To catch a sandbagger....

[No Mulligans]

The round that made me even want to investigate was that he shot 7 strokes under his course index during a match... net 65 on a tough par 72 course.  That got me wondering about what the odds are of shooting that low.  Pope of Slope put it at 552 to 1.

These after the fact odds can be tricky to interpret.  552 to 1?  Play 10 or so tournaments with 50 or so players and it's pretty likely in one of those tournaments for one of those players that they'll have this kind of variance between their score and their handicap.  That would actually represent 500 of so instances.   So, the odds of that happening to someone over your tourney life are not 552 to 1, rather, it's actually very likely that it will happen.

[MEfree]

Over the 5 years, he played about 200 times outside, many of them are probably repeats of the same set of courses.   And CR should be the neutralizer unless his outside courses are all mis-rated as [S]tougher[/S] EASIER than they should.    I think it is plausible if you give the OP's guy the benefit of doubt.   I just don't see it though.

Even if his outside course are all rated correctly (which as you point out is not a given) and 80% of the 200 outside rounds are at courses he is familiar with and averages only 1 shot higher than his home courses, it is still possible that outside play could AVERAGE 3+ shots higher. i.e. His AVERAGE differential at home is 12, his average at away course he is familiar with is 13 while his average at away courses he is not familiar with is 23. Assuming that 160 of the 200 outside rounds were at familiar courses and 40 were at unfamiliar courses, then his "away average" index would be 15, 3 higher than home. If the % of rounds at unfamiliar course was higher, then the difference would be even greater. Another thing to consider is that he might be playing with unfamiliar players who he is not as comfortable with at most of his away rounds, compared to familiar players at his home courses. I am not saying this should effect his game, but for some players it might have a significant effect. [quote name="No Mulligans" url="/t/83143/to-catch-a-sandbagger/36#post_1167007"] These after the fact odds can be tricky to interpret.  552 to 1?  Play 10 or so tournaments with 50 or so players and it's pretty likely in one of those tournaments for one of those players that they'll have this kind of variance between their score and their handicap.  That would actually represent 500 of so instances.   So, the odds of that happening to someone over your tourney life are not 552 to 1, rather, it's actually very likely that it will happen. [/quote] Good point. I have had 100,000 and 1 M to 1 shots happen to me many times in my life. Of course, I have put myself in those positions many more times where the more likely outcome occurred.

[Big C]

If he's winning money on at least half the rounds, then your club's handicap chairman is asleep at the switch. Our club has a rule that if any player wins first place net 3 times in any 12 month period, their index is automatically adjusted downward - typically for the next 6 months.

Of course, sometimes that penalizes honest guys who just happen to catch fire for a few months, but at least it's a consistent policy and it's fairly easy to apply it uniformly.

[mchepp]

At our club there was a guy who had posted a number of round at various courses. They were all much higher than rounds posted in tournament rounds. So out head pro called the courses he had posted at and found he had not played there.  He was internet posting but not playing. He later admitted it and is banned from playing any handicap events for 2 years.

[Abu3baid]

At our club there was a guy who had posted a number of round at various courses. They were all much higher than rounds posted in tournament rounds. So out head pro called the courses he had posted at and found he had not played there.  He was internet posting but not playing. He later admitted it and is banned from playing any handicap events for 2 years.

Wow the embarrassment... That's just so scummy..

[meenman]

We basically play a net version of stableford (once you are over net par, you do not matter) - is it wrong that i putt away from the hole once i miss my net par?

[flopster]

The more I hear these type of stories the more I think the USGA should implement a system more similar like @Shorty says they use in Australia, there simply needs to be a more thorough system that requires real verification and do away with the honor system, rounds should be attested by other members and not just the same one but at least 5 different ones every 20 rounds. The only rounds I post are with my mens club matches every Friday, Saturday, and sunday, and these scores are attested by 2 other members. I wonder if @Shorty wouldn't mind elaborating how it's done where he's from.

[DrvFrShow]

http://www.golf.org.au/newgahandicapsystem

http://www.golf.org.au/default.aspx?s=qadsr

[bigwave916]

OP looking forward to hearing the report from Sunday's event.

I'm not convinced your fellow member is a sandbagger, but I've run across so many in my 40 years of golf, that I'm suspicious.

I play in the GC AM Tour where my tournament handicap is worse than my USGA handicap because playing in tournaments is tougher than playing casual rounds on my home course. On my home course I know which holes play longer, where all the trouble is, how the ball bounces around the green and even in the fairway, and most importantly the speed a breaks on the greens. The Tour is a pretty large data base and you can check on any competitor. There may be exceptions, but I find that most have a 3-5 stroke higher index on tour than they have USGA.  I think the home course advantage is a large part of that and no doubt their tournament rounds inflate their index.

I believe the rating and slope system is great and very accurate (as opposed to some of the opinions on this thread). However, playing the home course over and over again gives you familiarity with the course that a person seeing the course for the first or second time doesn't have. I play a lot of rounds at Tobacco Road in NC and that place really rewards local knowledge. "The Road" is par 71 and has a rating of 70.8/slope of 141. That place drives first timers crazy.  I played it about 6 times before I started to like it. I was with a group of guys from Maryland and we drove up to the 18th tee. The group ahead of us was just about to tee off. Guy steps up to the tee and says "now where the hell am I suppose to hit it?"  I called out to him "The line is over the black pipe sticking up out of the cliff."  He says "You mean you've played here before?" Why the hell would you ever come back?"  My point is an unknown course can be very difficult and perhaps this guy has played some courses that are tough to play the first time you see the place.

On the other hand, a guy that wins more than half the time has to raise some questions. I think you are doing the right thing in asking someone to look into it.  I agree with others that it sounds like this guy needs to be re-flighted or have his local index reduced. I'm not ready to call him a sandbagger, but I'd like to know what his explanation is.

Regards,

[DrvFrShow]

@bigwave916 two stroke penalty for giving advice? lol.