the ball all the way down to the bottom about 90 feet away. into wind it's a challenge, out of wind trying to hold the green is next to impossible. My scoring average is far lower on the 210 yard hole than the 150 yard hole. Length isn't everything ....... at least not in golf anyway.

Your assessment that putting is (currently) my biggest weakness is spot on. It's backed up by what Golfshots thinks but also what I leaned out in my first ever match today, I said I'd post on my thread about it but essentially my (and my partner's) putting cost us dear. Iron play is a tough one as I feel as if I'm on the cusp of a breakthrough there - my coach has me doing a new visualisation thing which I've really only committed to once and got good results (actually missed 1 green in a whole round but at the easier of the two courses I play). It's wacky and involves totally getting into a 'bubble', blocking out everything external to me, the ball and my swing but I had such good results when I managed to do it I can't help but feel it could help. Putting - yep I'm dreadful. Starting tomorrow I'm committing to putting practice every day of the week on top of what I'm doing now. I'll get there :)

That greenside up & down % is still very good. Also with your rough the way it is, it is probably not advisable to aim at tucked pins unless there is a decently wide collar around the green. Distance and accuracy both matter. Distance is slightly more important, because for each club less you have in your proximity should increase. Also, you have more options in going for a shot and you can always take more loft to lower your lateral dispersion from the tee. Distance gives you options. I think that's why Furyk doesn't close out tournaments frequently. He doesn't really have the option to take a calculated risk to manufacture a birdie when he needs it the way longer hitters can so the field often catches up to him in the final round.

Maybe start with is your lag putting. With excellent distance control you can use (or have the option on tough pins) the safer strategy of aiming for the middle of the green and avoiding the junk with an expectation of a rare three putt, but still get your share that land close to the pin. Also there are some helpful threads on here about putting technique and strategy.

That 150 yard par 3 sounds borderline unfair. Am I correct in visualizing a green that is canted away from the tee such that it will tend to bounce toward the OB? What do the club pros say is the right strategy to tackle it - besides praying? That probably backs up your point that your GIR is lower, because you are shooting at pins (and farther back due to shorter clubs off the tee) more than irons being a relative weakness.

Per the thread, how does your fairway % respond when you play on a much longer course? Does it drop because you can't take iron off the tee as much or not much at all, because you get proportionally wider fairways? How about the reverse on a shorter course. Do the fairways tend to get narrower, or stay about the same?

[Nosevi]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nosevi

No probs.

Ok, gone back into the stats and my up and down ratio is a bit lower when I hit the fairway but miss the green on par 4s and 5s (although from my stats I can't tell if I hit the fairway with a layup on a par 5 but think I did pretty much every time. Anyway, my up and down ratio on the longer holes is 58.3% so not quite as good as the par 3s.

One thing I would say about the length of par 3s is that one of the easiest on par 3 on one of the two courses I'm a member of is about 210 yards and by far the most difficult is about 150 yards. The 210 yard one is all in front of you - you go over a tree lined ditch in front of the green but as long as you didn't thin it and you have the length you're hitting into a green slightly below you but that slopes towards you. It's reasonably wide, bunkers either side are pretty 'tame' and there's a bit of room around the green if you're off line. The 150 yard one is a tight green that angles across you with an 8 foot deep bunker in front, out of bounds down the left and behind, heavy rough to the right and the green slopes so steeply away from you that when you're putting, a tap of the ball at the top will take the ball all the way down to the bottom about 90 feet away. into wind it's a challenge, out of wind trying to hold the green is next to impossible. My scoring average is far lower on the 210 yard hole than the 150 yard hole. Length isn't everything ....... at least not in golf anyway.

Your assessment that putting is (currently) my biggest weakness is spot on. It's backed up by what Golfshots thinks but also what I leaned out in my first ever match today, I said I'd post on my thread about it but essentially my (and my partner's) putting cost us dear. Iron play is a tough one as I feel as if I'm on the cusp of a breakthrough there - my coach has me doing a new visualisation thing which I've really only committed to once and got good results (actually missed 1 green in a whole round but at the easier of the two courses I play). It's wacky and involves totally getting into a 'bubble', blocking out everything external to me, the ball and my swing but I had such good results when I managed to do it I can't help but feel it could help. Putting - yep I'm dreadful. Starting tomorrow I'm committing to putting practice every day of the week on top of what I'm doing now. I'll get there :)

That greenside up & down % is still very good. Also with your rough the way it is, it is probably not advisable to aim at tucked pins unless there is a decently wide collar around the green. Distance and accuracy both matter. Distance is slightly more important, because for each club less you have in your proximity should increase. Also, you have more options in going for a shot and you can always take more loft to lower your lateral dispersion from the tee. Distance gives you options. I think that's why Furyk doesn't close out tournaments frequently. He doesn't really have the option to take a calculated risk to manufacture a birdie when he needs it the way longer hitters can so the field often catches up to him in the final round.

Maybe start with is your lag putting. With excellent distance control you can use (or have the option on tough pins) the safer strategy of aiming for the middle of the green and avoiding the junk with an expectation of a rare three putt, but still get your share that land close to the pin. Also there are some helpful threads on here about putting technique and strategy.

That 150 yard par 3 sounds borderline unfair. Am I correct in visualizing a green that is canted away from the tee such that it will tend to bounce toward the OB? What do the club pros say is the right strategy to tackle it - besides praying? That probably backs up your point that your GIR is lower, because you are shooting at pins (and farther back due to shorter clubs off the tee) more than irons being a relative weakness.

Per the thread, how does your fairway % respond when you play on a much longer course? Does it drop because you can't take iron off the tee as much or not much at all, because you get proportionally wider fairways? How about the reverse on a shorter course. Do the fairways tend to get narrower, or stay about the same?

Thanks for the tip on the putting, really need to put in some effort here. A guy  over in the States who looks after my stats is putting together some ways of analysing them and putting is a big part of that moving forward into the spring. Scoring wise I rarely 3 putt....... the snag is I very rarely hole birdie putts and that's hurting my scores.

This is the short par 3 I was talking about. It's not too bad when the green is soft or into wind but in the summer and down wind it's not an easy hole. You tee off from the blue X and you're aiming to fade it in (for a right hander) to that top section of green even though the pin will be somewhere towards the bottom. If you go long and over club you're off the back and it slopes down towards heavy rough and the trees beyond. The white line marks the out of bounds so you don't want to get it wrong and block one left. The green slopes front to back along the red arrow so you're trying to land the ball in the blue circle and let it feed down to the hole at the bottom. The green X is a deep bunker though and you don't want to be in there although in fairness a bunker shot out of there tends to feed down towards the bottom of the green. Your 'bail out' area is the green oval but that's very uneven rough and it's a lottery what sort of lie you'll get, blade it and unless you're 'lucky' and catch the bunker opposite you're out of bounds. Into wind (not usual) it's a totally different hole - you aim more for the heart of the green and with a bit of backspin on the ball you'll have no snags stopping it somewhere near the pin at the bottom.

This hole is on one of my home courses. It's a really short  course but pretty tight and requires you to be able to fade and draw the ball to shoot a low score. My other course is a tad longer at 6650 yards but is also not that open (it's the one with the deep rough I posted earlier) and although oour Standard Scratch Score is different from your course rating, a USGA plus 2 player would be expected to shoot one over par, a scratch player from over there about 3 over par. To be fair I'm not sure if it's that tough........ as long as you use your head, hit the fairway and keep the ball in play.

Regarding how my fairways hit varies between the really short but tight course and the longer but slightly more open one, on the long course it's 73.8% on the shorter one it's 70.0%. I'm hitting driver or 5 wood on the longer course, driver or an iron on the shorter one but the fairways are quite a bit narrower most of the time.

When it comes to stats and the difference they make with tighter courses with penal rough, here's a realy, really extreme example. In the group behind me playing for the other team was a guy who's just come over from the States. Off the tee he was probably the longest guy I've seen, hit driver wedge into a par 5 yesterday (allbeit down wind). He's just had about 18 months off golf and is getting back into it so this will change but he's just got his handicap here of 8. The amazing thing is his handicap in the States was plus 3. Those numbersd are legit. Out there on the courses he was used to he could just pull driver all day, bomb it down there are go play it from where it ended up. Here you have to play a different game and if you miss the fairway, you don't score, it's as simple as that. I think his handicap will tumble as he gets into golf here but right now, playing as he did on courses out there, he's not scoring close to what he did there. His game is built around his length off the tee but here courses defend themselves in a different way with less length but more trouble waiting for you when you get it wrong.

[natureboy]

Thanks for the tip on the putting, really need to put in some effort here. A guy  over in the States who looks after my stats is putting together some ways of analysing them and putting is a big part of that moving forward into the spring. Scoring wise I rarely 3 putt....... the snag is I very rarely hole birdie putts and that's hurting my scores.

This is the short par 3 I was talking about. It's not too bad when the green is soft or into wind but in the summer and down wind it's not an easy hole. You tee off from the blue X and you're aiming to fade it in (for a right hander) to that top section of green even though the pin will be somewhere towards the bottom. If you go long and over club you're off the back and it slopes down towards heavy rough and the trees beyond. The white line marks the out of bounds so you don't want to get it wrong and block one left. The green slopes front to back along the red arrow so you're trying to land the ball in the blue circle and let it feed down to the hole at the bottom. The green X is a deep bunker though and you don't want to be in there although in fairness a bunker shot out of there tends to feed down towards the bottom of the green. Your 'bail out' area is the green oval but that's very uneven rough and it's a lottery what sort of lie you'll get, blade it and unless you're 'lucky' and catch the bunker opposite you're out of bounds. Into wind (not usual) it's a totally different hole - you aim more for the heart of the green and with a bit of backspin on the ball you'll have no snags stopping it somewhere near the pin at the bottom.

This hole is on one of my home courses. It's a really short  course but pretty tight and requires you to be able to fade and draw the ball to shoot a low score. My other course is a tad longer at 6650 yards but is also not that open (it's the one with the deep rough I posted earlier) and although oour Standard Scratch Score is different from your course rating, a USGA plus 2 player would be expected to shoot one over par, a scratch player from over there about 3 over par. To be fair I'm not sure if it's that tough........ as long as you use your head, hit the fairway and keep the ball in play.

Regarding how my fairways hit varies between the really short but tight course and the longer but slightly more open one, on the long course it's 73.8% on the shorter one it's 70.0%. I'm hitting driver or 5 wood on the longer course, driver or an iron on the shorter one but the fairways are quite a bit narrower most of the time.

When it comes to stats and the difference they make with tighter courses with penal rough, here's a realy, really extreme example. In the group behind me playing for the other team was a guy who's just come over from the States. Off the tee he was probably the longest guy I've seen, hit driver wedge into a par 5 yesterday (allbeit down wind). He's just had about 18 months off golf and is getting back into it so this will change but he's just got his handicap here of 8. The amazing thing is his handicap in the States was plus 3. Those numbersd are legit. Out there on the courses he was used to he could just pull driver all day, bomb it down there are go play it from where it ended up. Here you have to play a different game and if you miss the fairway, you don't score, it's as simple as that. I think his handicap will tumble as he gets into golf here but right now, playing as he did on courses out there, he's not scoring close to what he did there. His game is built around his length off the tee but here courses defend themselves in a different way with less length but more trouble waiting for you when you get it wrong.

So not lag putting. Hmm, I would think that with good lag putting and your GIR and Fwy % your PPGIR would be better, even with average technique. Your coaches would know if it's technique or still might be tightening your dispersion around pin so you have more short putts.

Playing a strategy like on the hole you mapped out would make it hard to have birdie putts. It's like you're playing the longest chip imaginable. Playing a fade regularly with the strong possibility of OB with a double-cross probably does wonders for your confidence in that shot shape. Don't understand a hole that is completely canted all the way to the bottom. Is there no flattening toward the back / right? How do they put a fair pin placement on it - or are the greens slow? Looks like a bit of fairway / light rough trim short of the hole and around to the right - certainly no heather - so aiming for the meat of the green with a bounce / roll to the collection area to the right with a pitch / chip uphill seems safer. If you can consistently hit a target like that doormat opening to the tee with a worked shot, I don't see why you aren't making more putts (i.e. very close to the pin - a lot ).

I am not surprised that adjusting to different courses and style of play / strategy after a long layoff would raise an amateur's handicap significantly - as a plus 3 he's probably comparable to a grinder on the Web.com tour. Plus 4 is ~ bottom tier PGA pro & PGA and European pros seem to both be around +5 so his number will likely drop, though slowly as I understand your system tends to emphasize the poor rounds? Is it true only competition rounds count?

How short is your short home course? How much narrower are the fairways - what's the average par-5 par-4 width there and on the long course in your two landing areas? What's the name of the two courses - I want to check 'em out. Makes a difference per the thread, because I have seen numbers from a stats tracking service (see pic) that has high handicap fairway % as very high. Much higher than I would expect if they were playing from the correct set of tees for their handicap. I expect that they are doing your strategy (hitting less club), in order to increase fairway %, but probably on fairly open courses where they would be better off with some extra distance and gambling more on the fairway hit rate.

[iacas]

Maybe I'm missing something, but no way is that thing accurate. 47% GIR for a > 30 handicap? 55% for a 10-15?

This one I can believe:

So… they labeled the axis wrong. It's not GIR%, it's "FIR%". Which is one of the more meaningless statistics out there…

[natureboy]

Maybe I'm missing something, but no way is that thing accurate. 47% GIR for a > 30 handicap? 55% for a 10-15?

This one I can believe:

So… they labeled the axis wrong. It's not GIR%, it's "FIR%". Which is one of the more meaningless statistics out there…

Yes we were talking fairway %. It's in the title and subtitle, but they mislabeled the axis. The Grint's GIR range tracks much better with the stats I've seen.

Yes, fairway % is not well correlated to average score in terms of statistics sets, but with a clear disadvantage to hitting from the rough at a given distance I don't think it's irrelevant to tracking progress.

Possibly one reason is that many amateurs like the Grint population are emphasizing accuracy over distance and taking shorter clubs off the tee at the expense of potential distance / percent of hole length covered. Probably as is regularly pointed out on the site, their strategy is too conservative - providing there isn't a lot of trouble near their likely driver landing area. So statistically they would be hurting their scores and throwing off the correlations of fairways hit to scoring average handicap? They could also be playing very open courses - or a bit of both.

[Golfingdad]

Yes we were talking fairway %. It's in the title and subtitle, but they mislabeled the axis. The Grint's GIR range tracks much better with the stats I've seen. Yes, fairway % is not well correlated to average score in terms of statistics sets, but with a clear disadvantage to hitting from the rough at a given distance I don't think it's irrelevant to tracking progress. Possibly one reason is that many amateurs like the Grint population are emphasizing accuracy over distance and taking shorter clubs off the tee at the expense of potential distance / percent of hole length covered. Probably as is regularly pointed out on the site, their strategy is too conservative - providing there isn't a lot of trouble near their likely driver landing area. So statistically they would be hurting their scores and throwing off the correlations of fairways hit to scoring average handicap? They could also be playing very open courses - or a bit of both.

The graph says that the difference in fairways hit between a guy that shoots par and a guy that can't break 100 is only 2 fairways!! It's pretty clear from that that its a meaningless stat.

[Nosevi]

Quote:

Originally Posted by natureboy

So not lag putting. Hmm, I would think that with good lag putting and your GIR and Fwy % your PPGIR would be better, even with average technique. Your coaches would know if it's technique or still might be tightening your dispersion around pin so you have more short putts.

Playing a strategy like on the hole you mapped out would make it hard to have birdie putts. It's like you're playing the longest chip imaginable. Playing a fade regularly with the strong possibility of OB with a double-cross probably does wonders for your confidence in that shot shape. Don't understand a hole that is completely canted all the way to the bottom. Is there no flattening toward the back / right? How do they put a fair pin placement on it - or are the greens slow? Looks like a bit of fairway / light rough trim short of the hole and around to the right - certainly no heather - so aiming for the meat of the green with a bounce / roll to the collection area to the right with a pitch / chip uphill seems safer. If you can consistently hit a target like that doormat opening to the tee with a worked shot, I don't see why you aren't making more putts (i.e. very close to the pin - a lot ).

I am not surprised that adjusting to different courses and style of play / strategy after a long layoff would raise an amateur's handicap significantly - as a plus 3 he's probably comparable to a grinder on the Web.com tour. Plus 4 is ~ bottom tier PGA pro & PGA and European pros seem to both be around +5 so his number will likely drop, though slowly as I understand your system tends to emphasize the poor rounds? Is it true only competition rounds count?

How short is your short home course? How much narrower are the fairways - what's the average par-5 par-4 width there and on the long course in your two landing areas? What's the name of the two courses - I want to check 'em out. Makes a difference per the thread, because I have seen numbers from a stats tracking service (see pic) that has high handicap fairway % as very high. Much higher than I would expect if they were playing from the correct set of tees for their handicap. I expect that they are doing your strategy (hitting less club), in order to increase fairway %, but probably on fairly open courses where they would be better off with some extra distance and gambling more on the fairway hit rate.

I've been out on the course this morning thinking about how to respond to the request for more info about where I play etc and I'm a little reticent. I'm a pretty private person and my small club especially is pretty small. So much so that if I post where it is, in 5 minutes anyone reading this could go to the club's site, look at my handicap, look at the fixtures, and work out who I am. Not really a big deal but that would lead them to my Gamegolf account, my Golfshots account, my Facebook, my Twitter account, work out who the pros I play with are (we chat via Twitter now and then)...... even my address if they decided they wanted to know it. I really don't want what I'm doing to turn into a Dan Plan Mark 2 with people looking over my shoulder all the time. Maybe I'll feel differently in a year or so but for now, right at the start I'd like to stay a bit 'coy' about it if that's ok? Hope that doesn't disappoint you I'm just not really the sort of person who likes the attention and certainly don't want people discussing it every time I hit a shank off the first tee.

That said I'll try answer some questions you've asked and hopefully that'll be enough

That strategy for that par 3 is just a percentage play. The top section slopes down gently, the middle steeply and the bottom gently to flat. It you fire at the pin at the bottom and hit the middle of the green you're off the back and down into the trees and rough. If you go long you're off the back and into the trees and the rough. If you leak it a bit left you're out of bounds and if you're right the lie down there is a lottery. That said, into wind you may well take the flag on. Down wind though if you aim at that top left corner and hit anywhere on it with a fade the ball tends to collect down towards the bottom. miss left and you're short of the out of bounds, miss right and the bunker shot is a splash onto the down slope and the ball will roll down towards the pin. The play I've said, particularly out of wind, keeps the big numbers off the card but you're right - you're not really giving yourself a lot of shots at birdies on this hole.

Regarding the 2 course that I play the most, the bigger one is, like I said, a little over 6650 yards off the back so not massively long but the rough keeps you honest. I'm pretty straight with my driver and I find many holes are pretty generous though and the fairways are about 25 yards wide (measured just now :) ). The course rating under your system would probably be the region of 74.0 . The smaller course is a little 9 hole course so you go round the same 9 twice and is right near my house so I use it to practice quite a bit. It's a par 68 so has 6 par 3s and only 2 par 5s (3 and 1 each time) so you lose maybe 500 yards by by having 2 more par 3s and 2 less par 5s than normal. That said it's still very short and only plays about 5300 yards. Even with the right number of par 5s and shots it'd only be 5800 yards yet it's course rating would be about 68.0 under your system.

The fairways themselves are actually no narrower than the other course it just feels like it because you have to go round things. Obviously you've seen that par 3 that I described earlier and you play that twice. This is the tee off you have for both your par 5s:

Again you tee off from the blue X. Obviously any kind of duff or top and you're in the pond and teeing it up again. You can see from the shadows that the 2 red Xs are pretty big trees - they're actually mature Oaks and you need to get between them. White marks the Out of Bounds so you have to take this route. If you don't draw the ball you'll end up in the area of that red circle and you're blocked out by the trees in front of you and your next shot is back the way you came - you have to be left side of the fairway or lay back a bit. I'll take the ditch on now and then if the wind's right but it calls for a good 270 yard carry. I've seen visitors eventually resort to a 9 iron over the oak tree having hit one or other a few times. You obviously play this tee twice in your round.

That's why it's a fun course. It's like a golf course only smaller but calls for a bit of thought (and control over your ball flight). This hole calls for a draw and there's only really one option. The par 3 before is really a fade or you bring the out of bounds into play. There's a really short par 4 which has to be a draw, it's a sharp dogleg left with trees straight on and a longer par 4 playing 420ish which sweeps right, it also has out of bounds left and right which is downright unfair. Every par 4 but one and the par 5 have tree lined ditches right across the fairway that you have to go over. If you're a 'topper' you're going to struggle. The point is this course doesn't defend itself with length because it doesn't have any but I've been with visitors who walk off at the end shaking their heads having failed miserably to play to their handicap. It's a fun course to play but the length of it has nothing to do with how difficult or easy it is.

[Nosevi]

I've been out on the course this morning thinking about how to respond to the request for more info about where I play etc and I'm a little reticent..........Maybe I'll feel differently in a year or so but for now, right at the start I'd like to stay a bit 'coy' about it if that's ok? Hope that doesn't disappoint you I'm just not really the sort of person who likes the attention and certainly don't want people discussing it every time I hit a shank off the first tee.

Well, that was reasonably unsuccessful as someone on here found my Gamegolf account and is following me already. And I thought I could stay anonymous but didn't figure on people's curiosity and I guess it's not hard to look over a few posts and work it out if you really want to.

The small club that I practice on a lot is called Pottergate Golf Club and the bigger one is called Blankney Golf Club, both in Lincolnshire in England. Talking fairways and greens as we are, my fairways at Blankney are actually a bit better than Pottergate (73.8 at Blankney vs 70.0% at Potter) but my greens in reg is higher at Potter - 64.4% vs 51.9% at Blankney by virtue of being that much closer to them. In reality Pottergate is an unusual course being that short but with some tricky shots whereas Blankney is a more sensible measure of my stats when it comes to fairways and greens.

The websites of both courses to save you looking them up:

http://www.pottergategolfclub.co.uk/home

http://www.blankneygolfclub.co.uk/