Jim Furyk's Struggles to Close Out Tournaments

[billchao]

http://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/jim-furyk-what-his-inability-seal-deal?simple=1

Quote:

Before March 2012, Furyk converted 10 of 17 third-round leads into victories. Then at Innisbrook, an event he'd won two years earlier, he entered Sunday tied at the top with Retief Goosen and shot 69—only to lose in a four-man playoff to Luke Donald. Goosen, by the way, stumbled home with a 75. Hey, it's golf. Stuff happens.

The next two lose-from-ahead defeats would reveal Furyk's vulnerability in ways we had never seen. He began the final round of the '12 U.S. Open at Olympic with 11 pars and a bogey, then bogeyed three of the last six holes to finish two back. The shot everyone remembers is the 3-wood he snapped into the trees off the 16th tee, which had been moved up 96 yards for the final round. USGA executive director Mike Davis elected not to inform the players that the usually mammoth par-5 had been shortened to 574 yards. Furyk bogeyed the hole and tied for fourth, two shots back of Webb Simpson.

"There is no way to prepare for a hundred-yard change," Furyk said after the round. "To get to a tee where the fairway now makes a [sharp-left] turn—I was unprepared and didn't know where to hit the ball off the tee." To this day, Furyk remains annoyed that players weren't notified of the change, but he's also fully aware that his inability to handle the situation is what ultimately cost him a second U.S. Open title.

Jim Furyk is one of my favorite golfers. I think it'd be great if he could win more.

[turtleback]

http://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/jim-furyk-what-his-inability-seal-deal?simple=1

Jim Furyk is one of my favorite golfers. I think it'd be great if he could win more.

Most guys do not seal the deal when they have the 54 hole lead.

I'd bet that Furyk's 10 of 17 prior to 2012 was one of the highest percents of anyone on tour not named Tiger.

How many weeks in a row is it now where the 54 hole leader has not won?

To me Furyk is the epitome of the guy who gets every last little bit of performance out of his talent.

[jamo]

Most guys do not seal the deal when they have the 54 hole lead.

This. Jim Furyk has 16 PGA Tour wins over his career, including a major and a FedExCup. He's done just fine. The fact that at age 44 he's not winning like he used to shouldn't be a shocker.

[billchao]

Most guys do not seal the deal when they have the 54 hole lead. I'd bet that Furyk's 10 of 17 prior to 2012 was one of the highest percents of anyone on tour not named Tiger. How many weeks in a row is it now where the 54 hole leader has not won?

It's mentioned in the article: [Quote]Some perspective on 54-hole leads: They're anything but a slam dunk. Over an extended stretch, slightly less than half of all third-round leaders close the deal. That percentage has dipped slightly in recent months: Only 18 of the last 45 solo third-round leaders have gone on to win, and in the last nine Tour events, players who have owned or shared the 54-hole lead have come up short.[/quote]I'm going to take it at its word, so let's say roughly 40%? The fact that Furyk has gone 0 for the last 9 or something does stand out a bit. [quote name="turtleback" url="/t/81017/jim-furyks-struggles-to-close-out-touraments#post_1120500"]To me Furyk is the epitome of the guy who gets every last little bit of performance out of his talent.   [/quote]That's why he's one of my favorites. He doesn't have the physical skills that others have, yet he makes it work. He's ranked 7th in the world in OWGR at 44 and he hasn't finished any year lower than 50th since 1995. The guy has had a fantastic career, to date.

[turtleback]

It's mentioned in the article:

I'm going to take it at its word, so let's say roughly 40%? The fact that Furyk has gone 0 for the last 9 or something does stand out a bit.

That's why he's one of my favorites. He doesn't have the physical skills that others have, yet he makes it work. He's ranked 7th in the world in OWGR at 44 and he hasn't finished any year lower than 50th since 1995. The guy has had a fantastic career, to date.

Gee it makes Tiger's 14/15 closing rate in the majors look pretty good, especially since they also include 54 hole ties as well as leads.

[billchao]

Gee it makes Tiger's 14/15 closing rate in the majors look pretty good, especially since they also include 54 hole ties as well as leads.

Yes, it's unreal.

This thought just occurred to me: Jim Furyk won 10 out of 17 (58.8%) events when he was the 54-hole leader, prior to 2012. Then he goes 0 for 9. That's not an anomaly at all, it's simple regression to the mean (10/26 = 38.5%)

[golfcarte]

You wouldn't think of Furyk as simply a human ATM. He does have a major under his belt. But in my opinion, winning the Fed Ex Cup was the worst thing to happen to him. He hasn't won since. I couldn't imagine once you played for and won $10 million, everything else would seem like a letdown. But it hasn't seemed to bother Brandt Snedeker though. But it seems Snedeker is the exception, rather than the rule.

The commerical with Furyk and his wife keeps playing through my head. She mentions setting up a foundation in 2010, ironically enough, the same year he won the Cup, and probably a direct result of winning the Cup. I would assume he would have had to take on more responsibilites having the foundation, not knowing if it has affected his play, but it has seemed to affect him closing the deal.

[dkolo]

You wouldn't think of Furyk as simply a human ATM. He does have a major under his belt. But in my opinion, winning the Fed Ex Cup was the worst thing to happen to him. He hasn't won since. I couldn't imagine once you played for and won $10 million, everything else would seem like a letdown. But it hasn't seemed to bother Brandt Snedeker though. But it seems Snedeker is the exception, rather than the rule.  The commerical with Furyk and his wife keeps playing through my head. She mentions setting up a foundation in 2010, ironically enough, the same year he won the Cup, and probably a direct result of winning the Cup. I would assume he would have had to take on more responsibilites having the foundation, not knowing if it has affected his play, but it has seemed to affect him closing the deal.

These kinda sound like "post-hoc, ergo propter-hoc" rationalizations. Winning is hard and he's not getting younger. That he's been as competitive as he's been is a huge achievement.

[phan52]

How is Furyk still ranked in the top ten of the World Rankings? He hasn't won since 2010, while Jimmy Walker just won for the 5th time in the last 30 months and is still ranked behind him.

[dkolo]

How is Furyk still ranked in the top ten of the World Rankings? He hasn't won since 2010, while Jimmy Walker just won for the 5th time in the last 30 months and is still ranked behind him.

My OWGR formula knowledge is fuzzy, but Jimmy Walker played in and won a bunch of weak field events. Might have something to do with it?

[golfcarte]

These kinda sound like "post-hoc, ergo propter-hoc" rationalizations. Winning is hard and he's not getting younger. That he's been as competitive as he's been is a huge achievement.

i guess i tend to forget that furyk is pushing 45. in comparison, arnie won his last tournament at 43. but having been as close to victory as many times as he has lately, wouldn't the expectation reasonably be, that he could've/should've won at least a couple that he didn't, regardless of age? we tend to want more from our better players, be it fairly or unfairly.

[phan52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by phan52

How is Furyk still ranked in the top ten of the World Rankings? He hasn't won since 2010, while Jimmy Walker just won for the 5th time in the last 30 months and is still ranked behind him.

Originally Posted by dkolo

My OWGR formula knowledge is fuzzy, but Jimmy Walker played in and won a bunch of weak field events. Might have something to do with it?

Jimmy Walker also had top tens in 3 of the 4 Majors in 2014 on top of his wins. Furyk has some nice finishes in Majors, but Furyk has played in many "weak field events" as well and has zero to show for it. The formula is "fuzzy" indeed. I think the eye test certainly would suggest that Jimmy Walker is a better player than Jim Furyk right now.

[dkolo]

Jimmy Walker also had top tens in 3 of the 4 Majors in 2014 on top of his wins. Furyk has some nice finishes in Majors, but Furyk has played in many "weak field events" as well and has zero to show for it. The formula is "fuzzy" indeed. I think the eye test certainly would suggest that Jimmy Walker is a better player than Jim Furyk right now.

Speculating is dumb, so I looked it up. Furyk has a ton of very high finishes in high profile events. Walker has wins and one top 2 that gives him points, but otherwise it's low top-10s and mediocre finishes. Furyk had 4 runner up finishes and 4 more top-5s, just last year. So there you have it.

Furyk

http://www.owgr.com/Ranking/PlayerProfile.aspx?playerID=2881

Walker

http://www.owgr.com/Ranking/PlayerProfile.aspx?playerID=7293

[Ferguson]

I can’t stand Jim Furyk. Just kidding. Jim has always been a solid player. A strong finisher- no. He’s blown some leads, but he won a US OPEN. I think he is doing well for his age. A great career and good man.

[phan52]

Speculating is dumb, so I looked it up. Furyk has a ton of very high finishes in high profile events. Walker has wins and one top 2 that gives him points, but otherwise it's low top-10s and mediocre finishes. Furyk had 4 runner up finishes and 4 more top-5s, just last year. So there you have it.

Furyk

http://www.owgr.com/Ranking/PlayerProfile.aspx?playerID=2881

Walker

http://www.owgr.com/Ranking/PlayerProfile.aspx?playerID=7293

I'll take the wins. Furyk has had plenty of opportunities to win in the last five years and hasn't been able to deliver, including your "weak field" events. Plus Walker was one of the few Americans to win singles in the Ryder Cup, while Furyk choked up the lead in the last two Ryder Cup singles against Sergio. Walker had more points in 2014 than Furyk had in 2012-14 combined. Maybe Furyk will prove me wrong in 2015 but his recent past history is that of a guy who can't win.

[dkolo]

I'll take the wins. Furyk has had plenty of opportunities to win in the last five years and hasn't been able to deliver, including your "weak field" events. Plus Walker was one of the few Americans to win singles in the Ryder Cup, while Furyk choked up the lead in the last two Ryder Cup singles against Sergio. Walker had more points in 2014 than Furyk had in 2012-14 combined. Maybe Furyk will prove me wrong in 2015 but his recent past history is that of a guy who can't win.

"My" weak field events? Four of Walker's 5 wins have been the Fry's, the Sony twice, and the ATT National Pro-Am, events that historically have weak fields. The Frys and Sony are during the period most players take off for the offseason, and the ATT Pro-Am has 6+ hour rounds and players don't want to deal with the celebrity pairings. I don't have a horse in this race, but you asked why Furyk was ranked over Walker and I told you.

As for Furyk, you're confusing "can't win" and "hasn't won." All recent history has shown is that he hasn't won. These things happen. As for the Ryder Cup, you're extrapolating a lot from a tiny sample. Spieth, Watson, and Fowler also lost their singles matches. I wouldn't call them chokers.

[Golfingdad]

I'll take the wins. Furyk has had plenty of opportunities to win in the last five years and hasn't been able to deliver, including your "weak field" events. Plus Walker was one of the few Americans to win singles in the Ryder Cup, while Furyk choked up the lead in the last two Ryder Cup singles against Sergio. Walker had more points in 2014 than Furyk had in 2012-14 combined. Maybe Furyk will prove me wrong in 2015 but his recent past history is that of a guy who can't win.

"My" weak field events? Four of Walker's 5 wins have been the Fry's, the Sony twice, and the ATT National Pro-Am, events that historically have weak fields. The Frys and Sony are during the period most players take off for the offseason, and the ATT Pro-Am has 6+ hour rounds and players don't want to deal with the celebrity pairings. I don't have a horse in this race, but you asked why Furyk was ranked over Walker and I told you.

As for Furyk, you're confusing "can't win" and "hasn't won." All recent history has shown is that he hasn't won. These things happen. As for the Ryder Cup, you're extrapolating a lot from a tiny sample. Spieth, Watson, and Fowler also lost their singles matches. I wouldn't call them chokers.

No real opinion on this discussion other than ... is there really a such thing as a weak field on the PGA tour these days?  Other than, perhaps, the Puerto Rico type events that occur simultaneously to the WGCs.

[3putter]

No real opinion on this discussion other than ... is there really a such thing as a weak field on the PGA tour these days?  Other than, perhaps, the Puerto Rico type events that occur simultaneously to the WGCs.

Well, yes...relatively speaking.