Tensions rising in the region. Turkey shoots down Russian Su-24

[Braivo]

1 hour ago, Gator Hazard said:

I don't agree that they would have consulted.  That is kind of like the when seconds matter the police are minutes away.  You don't consult when a war plane is circling over one of your cities or villages, you engage.

What if, and I am not going on a limb here, Turkey doesn't like seeing ISIS destroyed by Russia. Now you've got a NATO nation that supports a terrorist organization that supports the destruction of other NATO nations. This can get complicated really quickly. 

[rkim291968]

It seems like a chess game initiated by Pootin. Turkey called his bluff.   Now, what?   If there is going to be a WW III, I'd like to see it against ISIS/Al Qaeda and all its variants against the rest for the world, not Russian empire vs NATO.   

[Braivo]

1 minute ago, rkim291968 said:

It seems like a chess game initiated by Pootin. Turkey called his bluff.   Now, what?   If there is going to be a WW III, I'd like to see it against ISIS/Al Qaeda and all its variants against the rest for the world, not Russian empire vs NATO.   

Agreed, why have we not joined forces with Russia to fight ISIS? 

Turkey may have just chosen sides in the fight against terror. Would we dump Turkey to fight ISIS with Russia? I hope so. 

[rkim291968]

7 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Agreed, why have we not joined forces with Russia to fight ISIS? 

Turkey may have just chosen sides in the fight against terror. Would we dump Turkey to fight ISIS with Russia? I hope so. 

Russia never intended to fight against ISIS.   They jumped in to help Asad's army fight against the insurgents.   They were bombing ISIS as a token gesture.   All this may have changed after ISIS downed a Russian plane.   That's why US didn't join with Russia - couldn't, b/c Russians were not fighting ISIS at the time. 

ISIS made a mistake downing a Russian plane but, hey, they are crazy.

Now, things have changed and it is time for the entire world (Iran, Russia, Western world, Arab worlds, ...) to fight against the evils. Easier said than done.

[Abu3baid]

3 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Agreed, why have we not joined forces with Russia to fight ISIS? 

Turkey may have just chosen sides in the fight against terror. Would we dump Turkey to fight ISIS with Russia? I hope so. 

Russia is in Syria to prop up the Assad government against all the rebels..  It doesn't really care if it is ISIS or the united front against Assad or anyone else..  The US won't be joining Russia because they are not there to support Assad, but rather support the rebels who they believe are fighting both Assad and ISIS..  

Turkey would be instrumental in any ground invasion, so I wouldn't put my hopes up on NATO turning its back on Turkey.

[rkim291968]

@Braivo, I believe this dance that Russia & Turkey is doing is a lot more complex than what it seems.   Their interest in that region is in conflict as with all other participants. 

[newtogolf]

46 minutes ago, Abu3baid said:

Russia is in Syria to prop up the Assad government against all the rebels..  It doesn't really care if it is ISIS or the united front against Assad or anyone else..  The US won't be joining Russia because they are not there to support Assad, but rather support the rebels who they believe are fighting both Assad and ISIS..

Turkey would be instrumental in any ground invasion, so I wouldn't put my hopes up on NATO turning its back on Turkey.

Exactly, but at one point ISIS were the rebels in 2012 the US and NATO supported, so we have no idea who the current rebels will be and whose side they will be on in 3 years.

[Abu3baid]

3 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

Exactly, but at one point ISIS were the rebels in 2012 the US and NATO supported, so we have no idea who the current rebels will be and whose side they will be on in 3 years.

I have to disagree on this.. ISIS were never the rebels the US was supporting.. The freedom front or what ever they call them selves are actually still fighting against ISIS..

The first complaint that was put by the US when Russia started bombing was hey you are attacking the guys we are supporting... 

Infact the latest news is that the US special forces are being deployed soon to get all the rag tag fighting forces to start working together and training them to fight both ISIS and the Assad forces..

[rkim291968]

8 minutes ago, Abu3baid said:

I have to disagree on this.. ISIS were never the rebels the US was supporting.. The freedom front or what ever they call them selves are actually still fighting against ISIS..

The first complaint that was put by the US when Russia started bombing was hey you are attacking the guys we are supporting... 

Infact the latest news is that the US special forces are being deployed soon to get all the rag tag fighting forces to start working together and training them to fight both ISIS and the Assad forces..

+1.   And the rag tag fight forces?   Getting them to agree on anything will be victory in itself. 

[Gator Hazard]

1 hour ago, Braivo said:

What if, and I am not going on a limb here, Turkey doesn't like seeing ISIS destroyed by Russia. Now you've got a NATO nation that supports a terrorist organization that supports the destruction of other NATO nations. This can get complicated really quickly. 

No doubt it can but what Turkey did in my mind was pretty cut and dried and clear, they protected their airspace.  The repercussions could be very complicated but the act of defending their nation was simple and justified.

[rkim291968]

2 minutes ago, Gator Hazard said:

No doubt it can but what Turkey did in my mind was pretty cut and dried and clear, they protected their airspace.  The repercussions could be very complicated but the act of defending their nation was simple and justified.

... but the plane was shut down in Syria.   I bet Pootin will use the fact.

[Gator Hazard]

2 minutes ago, rkim291968 said:

... but the plane was shut down in Syria.   I bet Pootin will use the fact.

I am not sure of that yet, they were very close to the border, right now it is a he said she said.  Turkey has said the plane entered their airspace multiple times and was flying over one of their cities.  Just because they crashed in Syria doesn't mean the missile was not launched in Turkey at an object that was in Turkey and got close to the border when it hit, and then crashed into Syria.  The crash was 2.5 miles from Turkish border, aeronautically that is not far.  

Edited November 24, 2015 by Gator Hazard

[Abu3baid]

7 minutes ago, rkim291968 said:

+1.   And the rag tag fight forces?   Getting them to agree on anything will be victory in itself. 

That's the funny thing, because there are so many of them.. There is one big coalition with its self proclaimed leaders living abroad waiting to rule the country if Assad ever falls, but then there are 3 or 4 other significant forces not giving their allegiance to that coalition and fighting for their life.  It will be hard to unite them.

IMO Assad has got to go, the guy has so much blood on his hands it's not even funny.. But this main coalition is also looked at as a puppet of the west, and it will be hard to get the buy in of the other rebels without a piece of the pie promised to them.    

The real problem will be when ISIS starts controlling land and provides basics like water and electricity and food ect to the people.. In the end that's what resonates with people who are cut off from the rest of the world with bombs dropping all day and night around them. It's a fight against time first and foremost.

[newtogolf]

28 minutes ago, Abu3baid said:

I have to disagree on this.. ISIS were never the rebels the US was supporting.. The freedom front or what ever they call them selves are actually still fighting against ISIS..

The first complaint that was put by the US when Russia started bombing was hey you are attacking the guys we are supporting...

Infact the latest news is that the US special forces are being deployed soon to get all the rag tag fighting forces to start working together and training them to fight both ISIS and the Assad forces..

My understanding is that in 2012 the major forces within Syria were the Assad, Salafist (an ultra-conservative orthodox movement within Sunni Islam that is now known as ISIS), the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda Iraq (AQI).

Russia, China and Iran were supporting the Assad while the US and NATO supported the opposition.

The DOD decided that within the collective opposition there was the potential for a Salafist principality that would help isolate the Syrian regime and that is who we felt at the time was the best group of the opposition to support. 

[Braivo]

53 minutes ago, rkim291968 said:

@Braivo, I believe this dance that Russia & Turkey is doing is a lot more complex than what it seems.   Their interest in that region is in conflict as with all other participants. 

Turkish President: "We have kinsmen in the area that are being bombed."

News reports now say the Russian jet crossed into Turkish airspace for a few seconds at most. 

It is clear Turkey had their fingers on the trigger waiting for any chance to help their "kinsmen" across the border. Careful about these guys being a NATO ally. 

[Gator Hazard]

1 minute ago, Braivo said:

Turkish President: "We have kinsmen in the area that are being bombed."

News reports now say the Russian jet crossed into Turkish airspace for a few seconds at most. 

It is clear Turkey had their fingers on the trigger waiting for any chance to help their "kinsmen" across the border. Careful about these guys being a NATO ally. 

I still am of the thought that Russia likes to play these games; they can't expect to have a perfect record doing so.  If you are going to dart back and forth across someones border multiple times and have been warned multiple times eventually something like this is going to happen.  

[Abu3baid]

21 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

My understanding is that in 2012 the major forces within Syria were the Assad, Salafist (an ultra-conservative orthodox movement within Sunni Islam that is now known as ISIS), the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda Iraq (AQI).

Russia, China and Iran were supporting the Assad while the US and NATO supported the opposition.

The DOD decided that within the collective opposition there was the potential for a Salafist principality that would help isolate the Syrian regime and that is who we felt at the time was the best group of the opposition to support. 

I'm not sure where you get this information from, the salafists?  The people on the ground were mostly regular people and the soldiers who split from the army when the Assad government started killing the peaceful protesters.  Later on maybe other groups started forming and calling themselves different names, and eventually ISIS started sending generals and soldiers into Syria after taking swaths of land.

Just a quick search on google and you can get a good idea of who the coalition is made up of and it doesn't mention the word salafists.

"A broader opposition umbrella group, the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, was formed in November 2012 and has gained recognition as the "legitimate representative of the Syrian people" by the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG) and as a "representative of aspirations of Syrian people" by the Arab League.^[11] The Syrian National Coalition was subsequently given the seat of Syria in the Arab League, with Ba'athist Syria representative suspended"

 

[Braivo]

1 minute ago, Gator Hazard said:

I still am of the thought that Russia likes to play these games; they can't expect to have a perfect record doing so.  If you are going to dart back and forth across someones border multiple times and have been warned multiple times eventually something like this is going to happen.  

I don't disagree with this. Russia is playing games for sure.

The disturbing part for me is Turkey, a supposed NATO ally, doesn't seem to keen on fighting our greatest enemy - ISIS. The first chance to engage and help them and they did. This was not "self-defense" because everyone in their right mind knows Russia was not going to attach Turkey unprovoked. 

Also, they just "cut the corner" over Turkish airspace. lol.