where are the shots going to come from??

Well if you're keeping stats from every round then it should be pretty easy to figure out where things are going a little wrong.

 

FIR, GIR, putts, sand saves, chipping consistency etc.

 

Without info, I would hazard a guess at short game. Flippin' putting is almost always the culprit.

Always short game. Eliminate one 3 putt (if that is a problem) and/or get up-and-down one or two more times, or one putt one or two more times, there are your 3 shots. Easy as pie to say, harder to do. The rest of the game comes into play as well, but it all boils down to the short game. If you drive the ball better, then your iron shots might be easier (maybe you hit a wedge from the fairway instead of an 8 from the rough), which would lead to shorter putts, which could lead to more made putts. Each part feeds off the other, but it all comes down to what you do with the short game. You can hit great drives and irons, but if it takes you more than 2 shots with a wedge and putter after that, your are costing yourself strokes. You won't get up-and-down every time, but if you can do it once or twice more per round, you will shave strokes.

A close second would be eliminating penalties. If you hit one ball in the water/OB, there is a couple shots right there.

Like everyone else said, it's the short game.    We've all heard that time and time again, but it's helpful to understand quantitatively just what that means.  The following is from Aimpoint Technologies in their discussion of "What Does it Take to Win?"     I think it is a good evaluation of what really makes a difference in scoring.   While the focus of their analysis is the difference between winning and losing on Tour, the fundamentals apply for any good player trying to improve.     

 

In the Aimpoint analysis below, I really like their statement "Putting is what makes you birdies, scrambling will prevent bogeys."     That's really what it all comes down to.   

 

From http://www.aimpointgolf.com/whatdoesittake.html:

 

Comparing your performance statistics to other players can be a very misleading effort. For example, does it matter that you are ranked 100th in driving accuracy, 40th in driving distance and 50th in Sand Saves? According to our study those rankings are good enough to win. We have conducted extensive research to determine what it takes to win on tour, and use the results as a performance benchmark for tour players. The following table is based on 4 years of data and shows which performance measures are necessary to achieve in order to win on tour.
 

Driving Accuracy
Everyone wants to hit more fairways, but the statistics show that 66% driving accuracy is sufficient to be a winner, with a huge range for the year… between 45% and 88%.

Driving Distance
Winners only drive the ball an average of 7 yards farther than those in 70th place.

GIR
Winners hit on average 2.5 greens more per round than the player placing last in the money. The low GIR for a winner in 2009 was 54%.

Putts Per GIR
Here is where winners really start to differentiate themselves, converting 33% of birdie opportunities vs 17% for 70th place players. That´s twice as many birdies (4.5) per round. To win on tour, with very few exceptions, you need to putt better than 1.700 for an entire tournament. You´ll notice that the best ranked putter on tour averages higher than 1.700 for the year; however, most players are capable of putting this well for any individual event. The important thing is to be able to break the 1.700 putting barrier for the week, not for the year.

Scrambling
Scrambling is the other side of the scoring coin with putting. Putting will make you birdies, scrambling will prevent bogeys. Winners scramble at a rate of 70% or better, and when combined with missing just 26% of greens, this means winners average barely more than 1 bogey per round.

Are you telling us that as an aspiring professional, you don't know where you waste shots?

I've met dozens of trainees off 4 and improving players off 1 or 5 or 6 or whatever.

Believe me - you know where you are losing shots.

 

Do you have one or two wild drives a round?

Do you hit it far enough?

Are 90% of your chips in normal conditions leaving you a tap in?

Do you feel confident making 10 foot straightish putts? Do you make lots of them.

 

It's not hard to know where you have to improve.

But then  - you say you're off 9. You have a very long way to go.

The diffeence between 9 and 4 is probably greater than te difference between 18 and 9.

You might be being a little premature in your ambitions.

What's wrong with waiting another year. You don't have much choice.

Also, If you get from 9 to 4 in a year, that would be incredible. Why are you so impatient?

 

I dropped from 8 to a 3 in 4 months, without even practicing much more. Started teaching myself stack and tilt, I haven't practiced for a few months because of uni and have been playing to the 3/4 since then. For me the difference was hitting lots of GIR's.

 

 

So you're saying that the key to dropping 5 strokes is to not practice? Just teach yourself S&T without practicing? 
 

 

No, I started teaching myself last year. Practiced getting the main pieces down and since getting down to a 3, barely practice anymore. 
 

 

For me, going from a ~10 to ~1.5, there were three main things that I had to improve:

1) The most important is hitting greens in regulation. My putting numbers aren't great (though they're improving), and my short game numbers aren't much to brag about (I do actually consider myself a good short game player though, I only practiced my short game once all year), but I hit a lot of greens. Whether you do that by adding distance (to have a shorter approach), taking extra club and swinging easy, Stacking and Tilting, or whatever the hell Charles Barkley does, hitting greens is the most important thing to do. I've met scratch golfers with (relatively) poor short games, but they all strike the ball well.

2) Second was hitting fairways. I think I'm a bit unique in that I don't hit my driver any less straight than a long iron or a hybrid, so I tend to hit a lot of drivers. It works for me, but if you need to throttle back to hit the ball straight, do it. Then figure out what you're doing wrong with your driver, and fix it. Simple.

3) I nearly eliminated blow-up holes. Easier said than done, but a triple bogey is a lot to overcome. A bogey, not so much. This comes down to knowing when to take risks, when to lay back, and making sure to mix in the right places, as well as knowing your swing, and not fighting the swing you bring to the course. If you're playing a fade, go with it. Don't try to hit draws that days (this is something, as a constant tinkerer, I still fight from time to time).

I've been trying to get from a 3 to a scratch for 4 years but some of the reason it's taking so long was my own fault. I didn't practice enough and when I did I was practicing the wrong area of my game too much so I was missing the part I needed most. I always assumed that I need to work on my short game and once I started tracking my stats I realized it was my driver that was costing me 2 or 3 strokes a round. I won't say I'm Phil Mickelson but my short game is the strongest part of my game and it was covering up just how bad I was with the driver. I put some more focus on the driver this started hitting more fairways and made some real good progress. I'm hoping by early next summer I can make that final leap to scratch but if you don't track your stats it will be very hard to figure out where you are losing strokes. I agree with Jamo that you should never compound a mistake sometimes you just have to take what the course gives you and eat a shot here or there.

To me it comes down to mental game. it comes down to fighting for each shot possible. 

More times than not it's simply short game.  If you're hitting lots of greens, ya gotta make more putts.  If ya miss the greens, gotta get it close.